Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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3319. jeebsa
Will we see a new blog soon?? Perhaps
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Tropical depression Emily.. LOL enough already geez
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Quoting HappyLebronica2012:
WHERE is this PRE92L located thats being mentioned??


Off the african coast.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Where is supposedly pre 92L?


Off the African coastline.
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Look at that spin in south florida on the radar , kinda cool like a mini low! 5:15 pm
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Is it possible that South Florida could get a portion of that Solid Rain before Emily moves out?
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Save your drool for at least a week . There are NO systems brewing in the Atlantic. To get your kicks, you will have to go back to computer games, facebook and asking Mommy for some money.
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Where is supposedly pre 92L?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting IKE:

Batten down the hatches....she's a blowin!!!!!!

Emily...will you please move up and out...soon.....


OK--I live in Stuart, FL--30 miles N of Palm Beach and I have had a headache since yesterday--getting worse. Does Low Pressure cause headaches--or is it from being glued to the computer monitor watching you guys?
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getting thunder in Miami now. hello, ex-Emily.
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Regardless of where the center may be, the rain mass is getting closer to the coast of South Florida.

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I dont normally do this... but if anyone is truly interested in forecasting as a volunteer position at a well established website... this is not my website either but a website that I forecast for... its not a blog or a forum so I am not trying to take anyone away from here but rather give people an opportunity to put there forecasts out there for people to see... please send me a message on here and I will give you more detail.


In terms of Emily... I think there is a chance she gets to 50 mph although a low one at best. I do not think she will get to hurricane
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Quoting SQUAWK:
92L does seem to have some decent surface circulation
and some 850 mb support.


there is NO 92L
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Tropical Thunderstorm Bonnie

Tropical Thunderfail Emily

Sounds about right.
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Quoting HCW:


Angela would tell you that MSU is a great met School :)


Michigan State University?
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3298. SQUAWK
92L does seem to have some decent surface circulation
and some 850 mb support.
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Everything on the Link indicates that "92L" was meant for Emily. The Gold Ovly text even has AL0511.

Edit: Origonal link did not work. Use this one and on right hand side bottom click "More"


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
3296. Patrap
One to save in Bookmarks if one hasnt already,


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) TC_PAGES Page (Ver.4.47.01) Development Team
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
3295. HCW
Quoting shadoclown45:
Whats a good school for meteorology im going into my junior year of high school and its time to start looking btw I live in New York


Angela would tell you that MSU is a great met School :)
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Quoting Levi32:
92L is a blip on the Navy website. A mistake. ACTF would have initiated it at 18z, and it's not 0z yet.

Thanks, though it could be our next invest as the GFS shows it and the wave behind it trouble in about 2 weeks..
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Whats a good school for meteorology im going into my junior year of high school and its time to start looking btw I live in New York
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3291. IKE

Quoting DSIjeff:
Emily needs a little love. Here, this should make them respect you Emily:

Batten down the hatches....she's a blowin!!!!!!

Emily...will you please move up and out...soon.....
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Quoting Levi32:
92L is a blip on the Navy website. A mistake. ACTF would have initiated it at 18z, and it's not 0z yet.


Quoting Patrap:
Confusion,here?

LoL

say it aint so?


Atlantic

05L.EMILY






Thank you Levi and Patrap.
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Quoting positivenao:
wait then what is 92L? the african wave? im so confused.....


Yes, 92L will be the next wave to develope off the african coast.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I would have to say that, what we are seeing in the way of Emily moving onshore. I know that it appears on radar that she is just stationary, however these are not afternoon showers, as they would be thunder and such. We are just getting steady, heavy rain.


Where in Broward are you?
I am in Oakland Park and we haven't seen a drop of rain yet. Channel 4 just had a weather alert banner scroll across the tv stating that due to Emily being a TD there may be localized heavy rain pass thru.
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Brief but 'hopefully' good update, read for my opinion.
Annoying Emily rises from the dead, time to watch off Africa 8/6/11
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3284. Patrap
Confusion,here?

LoL

say it aint so?


Atlantic

05L.EMILY




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
3283. Levi32
92L is a blip on the Navy website. A mistake. ACTF would have initiated it at 18z, and it's not 0z yet.
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Quoting positivenao:
wait then what is 92L? the african wave? im so confused.....


To clarify, there's no certainty that 92L exists. If it does, it is probably the African wave.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If 92L exists, it is not anything to do with Emily.
wait then what is 92L? the african wave? im so confused.....
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Quoting Grothar:
WOW It's grown by leaps and bounds.........it's a bird........it's a plane.......it's.................EMILY!!!!!!!!!!
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3278. Patrap
There is NO 92L.

Get a grip and a few good bookmarks.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
I just want to say this:

I am soooooo over Emily. Next....
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Quoting positivenao:
sorry im lost but where is 92L is that the wave from africa or emily?


If 92L exists, it is not anything to do with Emily.
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Quoting IceCoast:

What! You mean the Earth is not flat!!!!?
Good point on that tough. Makes figuring it out a heck of a lot harder.


Well, that leaves me out, 'cause I hated Trig!
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3273. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
While a decent estimate, it is a bit more complicated due to the curvature of the earth.



True. For practical meteorological purposes though, an easy trig approximation is all we're really going to use.
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I would have to say that, what we are seeing in the way of Emily moving onshore. I know that it appears on radar that she is just stationary, however these are not afternoon showers, as they would be thunder and such. We are just getting steady, heavy rain.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
What is all the talk about a 92L? Was that post-Emily?


No. New invest.
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sorry im lost but where is 92L is that the wave from africa or emily?
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3269. hcubed
Quoting avthunder:


Getting some vivid thunder and loud lightening here in North Broward. :)


Good grief, it's a running gag...
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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