Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting mcluvincane:


Looks like a playa in the making.





A beach in the making????
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3367. P451
Quoting IceCoast:


Searching for that 8th center!

I know they can do it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3365. P451
Quoting Hurricanes101:
This place cracks me up sometimes

before classification about 95% of the posts on here were calling that she be reclassified, she was back

now that she is reclassified its "omg why did they reclassify this?"

You change your minds more than Emily lol


I didn't.

*shrug*


You got to admit that thing is a royal mess.

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3364. techtw
Looking at the water vapor image it is very difficult to see how Emily will move to the NNE any time soon.


Link
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3362. beell
Quoting P451:


Yes, you may!








Really? I wonder what makes them say that LOL


! Thanks for the graphic.
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Quoting P451:
Watch them upgrade to a TS now.




Might as well go all the way.


It's just a little broad, okay?!

Lol.
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Emily has some warts(many vortexes), and she looks pretty ugly right now...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
3359. P451
Watch them upgrade to a TS now.




Might as well go all the way.
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And their goes my afternoon rain shower just missed me, love those things helps cool down the house.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
This place cracks me up sometimes

before classification about 95% of the posts on here were calling that she be reclassified, she was back

now that she is reclassified its "omg why did they reclassify this?"

You change your minds more than Emily lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
3354. P451
Quoting beell:


Can I get a 100 mile long surface trough?


Yes, you may!







THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE.


Really? I wonder what makes them say that LOL
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

oh i didnt know..thanks for telling me.
No Tx. Tropic Freak is the troll. Start watching him. He is probably the biggest name caller on this site. You're labled a troll if you don't agree with his fantasy forecasts.
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Quoting P451:
Just one more.....and Emily is an Octomom.






They upgrade that mess but they wouldn't upgrade 91L when it had 2?

LOL... can I get a WOW!! ??



none of the 2 were closed, that is a huge part of it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
3351. beell
Quoting P451:
Just one more.....and Emily is an Octomom.






They upgrade that mess but they wouldn't upgrade 91L when it had 2?

LOL... can I get a WOW!! ??



Can I get a 100 mile long surface trough?
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Quoting Landfall2004:


OK--I live in Stuart, FL--30 miles N of Palm Beach and I have had a headache since yesterday--getting worse. Does Low Pressure cause headaches--or is it from being glued to the computer monitor watching you guys?


Yes, low pressure (or changes in weather in general) can cause headaches. My sister often gets headaches when the weather here in Houston goes from sunny to overcast.
http://www.relieve-migraine-headache.com/barometr ic-pressure-headache.html
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3349. P451
Just one more.....and Emily is an Octomom.






They upgrade that mess but they wouldn't upgrade 91L when it had 2?

LOL... can I get a WOW!! ??

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And here comes the Cape Verde hurricane season...
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Quoting Landfall2004:


OK--I live in Stuart, FL--30 miles N of Palm Beach and I have had a headache since yesterday--getting worse. Does Low Pressure cause headaches--or is it from being glued to the computer monitor watching you guys?


I would say it is from too much computer time, LOL, that is what usually causes mine.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Miamihurricane,
are ants evacuating yet?
i heard that Emily was a major threat to them...
7 mph could make an ant go flying an inch. Maybe
LOL, they evacuated last week for me.
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Quoting TarheelNMiami:
getting thunder in Miami now. hello, ex-Emily.


That will be Ms Emily! She is back
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3343. DSIjeff
Shocking they haven't begun contra-flow:

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

not yet but should it come it'll be the one off africa.
oh okay plenty of time to watch then
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Miamihurricane,
are ants evacuating yet?
i heard that Emily was a major threat to them...
7 mph could make an ant go flying an inch. Maybe
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting tropicfreak:



Frank is a troll TX, he just is there to stir up trouble, no wonder he is Frank zapper, he zaps storms (making them disappear)

oh i didnt know..thanks for telling me.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
3339. MahFL
Has anyone noticed when a blogger links a sat pic, some times the one on view is days old ?
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Quoting JRRP:
Link
nice wave


Looks like a playa in the making.



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3337. DSIjeff
This should help limit the Westers:

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
3336. JRRP
Link
nice wave
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3335. ncstorm


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3334. Patrap
I can sense Angela about to hit the "Post New Entry" Button.

Standing by.. Houston
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
Doesnt look like it must be confused with the other ones.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
Quoting TarheelNMiami:
getting thunder in Miami now. hello, ex-Emily.
Right now I'm just getting showers but with a lot of thunder. Highest winds I've received are 7mph lol.

Feels like Bonnie part dos.
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by the way it looks, they need to make a new blog saying there is NO 92L
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Quoting P451:


Oh, LOL, they've found a seventh circulation?

Come'on now, why did they upgrade the system with such a large, broad, ill-defined, multiple vorticy center?

Strange.


I'm sure one of them is stronger than all the others lol.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Check fronts

Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting bigwes6844:
we got 92L already? wtf

not yet but should it come it'll be the one off africa.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
3326. ncstorm
Hey Everyone! I see we got Tropical Depression "Emily"..in other news someone shot a spitball at Florida on the 12Z NOGAPS

Link
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3325. P451
Quoting IceCoast:


Oh, LOL, they've found a seventh circulation?

Come'on now, why did they upgrade the system with such a large, broad, ill-defined, multiple vorticy center?

Strange.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Is it possible that South Florida could get a portion of that Solid Rain before Emily moves out?


Just got a good downpour indirectly from her. Check your forecast to see how much you could possibly get. I doubt it would be more than a couple inches if nothing changes.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
we got 92L already? wtf
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Going to go eat. Be back in 20 if someone else wants to do recon graphics.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Off the african coast.
Thanks for the reply Jolly good rancher mate :)
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Might want to think that over we may well have something in the east atlantic next week.



Frank is a troll TX, he just is there to stir up trouble, no wonder he is Frank zapper, he zaps storms (making them disappear)
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3319. jeebsa
Will we see a new blog soon?? Perhaps
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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