Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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3269. hcubed
Quoting avthunder:


Getting some vivid thunder and loud lightening here in North Broward. :)


Good grief, it's a running gag...
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It's forecasted to take one heck of a turn.. and I don't see it happening.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Um,

We are getting pounded on here in Northern Broward County. Already seeing areas that are flooding, and areas that are getting ponding due to the heavy rains.


Guess it's a little more than drought busting then. Hope all is ok. Stay safe.
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Um,

We are getting pounded on here in Northern Broward County. Already seeing areas that are flooding, and areas that are getting ponding due to the heavy rains.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
While a decent estimate, it is a bit more complicated due to the curvature of the earth and a couple of other factors.


What! You mean the Earth is not flat!!!!?
Good point on that tough. Makes figuring it out a heck of a lot harder.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
What is all the talk about a 92L? Was that post-Emily?


The back-up navy TC page has a 92L listed, not really sure if we do in fact have a new invest. If we do, it is most probably the wave just off Africa.
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't know any general figures, but rip currents and rogue waves can propagate hundreds of miles away from the center of a hurricane, especially a strong one. I know that Igor last year produced rip currents along the eastern seaboard when it was 600 miles away.


thanks...rips and waves unusually high today...just asking
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3259. Patrap
....Brenda Lee, she's coming on strong

Radar Love
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
What is all the talk about a 92L? Was that post-Emily?
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Post Tropical Cyclone Eugene



Really is remarkably well organised for a remnant low.
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3256. IKE

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Quoting atmoaggie:
While a decent estimate, it is a bit more complicated by the curvature of the earth.



Erggh, all of my ability for maths vanishes during the summer.
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Post Tropical Cyclone Eugene

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3252. Levi32
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Levi...i know the size of a storm would make a difference, however, in general, how many miles ahead of a Tropical type storm can the effects be felt in terms of tides, rip currents, wave height, etc?


I don't know any general figures, but rip currents and rogue waves can propagate hundreds of miles away from the center of a hurricane, especially a strong one. I know that Igor last year produced rip currents along the eastern seaboard when it was 600 miles away.
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Not exactly astoundingly deep convection.

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3250. Patrap
For Worldwide Buoy Date,,just Google "NDBC"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Back Later......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9231
Quoting Levi32:


You can use Google Earth to measure distances from the radar site, or approximate using their radar ring distances. Emily is near the outside of the 124nm ring, which you can convert to miles. Think of things as a triangle. The radar beam aims up from the surface at an angle of 0.5 degrees. That forms a triangle once the beam moves outwards, with a certain height to where the beam is, forming the opposite side of the triangle from the angle.

We know that tan(0.5 degrees) = opposite/124nm. Solve that equation for the length of the opposite side, which is the height of the beam. Therefore:

opposite = 124nm*tan(0.5 degrees) = ~6500 feet.
While a decent estimate, it is a bit more complicated due to the curvature of the earth and a couple of other factors.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its because the NHC is located in miami and they did not want a horde of bloggers from wunder ground showing up at there front door

lol


So true...
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Quoting SLU:
I won't be surprised if post-Emily does not have a well defined surface circulation. It has never really developed a proper LLC throughout its entire lifetime.


It does, and it's not post-Emily any more lol
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3244. divdog
EMILY IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ANDWILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
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3243. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
The NHC would not have upgraded this back when it was in the eastern Caribbean with this kind of recon data.

its because the NHC is located in miami and they did not want a horde of bloggers from wunder ground showing up at there front door

lol
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Quoting RescueAFR:
Good Afternoon.. from South Fla.. kindly could someone post the url for the buoy locations?

Oh and I know this isnt appropriate for this site.. But please keep in your thoughts the 31 GIs (and their families) killed this afternoon in war..the worst air disaster yet..

Thanks..
Steve


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml

And your post not out of line at all IMHO
Thank you!
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Quoting Levi32:


You can use Google Earth to measure distances from the radar site, or approximate using their radar ring distances. Emily is near the outside of the 124nm ring, which you can convert to miles. Think of things as a triangle. The radar beam aims up from the surface at an angle of 0.5 degrees. That forms a triangle once the beam moves outwards, with a certain height to where the beam is, forming the opposite side of the triangle from the angle.

