Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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3219. Patrap
I guess the Alsakan Theory is moot now..

ACK!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
3218. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


"Backup" one. Link
When are you doing the next video update on the tropics??:(
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
3217. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:
...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY...
5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 26.9°N 78.1°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb


I didn't expect that either lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Circulation just off of Africa.



Very strong circulation, and looks like there is no SAL interaction, due to being blocked by N Water Vapor...
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Ex-Em has been on a long caribbean stroll for how long now....I've lost track of how many days we've watched her.....geez....she's just a teasing, trollin, trollop :P


Correction to word one; Emily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 062038
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-
LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Ex-Em has been on a long caribbean stroll for how long now....I've lost track of how many days we've watched her.....geez....she's just a teasing, trollin, trollop :P
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3212. Patrap
www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting CybrTeddy:
...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY...
5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 26.9°N 78.1°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb


Well, I wasn't expecting that.

Welcome back, Ems.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY...
5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 26.9°N 78.1°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Appreciate the link. Thanks.
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3206. Patrap
Emily Rigby

..Ahhhhh, Look at all the Lonely Invest,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting Levi32:


It may or may not. Waves need to be given time over the water before we can know whether convection will be sustained in the new water-based environment. This circulation seems to be what the GFS tries to spin up in a couple of days as it takes its time moving away from Africa. ECMWF 12z today shows it too but weakens it as it crosses the Atlantic. The GFS is more keen on letting it survive. We'll see if it's correct. The upper-level environment will be favorable enough, but the question is whether dry air will choke it.


I guess it's a wait and see then. Thanks.
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The Dominant Center is still south of Grand-Bahama Island...
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3203. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see no 92L on the Navy site


"Backup" one. Link
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Link?
Link
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3201. Seastep
Rapid Scan
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting jeebsa:
How bright is the thunder..

lol just had to ..lol
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3198. Levi32
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


How long do you think it will be before this wave starts threatening to be a TD?


It may or may not. Waves need to be given time over the water before we can know whether convection will be sustained in the new water-based environment. This circulation seems to be what the GFS tries to spin up in a couple of days as it takes its time moving away from Africa. ECMWF 12z today shows it too but weakens it as it crosses the Atlantic. The GFS is more keen on letting it survive. We'll see if it's correct. The upper-level environment will be favorable enough, but the question is whether dry air will choke it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OceanMoan:


I will pass this info on to my son, he wanted to go to Folly again this weekend, but after his jellyfish sting Wednesday, I don't think he will want to risk it again, LOL.


Folly is ok...we have found Edisto is cleaner and nicer...they have real bathrooms at the state park area instead of the port-o's lol...the water is cleaner, the sand is cleaner, not as crowded, etc...more relaxing...best part is there is no fishing pier...i like to fish, and when we do, we go to folly, but, it is an all you can eat buffet for everything...even shark, my hub caught a 5ft one out there a few years back...now...i don't swim there lol, just fish...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
Circulation just off of Africa.

enough fooling around the real show is to begin soon the gates of the basin are swinging wide open and will not shut till mid to late sept get ready this is going to be a long bumpty ride
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Could someone please post a link to the Navy site?
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Quoting Levi32:
Circulation just off of Africa.


The NHC better sharpen their crayons!! LOL
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3192. Levi32
Quoting Gearsts:
Link?


Animation is created by me. Images are found from RAMMB
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see no 92L on the Navy site


Sorry, there may not be, I haven't looked, I was just responding to someone else saying there was.
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Is Emily going to be forced to move NE? Flares W of it in the GOM, keep moving NW.....

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph)

From 292° at 30 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 34.5 mph)


It has the winds just not the circulation
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Quoting Levi32:
Circulation just off of Africa.



How long do you think it will be before this wave starts threatening to be a TD?
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If we have 92L then I'd guess we'll see at least 20% at 8pm.


