Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting extreme236:
Interesting stuff from NWS PR:

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST WHICH
LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT CAPTURED
NICELY SHOWING A CLOSED TIGHT SFC CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS LIKE THIS WAVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WAVE LIKELY TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FROM SAL TO THE NORTH SO
ANTICIPATING THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ONCE IT CROSSES 50W
WHERE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AND AWAY FROM ANY SAL
INFLUENCES. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING ON A TC TRACKING ACROSS THE
TROP ATLC. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
ANY STORM WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.


It's time for the activity to kick in after the 10th!
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Quoting IceCoast:
Those winds they just found were only from the SW at ~1mph. Can pretty much just toss those out the window.



Perhaps so. This storm is getting seriously confusing.
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3067. Patrap
Marsh Harbour 81.9 °F 100% 29.92 in SW at 34.5 mph 3:57 PM EDT
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting aquak9:


on the cam, how would that area normally look? very calm?
can be as calm as a lake or a full rage.

Looks pretty rough now I would say....lol
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Looks to me like the center might have relocated further south under the strong convection. Directly abeam of you Grothar in Ft. Lauderdale. 100 miles out
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Those winds they just found were only from the SW at ~1mph. Can pretty much just toss those out the window.

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Quoting P451:
Goodness... they found another one.



Top right looks like the best one by a long way.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We may already have TD 6.


Good post. Only a few inactive days left.
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Wondermap webcam pic of IABACOEL1
looks pretty TS like...Link
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Right now it appears recon is just looking for a closed circulation, once they confirm it has/hasn't one they'll tag back south for a wind sample.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Going back south


That looks like the circulation that they just found, and they've found 3/4 so far closed.
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Quoting Patrap:
Why does it look like it's heading WNW??

Is it?

LOL
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3056. aquak9
Quoting Abacosurf:
http://www.calypsobahamas.com/current_calypso_wea th er.htm

hope town has reported 40 MPH winds earlier today

sustained at 30 now. SOuth


on the cam, how would that area normally look? very calm?
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Just now the wind is picking up here in Ft Laud
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3053. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Going back south
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39.1mph winds out of the SSW, interesting
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3050. tj175
Wow its pretty dark and its lighting and thundering here in Pembroke Pines. What's going on with the remnants of Emily?
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http://www.calypsobahamas.com/current_calypso_weath er.htm

hope town has reported 40 MPH winds earlier today

sustained at 30 now. SOuth
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3048. Patrap
Marsh Harbour 81.7 °F 100% 29.91 in SSW at 40.3 mph 3:51 PM EDT
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Well, that looks pretty closed to me. I suspect she has risen.
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I know that before, while it was south of Haiti, it almost appeared to be split in two. Are we looking at that, or is it trying to tightly wrap itself up?
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3045. Patrap
AFR HH C-130 Tail Number 307 from Keesler is this HH Teal FLight
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting P451:


Can you show me?



http://www.rockybay.com/

Live shot.

Seas a churnnin.... 25 to 35 knts out of the south.
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Interesting question, I know that they were talking about the different planes that either NOAA or the NHC uses. Are any of them flying this system, or is it just the Hurricane Hunters?

Off the side, anyone seen or heard from hurricanecrab as of late?
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
NEXT UPDATE POLLS

For Ex-Emily:

A: 80-% chance of development
B: Stil 80% chance of development
C: 81%-100% chance of development
D: Tropical Depression Emily
E: Tropical Storm Emily
F: Other

For African Wave

A: Invest
B: 0%-50% chance of development
C: 50%-80% chance of development
D: 80%-100% chance of development
E: TD6
f: Other

F
and
F
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
NEXT UPDATE POLLS

For Ex-Emily:

A: 80-% chance of development
B: Stil 80% chance of development
C: 81%-100% chance of development
D: Tropical Depression Emily
E: Tropical Storm Emily
F: Other

For African Wave

A: Invest
B: 0%-50% chance of development
C: 50%-80% chance of development
D: 80%-100% chance of development
E: TD6
f: Other



E
A,B
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876

http://www.rockybay.com/

Live shot elbow cay Bahamas.

SSW 34 knts.

meanwhile

N winds in freeport 16 knts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =SPGF1
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NEXT UPDATE POLLS

For Ex-Emily:

A: 80-% chance of development
B: Stil 80% chance of development
C: 81%-100% chance of development
D: Tropical Depression Emily
E: Tropical Storm Emily
F: Other

For African Wave

A: Invest
B: 0%-50% chance of development
C: 50%-80% chance of development
D: 80%-100% chance of development
E: TD6
f: Other
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think they should head south. Those strong thunderstorms seem promising.


She's just blowing off a little steam, probably still pissed about the whole D.R./Haiti thing, hehe.
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Here is how I see it.
TD6 will be with us in 36 hours
Emily will reform in 6 hours
Franklin will form from TD6 in 42 hours
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi or Patrick,

Pull up the Vortex data message, tell me something. Is the report that we have right now listed on the site, current or from a former recon flight?
The date says the 4th. Also the location is still in the Caribbean.
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Levi or Patrick,

Pull up the Vortex data message, tell me something. Is the report that we have right now listed on the site, current or from a former recon flight?
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Quoting P451:


Checking the recon images there seems to be a few areas that are suspect circulations. Perhaps we have a broader circulation with a couple of tighter vorticies within.

Certainly no expert here but there's no one single well defined circulation there.

A lot of light winds, too.





Ya got me... I guess we will just wait and see what the next discussion holds - based on what they find out there.

Still a lot of sampling left to do as well. They haven't gone south. Right now not a single wind barb of 20kt or above.




I think they should head south. Those strong thunderstorms seem promising.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats why I added the part about satellite images.
I understand. If they don't mention in what context it was used it would be difficult to be sure.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I don't think it's quite a TD yet, but I'd expect an invest pretty soon.


Yep 92L
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I don't think it's quite a TD yet, but I'd expect an invest pretty soon.

Weren't we saying that about pre-91L (pre-pre Emily)? lol
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We may already have TD 6.


I don't think it's quite a TD yet, but I'd expect an invest pretty soon.
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I'd be surprised if that African wave goes from nothing to TD6. Just saying.
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Quoting chevycanes:
it won't be TD6. it will be TD Emily.


No I was talking about the african wave.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting extreme236:


That isn't what he was referring to. He was talking about off the coast of Africa.

my bad.
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Quoting Mucinex:
WestBroward has got training. Exact location of the low is becoming less important.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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