We know that tan(0.5 degrees) = opposite/124nm. Solve that equation for the length of the opposite side, which is the height of the beam. Therefore:

opposite = 124nm*tan(0.5 degrees) = ~6500 feet.

Thanks, appreciate that. I'm taking a Radar and Satellite Meteorology class in the fall. Should learn all that good stuff, but now i'm a step ahead lol.
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Did anyone catch this?

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAINSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

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Levi...i know the size of a storm would make a difference, however, in general, how many miles ahead of a Tropical type storm can the effects be felt in terms of tides, rip currents, wave height, etc?
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Is anyone else tired of hearing the word Emily? Every time I hear it, it just haunts me.. Lol.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
3234. Gearsts
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
92L.INVEST
05L.EMILY

East Pacific
05E.EUGENE

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST
12W.MERBOK
11W.MUIFA

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
So do we have invest or not? I click on it and it shows the zombie Emely.
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3233. SLU
I won't be surprised if post-Emily does not have a well defined surface circulation. It has never really developed a proper LLC throughout its entire lifetime.
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3231. Levi32
The NHC would not have upgraded this back when it was in the eastern Caribbean with this kind of recon data.

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NHC now has it as Tropical Depression Emily.
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Whether Emily regains TD/TS status, there should not have to be too much hour-to-hour speculation as what direction the COC may be headed because we have the added luxury of land-based doppler as long as she remains just-offshore.....She does not appear to be moving much recently to my eyes.....Looks to me like another stall that she has been known for.

I was typing when the NHC update came out......Guess she barely made TD status...... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9231
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Quoting RescueAFR:
Good Afternoon.. from South Fla.. kindly could someone post the url for the buoy locations?

Oh and I know this isnt appropriate for this site.. But please keep in your thoughts the 31 GIs (and their families) killed this afternoon in war..the worst air disaster yet..

Thanks..
Steve
Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
I am pretty sure its not moving due North...... There is some west component in its heading.
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3224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
92L.INVEST
05L.EMILY

East Pacific
05E.EUGENE

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST
12W.MERBOK
11W.MUIFA

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting RescueAFR:
Good Afternoon.. from South Fla.. kindly could someone post the url for the buoy locations?

Oh and I know this isnt appropriate for this site.. But please keep in your thoughts the 31 GIs (and their families) killed this afternoon in war..the worst air disaster yet..

Thanks..
Steve



Here's the Data Buoy on the far west end of Freeport Bahamas. (keep in mind, it only updates on the hour)

Freeport Data Buoy



Heres another data buoy to potentially keep an eye on (Lake Worth FL)

Lake Worth Data Buoy
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3221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 110806120000
2011080612
25.4 282.2
29.0 282.1
100
25.4 282.2
061600
1108061600
1
WTNT21 KNGU 061600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.4N 77.8W TO 29.0N 77.9W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS.
2. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE
SOUTH FROM 23.0N 076.0W TO 25.0N 079.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 350
DEGREES AT 10 KTS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 84 TO 86 FAHRENHEIT DEGREES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 071600Z.//
9211080612 254N 778W 25

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well maybe its because they are expecting the current steering to change, but I don't see why it will...

Also, I'm really not that computer savvy, so I don't know all that HTML crap to be able to post the information I'm looking at. But I'm basing what I'm saying on the dominant steering patterns, they favor storms still avoiding Florida like more of recent years. You aren't my meteorology professor so I don't need to prove to you why, it would be too much trouble that I just don't feel like going through.

And remember, I never said I expect hurricanes to avoid the U.S. I said Florida has an elevated chance of avoiding hurricane landfalls again. I live in Florida so I focus on Florida weather.

Ultimately, nobody should be planning for hurricanes in Florida based on anything I say because I am not a professional, but an early student. So I don't want anyone thinking they can put hurricanes behind them because they live in Florida and I think Florida has a high chance of being avoided again this year.



No, i'm not your Meteorology professor, but you should be prepared to prove your point to people on the Blog if you're going to make statements like that.
You somewhat cleared up your analysis here, i'm still a little confused at what you're looking at exactly to make that assessment.
Regardless, I enjoy your opinion on the blog, and I'm sure you will do fine with your degree.
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3219. Patrap
I guess the Alsakan Theory is moot now..

ACK!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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