I see no 92L on the Navy site
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BBL guys. Off to the mall for a while.
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3184. Levi32
Quoting IceCoast:


Thanks for mentioning that, people always forget. How do you determine the height? Is there a basic rule of thumb or is it a formula? Saw another met say it was ~15,00ft.


You can use Google Earth to measure distances from the radar site, or approximate using their radar ring distances. Emily is near the outside of the 124nm ring, which you can convert to miles. Think of things as a triangle. The radar beam aims up from the surface at an angle of 0.5 degrees. That forms a triangle once the beam moves outwards, with a certain height to where the beam is, forming the opposite side of the triangle from the angle.

We know that tan(0.5 degrees) = opposite/124nm. Solve that equation for the length of the opposite side, which is the height of the beam. Therefore:

opposite = 124nm*tan(0.5 degrees) = ~6500 feet.
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3183. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
Circulation just off of Africa.

Link?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Time: 20:17:30Z
Coordinates: 26.0667N 78.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 996.1 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 147 meters (~ 482 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.1 mb (~ 29.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 279° at 36 knots (From the W at ~ 41.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.7°C (~ 74.7°F)
Dew Pt: 20.5°C (~ 68.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots* (~ 42.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr* (~ 0.16 in/hr*)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Navy showing Emily and 92L but when you click on 92L it shows you Emily's satellite.


If we have 92L then I'd guess we'll see at least 20% at 8pm.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


Hey Ocean...yeah...it was creepy...even at the points when i was only in to my knees, the waves started pounding and i was covered past my waist depth wise... like i said, we are use to the ocean and currents, i have an app on my phone for tides and such...and the waves came in angled from the south...they usually come in a little angled but these seemed more emphasized today...and strangest part was the tide seemed higher today, it was only 2 ft from the high tide drop off edge 3.5 hours before high tide...thanks btw for peewee's well wishes...he is ok, hurt his pride some lol...another note tho was a woman not too far with us got nailed on 5 diff parts of her body by jelly fish...ems actually called out on this one...


I will pass this info on to my son, he wanted to go to Folly again this weekend, but after his jellyfish sting Wednesday, I don't think he will want to risk it again, LOL.
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Quoting avthunder:

LOL
Dazzling. Good thing I have my sunglasses on. Hard to hear the Sox Yankees game over the roar of the lightning.



I usually only wear my sunglasses at night!
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Emily is a done deal. over hyped tropical disturbance, which will only be a south Florida rain event. The emphasis should be focused in the EATL where there is a strong Twave which is forecast by a few of the global models to develop into the 1st CV cyclone.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Can anyone Confirm my hypothesis? I believe the circulation of emily is still heading NW or WNW.

Can anyone confirm?

i also see the circulation moving WNW
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It appears that a more dominant surface center is located farther south in the convective mass.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Good Afternoon.. from South Fla.. kindly could someone post the url for the buoy locations?

Oh and I know this isnt appropriate for this site.. But please keep in your thoughts the 31 GIs (and their families) killed this afternoon in war..the worst air disaster yet..

Thanks..
Steve
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Quoting jeebsa:
How bright is the thunder..

LOL
Dazzling. Good thing I have my sunglasses on. Hard to hear the Sox Yankees game over the roar of the lightning.
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Can anyone Confirm my hypothesis? I believe the circulation of emily is still heading NW or WNW.

Can anyone confirm?

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Why would they hav put a dropsonde in the GOM west of Sarasota? Oooo! It looks like they just found some winds.
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3171. Patrap





Harbour 80.6 °F 100% 29.92 in SW at 26.5 mph 4:29 PM EDT
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
3170. Levi32
Circulation just off of Africa.

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In any given year anything could happen. If the Blog had been active in 92, lots of folks would have been calling it a bust year until Andrew hit out of the box in latter August. I went through Andrew and could not tell you the names of any of the other storms that year because it did not matter after that. We just have to wait to see how patterns emerge from storm to storm before jumping to a general conclusion (other then educated or semi-educated guesses) as to what could happen.....One storm at a time.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9208

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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