Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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3119. Seastep
Quoting Levi32:
Recon is finding high pressures of 1011mb and a very ill-defined surface center with ex-Emily. An upgrade will have to wait.


HH isn't where the lowest pressure is yet.

We'll see soon enough.
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3118. aquak9
thanks abacosurf- that is a big difference.

sure wish I could go play in that, though...
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Quoting Levi32:
Recon is finding high pressures of 1011mb and a very ill-defined surface center with ex-Emily. An upgrade will have to wait.


I said that an hour ago and got reemed for it lol

guess it does matter who says it :P LOL
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Bouy SPGF1 west tip of grand bahama 4pm N winds 12knts....steady. press 29.92 and falling
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Quoting Grothar:


If the lightning is loud, think how loud the thunder will be.
Deafening I bet....lol
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Quoting Grothar:


If the lightning is loud, think how loud the thunder will be.


Win
+1
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Quoting Grothar:


If the lightning is loud, think how loud the thunder will be.
LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


If the lightning is loud, think how loud the thunder will be.


GAH!!! I meant thunder!!! darn you!!!! :P
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Quoting Patrap:

Is it even moving? LOL
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like my thoughts of Florida avoiding hurricanes once again this year because of low pressure trough may just come true. Because the stronger a tropical cyclone becomes the more it feels the influence of mid to upper steering currents. I would imagine like last year we are going to be having a lot of hurricanes steering east of Florida and the rest of the U.S.

Of course, it doesn't mean I'm gonna be right, but hopefully that will happen. It seems to be continued trend in recent years.


How are you making this analysis? I'm not trying to be rude, I usually enjoy you're posts, but if you are going to say something like that you better back it up with more reasoning then stronger cyclones following upper steering currents.
It seems like the best in the business are saying the CONUS is favored for landfalls this year, but even they admit it's almost impossible to tell more than 2 weeks out.
What are you seeing different?
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3105. Levi32
Recon is finding high pressures of 1011mb and a very ill-defined surface center with ex-Emily. An upgrade will have to wait.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Early forecasts on the next wave, which a few models (particularly the GFS) have been developing, have it going into the Caribbean, which is something that no Cape Verde storms came anywhere near managing last year, so I wouldn't say Florida and the US isn't totally in the clear, IMO.


Well lately, similar to previous years, high pressure will probably keep anything that goes far enough South to keep going west into either Texas or Mexico. Compare the potential steering of this year so far to the last few years where Florida has gotten no hurricanes, its a similar regime.

Like I said, I'm not saying its not going to happen. But it looks to me that most storms that go far enough South will just keep going west into Central America, Mexico, or southern Texas. And anything far enough north will steer east and away from Florida also. Its looking more and more like that's going to be the case.

Keep in mind, as we head later into August and September, Mid-Latitude troughs only grow stronger when fall approaches, so I don't see why it will change too much.
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Quoting Grothar:


If the lightning is loud, think how loud the thunder will be.


: )
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Quoting Grothar:


Emily with makeup, we can see right through her.
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3101. Patrap
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Quoting aquak9:


on the cam, how would that area normally look? very calm?


Check out the previous days. Soooooo much more rough right now!

http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/rockybay/1/sh ow.html
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3099. Grothar
Quoting ElConando:


Getting some loud lighting near Aventura area.


If the lightning is loud, think how loud the thunder will be.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Afternoon all...in Charleston here...Just got back a little bit ago from Edisto Beach (a little south of Charleston)...not sure if it is associated with exEmily or not as it is close to FL now...but the rip current and the waves were unusually high today. The rip was bad enuf that my husband nor I were able to keep our balance at times (let alone our 7 year old) and we are use to the ocean currents. The waves would come in 3-5 at a time (bigger than normal) and the rip would suck us out under them...the moon isn't at a phase that would bring them up and the rain that was coming in came from the west so that doesn't typically cause that kind of rip...it actually was a weird feeling...thank goodness for boogie boards and their wrist cords or i would have lost sight of my little one a few times...he got pulled from me on the last set and got pounded, arms, knees and chest scraped pretty bad by the shells that were pushed in under the water...we left on that one...


Hi Tigger, probably good you left when you did, not worth the risk. Glad your son is ok.
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that circulation that shows up on radar is now over the western end of Grand Bahama island
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any indication of a vortex message ???
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3094. Patrap
Quoting Abacosurf:


Freeport just switched to SSW.

Looks like the Low is just west of them now.

Last hour was N at 16.


Seems to be,,
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3093. Grothar
I think this might change

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Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like my thoughts of Florida avoiding hurricanes once again this year because of low pressure trough may just come true. Because the stronger a tropical cyclone becomes the more it feels the influence of mid to upper steering currents. I would imagine like last year we are going to be having a lot of hurricanes steering east of Florida and the rest of the U.S.

Of course, it doesn't mean I'm gonna be right, but hopefully that will happen. It seems to be continued trend in recent years.
I think tropical systems will end up getting quite a bit closer to the sunshine state this year, as compared to last year. The Azores-Bermuda high is looking to remain strong. I'm not saying that storms will landfall in FL, just that I think it will be more likely to occur this year than the past several years.
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Quoting sflweatherguy:
Looks like where getting a bit of indirect Emily influence on the weather in S Broward Fl


Link


Getting some loud lighting near Aventura area.
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Man, the winds are changing in every different direction everywhere around Grand Bahama.
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Quoting Patrap:

Marsh Harbour 79.8 °F 100% 29.93 in SW at 32.2 mph 4:06 PM EDT


Freeport just switched to SSW.

