Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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2969. CCkid00
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Post 2947 shows the steering current for the strength storm Emily is. Where she is sitting the flow is to the north and there is a weakness between the two highs.

thank you for answering!!
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Quoting oceanblues32:
Just heard the first clap of thunder coming from the beach and i am about a mile away.


Just 2 claps and thats all she wrote... Let's hope these storms keep building..... we need the rain
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What does RSO mean TIA.
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Recon finding west winds, this appears to be closed.
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2964. Patrap
Marsh Harbour, Bahamas
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Quoting P451:
Recon's noted circulation (post 2934) puts it circled on the final frame of the rainbow loop.






Perhaps Recon finds other circulations.


Thats where I thought it was as is plainly seen on miami radar long range. I do believe there is a mid level circulation just a bit south and west of that point so it appears its not stacked at this point.
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19:07:00Z 26.600N 78.117W 978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 301 meters
(~ 988 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 270° at 4 knots
(From the W at ~ 4.6 mph) 25.0°C
(~ 77.0°F) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph)
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Emily continuing to grow organized on satellite.
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we have west winds guys
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Quoting CCkid00:


i'm gonna try asking this question one more time and see if anyone answers. i have watched in here since 2004....have only posted about 6 times. my question is.....Skyepony posted a link showing the strong east to west flow over Florida. i know everyone is saying Emily is going to recurve....but WHAT is preventing her from following in that east to west flow, over Florida and into the gulf? WHAT is going to make her turn NE? thank you!
Post 2947 shows the steering current for the strength storm Emily is. Where she is sitting the flow is to the north and there is a weakness between the two highs.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
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2957. Patrap
Marsh Harbour 80.5 °F 100% 29.91 in SW at 38.0 mph 3:19 PM EDT
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Good afternoon everybody.
Back before Emily is, but that seems not too hard.
Will she be back at all is the question.
Just here for a short while. Will be watching NYY at Boston in about an hour.
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Me thinks everyone is confused about where the center is right now...
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2954. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:


GOM track
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Quoting Grothar:
OK, which way is it going?


Link
nary a clue...lol
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Nice, light steady breeze with some stronger gusts in Port St. Lucie. Lots of clouds showing up the south and east. To my untrained eye, Emily looks a lot healthier and closer to S FL than earlier today. Tracking WNW? Just wondering/hoping if tonight will be a nice rainy night. Popcorn and a good mystery novel kind of night. Oh, and a good cold glass of wine!
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exEmily's travel-speed was 4.7mph(7.5k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(North)

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Copy&paste 21.9n76.1w, 22.8n77.0w-23.7n77.5w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.0w, 25.6n78.0w-26.0n78.0w, pbi, fpo, 25.6n78.0w-26.66n78.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
exEmily was headed toward passage over PelicanPoint,GrandBahama ~8&1/3rd hours from now

The previous mapping (for 12pmGMT)
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2948. CCkid00
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The "weaker" scenario is exactly why the storm has drifted closer to to Florida before the re-curve per the models at tropical storm strength. You also have to consider the very warm waters and close proximity to the Gulf Stream which is supplying lots of energy at the moment.


i'm gonna try asking this question one more time and see if anyone answers. i have watched in here since 2004....have only posted about 6 times. my question is.....Skyepony posted a link showing the strong east to west flow over Florida. i know everyone is saying Emily is going to recurve....but WHAT is preventing her from following in that east to west flow, over Florida and into the gulf? WHAT is going to make her turn NE? thank you!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The "weaker" scenario is exactly why the storm has drifted closer to to Florida before the re-curve per the models at tropical storm strength. You also have to consider the very warm waters and close proximity to the Gulf Stream which is supplying lots of energy at the moment.


The "oldtimers" used to blame it all on the Gulfstream coming so close to shore here.

This has been intriguing and addicting, guys. Gotta go get some work done. I'll let you know when the crows leave.........
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Waiting on the next set of obs, stuck on #14.
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The "weaker" scenario is exactly why the storm has drifted closer to to Florida before the re-curve per the models at tropical storm strength. You also have to consider the very warm waters and close proximity to the Gulf Stream which is supplying lots of energy at the moment.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8764
2942. Grothar
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

Been watching my radar of Florida...

is Emily redeveloping on my doorstep here in SE Fla???

I see a lot of clouds to my east.

Happy Saturday.


Pretty dark over the ocean on Ft. Lauderdale. Darker clouds keep moving in.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
I'm in northern Ft Lauderdale and there is just a hint of a breeze....
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We had our own bout of TS force winds in SE LA yesterday, too.

"The Lake Pontchartrain Causeway has re-opened after a 25-minute closure due to high winds and heavy rain.

The bridge was closed at 5:10 p.m. after winds of 40 to 50 mph were reported on the span. The weather was the result of a large thunderstorm making its way through the [NOLA] metropolitan area.
"
http://www.nola.com/traffic/index.ssf/2011/08/str ong_wind_heavy_rain_close_l.html

But, I can assure you all that wasn't a closed circulation, either.
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Just heard the first clap of thunder coming from the beach and i am about a mile away.
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the more i think about it,.. the nhc needs to classify this to give the islands proper warning.. they are already experiencing a tropical storm
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I am in Dania Beach which is just south of ft lauderdale and now we are getting 9 mph winds from the east up from 2mph and pressure is at 29.93 and falling... hopefully we will get some rain out of this!!
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Marsh Harbour, Bahamas
Speed / Dir 38.0 mph from South
Wind Gust 38.0 mph
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Time: 18:54:00Z
Coordinates: 26.5N 78.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 980.0 mb (~ 28.94 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 289 meters (~ 948 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.2 mb (~ 29.89 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 257° at 11 knots (From the WSW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 24.2°C (~ 75.6°F)
Dew Pt: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Hi everyone,

Been watching my radar of Florida...

is Emily redeveloping on my doorstep here in SE Fla???

I see a lot of clouds to my east.

Happy Saturday.
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30 mph for at over an hour now.. peak winds as noted at just over 40 sustained...
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Quoting Seastep:


That's a relocation. Had it up at Grand Bahama earlier...


Confusing little bugger.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
2929. Seastep
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
SSD still has the low on the N tip of Andros.


That's a relocation. Had it up at Grand Bahama earlier...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Uhh...
Wind
Speed / Dir 40.3 mph from SSW
Wind Gust 40.3 mph


That S winds on the east tip of grand bahama.....North wind per bouy on W..tip. if they find west winds south of island it should be classified.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressures not very impressive at all
Probably due to environmental pressures already being abnormally high due to the ridge to the East.
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levi if you are out there, since emily" remnants are shallow wouldnt she come closer to the florida peninsula , current steering indicates a WNW movement with the atlantic ridge continue's to build
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2924. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
During that last set of HDOB the plane descended from ~7K to ~1K
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Uhh...
Wind
Speed / Dir 40.3 mph from SSW
Wind Gust 40.3 mph


I go to marsh harbor all the time....miami radar shows they are on the
east side of the obvious circulation over grand bahama...moving NW
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not a very low pressure,... but that southwest wind at 40 is an obvious sign...
seems Emily is back...
I would guess at least a TD if not TS..
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expect an upgrade back to TS status at 5pm. IMO
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.