Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Mucinex:
WestBroward has got training. Exact location of the low is becoming less important.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
td emily giving us another ha ra but it really does not matter pictures from haiti looks as it was a wet one for them
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3017. Mucinex
WestBroward has got training. Exact location of the low is becoming less important.
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I googled it and I got that and Recon Systems Operator.


Thats why I added the part about satellite images.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, this buoy data is posting about 30 minutes late, but you can see the center of circulation is still a little east of Settlement Point Bahamas (the furthest west point on grand bahamas).

As of 30 min ago, the winds were still out of the north. If you watch this buoy, you will be able to tell if the low level "center" passes north or south of it, based on the change in wind direction.

NDBC Data Buoy
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Quoting chevycanes:
it won't be TD6. it will be TD Emily.


That isn't what he was referring to. He was talking about off the coast of Africa.
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it won't be TD6. it will be TD Emily.
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3011. CCkid00
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well the fact that there is not a strong east to west flow over Florida. Emily is sitting in a weakness between to ridges in a weak southerly flow. (will push her north) As a result she will slowly follow the weakness until the trough kicks her out to the NE.


could you look at post #2853 and explain to me what i am looking at...LOL. i'm seeing the clouds move east to west in that picture.....over Florida and into the gulf. but i also see in the steering maps what the poster means about it being steered north. i'm just trying to figure out what i'm seeing in post 2853. thanks!
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3010. Patrap
Confusion will now reign.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We may already have TD 6.


I wouldn't go that far. We'll have to see if it can refire convection, as its looking a little meager on the latest images. Not bad looking on visible.
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Lake Worth

Station LKWF1
NOS
Location: 26.612N 80.033W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 06 Aug 2011 19:00:00 UTC
Winds: N (10°) at 14.0 kt gusting to 15.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and falling
Air Temperature: 85.3 F
Water Temperature: 87.1 F
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Quoting P451:
Light winds. None yet sampled over 20kt. Multiple vorticies.

Doesn't appear to warrant an upgrade.

If it does it would be a very weak depression I would think. 25mph or such. Which they have and can do.

Unless they're willing to go TS based on a single wind reading of 40mph from a buoy - which I think would have to have been from a thunderstorm gust.




I'm pretty sure the stronger winds are in the south side, and where do you see multiple vorticies? TIA
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3003. Patrap
Marsh Harbour 81.0 °F 100% 29.91 in SSW at 39.1 mph 3:30 PM EDT
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If you are referencing satellite images, Rapid Scan Operations (RSO).
I googled it and I got that and Recon Systems Operator.
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Quoting barotropic:


Not confused at all. Its right over and just south of grand bahama...moving close to NW.


Matter of fact.....LOL......am confused...cuz recently it seem a bit more west!!!
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Quoting extreme236:
Interesting stuff from NWS PR:

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST WHICH
LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT CAPTURED
NICELY SHOWING A CLOSED TIGHT SFC CIRCULATION
. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS LIKE THIS WAVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. ATURETHIS
WAVE LIKELY TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FROM SAL TO THE NORTH SO
ANTICIPATING THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ONCE IT CROSSES 50W
WHERE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AND AWAY FROM ANY SAL
INFLUENCES. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING ON A TC TRACKING ACROSS THE
TROP ATLC. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
ANY STORM WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.


We may already have TD 6.
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I was right, this is fun!!! I was corrected, just like a squashed ant....lol
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Quoting barotropic:


Yep, she is currently moving NW and will likely not get to much closer to florida if she begins to turn more north.
She has been even more difficult than Don to predict. I wonder what kind of headaches the forecasters will get over the next few weeks when we start getting hurricanes and major hurricanes.
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Quoting P451:
Light winds. None yet sampled over 20kt. Multiple vorticies.

Doesn't appear to warrant an upgrade.

If it does it would be a very weak depression I would think. 25mph or such. Which they have and can do.

Unless they're willing to go TS based on a single wind reading of 40mph from a buoy - which I think would have to have been from a thunderstorm gust.





they have found winds higher than 25mph
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2995. hotrods
Here in Palm Bay, i can look to the southeast and notice the high cirus clouds faning out and moving in towards the coast.
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Quoting shadoclown45:
What does RSO mean TIA.


If you are referencing satellite images, Rapid Scan Operations (RSO).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2993. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Recon Systems Operator.


TANKS
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Quoting Goldenblack:
For all of you pointing to a center just south of Grand Bahama is. or the eastern tip of the island, or where recon just passed....please tell me why then the circulation shows up on radar several miles SW of there? (I am sure this is going to be fun).



recon showing LLC, on radar you are looking at the MLC
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Me thinks everyone is confused about where the center is right now...


Not confused at all. Its right over and just south of grand bahama...moving close to NW.
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Interesting stuff from NWS PR:

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST WHICH
LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT CAPTURED
NICELY SHOWING A CLOSED TIGHT SFC CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS LIKE THIS WAVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WAVE LIKELY TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FROM SAL TO THE NORTH SO
ANTICIPATING THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ONCE IT CROSSES 50W
WHERE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AND AWAY FROM ANY SAL
INFLUENCES. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING ON A TC TRACKING ACROSS THE
TROP ATLC. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
ANY STORM WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2987. Patrap
Bahamas WunderMap®
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
the LLC appears to be right over grand bahama island where that dry slot is and moving west !!! am i right


Looks more NW to me.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Post 2947 shows the steering current for the strength storm Emily is. Where she is sitting the flow is to the north and there is a weakness between the two highs.


Yep, she is currently moving NW and will likely not get to much closer to florida if she begins to turn more north.
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Quoting shadoclown45:
What does RSO mean TIA.
Recon Systems Operator.
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For all of you pointing to a center just south of Grand Bahama is. or the eastern tip of the island, or where recon just passed....please tell me why then the circulation shows up on radar several miles SW of there? (I am sure this is going to be fun).

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The winds are very weak and erratic on the northern half of the system. I wouldn't count it as anything classified yet.
i think they need to check further south i also see a circulation north of andros
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Quoting CCkid00:


i'm gonna try asking this question one more time and see if anyone answers. i have watched in here since 2004....have only posted about 6 times. my question is.....Skyepony posted a link showing the strong east to west flow over Florida. i know everyone is saying Emily is going to recurve....but WHAT is preventing her from following in that east to west flow, over Florida and into the gulf? WHAT is going to make her turn NE? thank you!
Well the fact that there is not a strong east to west flow over Florida. Emily is sitting in a weakness between to ridges in a weak southerly flow. (will push her north) As a result she will slowly follow the weakness until the trough kicks her out to the NE.
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Quoting Patrap:
the LLC appears to be right over grand bahama island where that dry slot is and moving west !!! am i right
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
Where direction is Emily heading? Doesn't seem to be heading north.


Appears WNW.
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Where direction is Emily heading? Doesn't seem to be heading north.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting Seflhurricane:
we have west winds guys


cool we may have ts emily that might hit florida will be rough for them as well as the northern bahamas.
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The winds are very weak and erratic on the northern half of the system. I wouldn't count it as anything classified yet.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
2971. Patrap
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according to recon the circulation is literally right over grand bahama island ??????
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2969. CCkid00
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Post 2947 shows the steering current for the strength storm Emily is. Where she is sitting the flow is to the north and there is a weakness between the two highs.

thank you for answering!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.