Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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4319. JLPR2
Getting interesting.
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if its "no good", then why are you showing it to us ?
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4317. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
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4314. Patrap
Google Slidell,La,,Katrina or in YouTube and theres lotsa footage from 05
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting NavarreMark:


What are ya talkin bout? Raquel?

Rule #1 - Here they are never really truly sincerely dead. OR

#2 - They're never really most sincerely dead.

As coroner, I must concur, that she's ... to be, if she ...

Red smoke, flash of green ...

"screaming munchkins"

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4312. Patrap
The Low Level Faux Emily has slipped Ne and left behind a Doppleganger..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
4311. angiest
Quoting rv1pop:
Are you, or were you there? Did you respond? Did you feed people from the back of your Suburban? Were you at the hospital where the doctors need to do amputations and the ONLY medicine they had was aspirin? I did not think so. Be a first responder and see it close up. -- Well I was not either, but I was a supplier, got day 3 pictures and then saw the aftermath. Oh, yeah, there was almost no TV or newspaper coverage of Slidel.


I was thinking there was an article somewhere here on WU that had a flyover of Katrina's landfall area, and showed the impact in the forgotten areas. I wasn't able to locate it though.
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gnomes are safe though
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00z GFS running, 12Hrs
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Wouldn't be surprised to see this 20 miles offshore of Fort pierce or Vero Bch in the AM.

Just not lifting out on all levels yet.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I've got you beat, 420,504 minutes here...

AHH!! You win.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

According to Wikipedia, that's a troll, not a leprechaun LOL
see post 4289
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New Center 27N 79W.

maybe 10 miles SE of that way point.
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4303. Patrap
Im 620 mths young
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting scott39:
Mine is in 28800 minutes.
I've got you beat, 420,504 minutes here...
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4301. rv1pop
Quoting flasooner:


I do find the above very hard to believe.

Are you, or were you there? Did you respond? Did you feed people from the back of your Suburban? Were you at the hospital where the doctors need to do amputations and the ONLY medicine they had was aspirin? I did not think so. Be a first responder and see it close up. -- Well I was not either, but I was a supplier, got day 3 pictures and then saw the aftermath. Oh, yeah, there was almost no TV or newspaper coverage of Slidel.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
why can't we feed the leprechaun ?

According to Wikipedia, that's a troll, not a leprechaun LOL
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously?

Until the existence of McTavish numbers are backed up with some documentation, I recommend ignoring.


yeah...kind of figured...esp when the link was to wik for troll def
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4298. scott39
Quoting tiggeriffic:


mine is in 1,471 minutes....
Mine is in 28800 minutes.
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Tropicalweather2011,
Yep with that map giving it a 3 out 12, the NHC will likely mention it tomorrow if trends with the tropical wave continue...(10 to 20% chance given probably)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do Not Feed the Troll
why can't we feed the leprechaun ?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


mine is in 1,471 minutes....

Woot woot? lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Recon had the pressure minimums north of all of the islands all afternoon. It makes sense that it has continued north, and has now left the convective mass. Reformation may be possible, but Emily is again a sheared system, just like she always has been, but this time in a different direction, similar to how Don was sheared in the Gulf of Mexico.


SW now 22-25 knts.

Pressure rising however.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?

Do Not Feed the Troll
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4292. Levi32
Quoting Abacosurf:


Looks like still a low to the north and west of Freeport GBI right now.

SW 16knts.

Is this a trailing trough line???



Recon had the pressure minimums north of all of the islands all afternoon. It makes sense that it has continued north, and has now left the convective mass. Reformation may be possible, but Emily is again a sheared system, just like she always has been, but this time in a different direction, similar to how Don was sheared in the Gulf of Mexico with all the convection SW of the center.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
My birthday is in 32 minutes... Woot-Woot.


mine is in 1,471 minutes....
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?
Seriously?

Until the existence of McTavish numbers are backed up with some documentation, I recommend ignoring.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?
here is the link of proof
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4288. angiest
Quoting tiggeriffic:


link of proof?


Those models are all figments.
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My birthday is in 32 minutes... Woot-Woot.
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Quoting lovemamatus:
Emily is very much on course to strike between Myrtle and Wilmington. Intensification phase ramps up, Cat 1 by tomorrow evening. Weak Cat 3 at at landfall. Please rush final preparations in these areas. McTavish numbers have actually increased to the 6.7 range, but may be overstated due to the warm SSTs. Dr. Bongevine will be making a statement at 2:47 AM EST.


link of proof?
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Quoting Levi32:
Emily's naked surface center is taking off to the NNE, now north of the Bahamas, while the shearing from the upper high to the north is pushing the convection and mid-level center NNW, a little closer to the Florida coastline.

Vis/IR2 Loop


Looks like still a low to the north and west of Freeport GBI right now.

SW 16knts.

Is this a trailing trough line???

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Quoting angiest:


Or avoid it entirely and Run Like He'll.
Cause if they catch you in the back seat trying to pick her locks..
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Quoting Abacosurf:
22-25 knts out of the SW. West end Grand Bahama.

Storm center just NW of there.




oops, beat me to it :)~
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4280. angiest
Quoting DSIjeff:
In a weakness, but steering is so minimal... and that trough isn't exactly deep.



Steering in the Gulf kinda reminds me of when we had Don. Indeed, right now something could possibly move right up towards Matagorda.
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Kinda weird the wind direction on this buoy is fairly strong out of the SW... makes me think the low level circulation is slightly more west than the latest advisory is indicating. The winds definately picked up in the last hour there though.

Data Buoy
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4278. nigel20
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My Tom-cat literally chased off a full grown husky just the other day...
It was probably about 8 times his body weight.

Hilarious to watch.
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Quoting angiest:


Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
well, here's one for the eye Wall
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22-25 knts out of the SW. West end Grand Bahama.

Storm center just NW of there.

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4273. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
To feel the warm thrill of confusion, that space cadet glow


Or avoid it entirely and Run Like He'll.
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Angiest, that is correct, she peaked in estimates around 64 knots, and T# of 4
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4271. Levi32
Emily's naked surface center is taking off to the NNE, now north of the Bahamas, while the shearing from the upper high to the north is pushing the convection and mid-level center towards a more NNW course, a little closer to the Florida coastline.

Vis/IR2 Loop
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4270. angiest
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1006.7mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.2 2.5
Emily Satellite estimate; apparantly not very accurate...


Wasn't she rated as a hurricane at one point? Which, obviously, was incorrect.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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