Looks like the Low is just west of them now.

Last hour was N at 16.
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Quoting P451:


Looks pretty rough.




Recon heading south we should start to see something higher than the Green (15kt) barbs down there.



Try following the discussion before you "lmao" at people's comments.

Recon has yet to find winds higher above 20kts.




The only place showing higher winds is a single observation point.

When recon samples the southern side of the storm the winds will probably be found higher.

We have to wait until that occurs before we "lmao" our way to declaring a TD or TS. We also have to wait and see if the surface features satisfy the NHC or not. So far it looks pretty confusing out there based on recon data showing multiple circulations.







Its quite funny, its been dealing with multiple circulations its whole time and it seems like it will be that way till the end.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:


It's time for the activity to kick in after the 10th!


Its called climatology. Happens every year...
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Looks like where getting a bit of indirect Emily influence on the weather in S Broward Fl


Link
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like my thoughts of Florida avoiding hurricanes once again this year because of low pressure trough may just come true. Because the stronger a tropical cyclone becomes the more it feels the influence of mid to upper steering currents. I would imagine like last year we are going to be having a lot of hurricanes steering east of Florida and the rest of the U.S.

Of course, it doesn't mean I'm gonna be right, but hopefully that will happen. It seems to be continued trend in recent years.


Early forecasts on the next wave, which a few models (particularly the GFS) have been developing, have it going into the Caribbean, which is something that no Cape Verde storms came anywhere near managing last year, so I wouldn't say Florida and the US isn't totally in the clear, IMO.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's a good observationn. In a sense that can be true. Weather is often very fair ahead of and behind hurricanes. When a storm leaves, a ridge often builds in behind it, drying out and stabilizing the atmosphere for a time.


Thanks again Levi. Wonder if there's been any studies done on the relative strength and size of tropical systems and how far out they can draw moisture from.

We've been fortunate here in the Tampa Bay area to avoid most of the damage from 2004/2005, but it's interesting to see how we've still been affected even when it's not on top of us, in the form of diminished rainfall.
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Quakes shifted from NE to NW of PR....

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Ex-Emily has a chance of becoming a hurricane.
Ex-Emily will peak at_____.
A.80%-100%
B.TD
C.TS
D.Hurricane
E.Major Hurricane


If I pick the right one - what will I win?
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Looks like my thoughts of Florida avoiding hurricanes once again this year because of low pressure trough may just come true. Also the stronger a tropical cyclone becomes the more likely this will happen because it feels the influence of mid to upper steering currents. I would imagine like last year we are going to be having a lot of hurricanes steering east of Florida and the rest of the U.S.

Emily was very weak and shallow but it still is turning east of FL after all.

Of course, it doesn't mean I'm gonna be right, but hopefully that will happen. It seems to be continued trend in recent years.
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Afternoon all...in Charleston here...Just got back a little bit ago from Edisto Beach (a little south of Charleston)...not sure if it is associated with exEmily or not as it is close to FL now...but the rip current and the waves were unusually high today. The rip was bad enuf that my husband nor I were able to keep our balance at times (let alone our 7 year old) and we are use to the ocean currents. The waves would come in 3-5 at a time (bigger than normal) and the rip would suck us out under them...the moon isn't at a phase that would bring them up and the rain that was coming in came from the west so that doesn't typically cause that kind of rip...it actually was a weird feeling...thank goodness for boogie boards and their wrist cords or i would have lost sight of my little one a few times...he got pulled from me on the last set and got pounded, arms, knees and chest scraped pretty bad by the shells that were pushed in under the water...we left on that one...
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3077. Grothar
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Ex-Emily has a chance of becoming a hurricane.
Ex-Emily will peak at_____.
A.80%-100%
B.TD
C.TS
D.Hurricane
E.Major Hurricane


C
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But these winds are a little more convincing.
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Quoting Patrap:
Marsh Harbour 81.9 °F 100% 29.92 in SW at 34.5 mph 3:57 PM EDT
Looks like the center is just east of Freeport to me from long range radar.
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Link


Rocky Bay webcam.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322
Ex-Emily has a chance of becoming a hurricane.
Ex-Emily will peak at_____.
A.80%-100%
B.TD
C.TS
D.Hurricane
E.Major Hurricane
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3070. Grothar
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Looks to me like the center might have relocated further south under the strong convection. Directly abeam of you Grothar in Ft. Lauderdale. 100 miles out


Thanks for thinking about me. :P
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Quoting extreme236:
Interesting stuff from NWS PR:

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST WHICH
LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT CAPTURED
NICELY SHOWING A CLOSED TIGHT SFC CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS LIKE THIS WAVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WAVE LIKELY TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FROM SAL TO THE NORTH SO
ANTICIPATING THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ONCE IT CROSSES 50W
WHERE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AND AWAY FROM ANY SAL
INFLUENCES. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING ON A TC TRACKING ACROSS THE
TROP ATLC. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
ANY STORM WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.


It's time for the activity to kick in after the 10th!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.