Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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3419. Levi32
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
Pat, how is Jr doing today?

I see Emily's back -
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

nope i can tell the difference...u are the troll onto my list.
He's also a trollbater and has hooked you.

Peace.
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3411. Levi32
Waiting for recon to find the "center." Well-defined NW winds are being found, presumably southwest of the center.

Wind shift to the northeast may mean that they are near it.

000
URNT15 KNHC 062146
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 31 20110806
213630 2631N 07759W 9628 00429 0111 223 //// 231011 013 018 006 05
213700 2633N 07759W 9615 00440 0110 213 //// 239012 013 029 014 01
213730 2635N 07759W 9640 00422 //// 198 //// 248013 015 039 019 01
213800 2636N 07759W 9628 00436 //// 198 //// 236009 011 029 011 05
213830 2638N 07759W 9636 00429 0123 191 //// 244008 009 035 013 05
213900 2639N 07759W 9632 00434 0124 194 //// 242008 010 042 016 05
213930 2641N 07759W 9630 00435 //// 193 //// 215005 007 /// /// 05
214000 2643N 07759W 9629 00434 //// 188 //// 262008 008 /// /// 05
214030 2644N 07759W 9627 00435 0122 193 //// 248008 009 033 009 05
214100 2646N 07759W 9628 00434 //// 193 //// 210005 005 032 011 01
214130 2647N 07800W 9627 00434 0118 211 //// 194002 003 033 010 05
214200 2649N 07800W 9627 00432 0115 227 210 192002 003 009 005 03
214230 2651N 07800W 9617 00447 0120 227 214 188005 007 000 003 03
214300 2652N 07800W 9623 00445 0124 235 209 171004 005 /// /// 03
214330 2655N 07800W 9630 00442 0126 233 213 140004 005 /// /// 03
214400 2657N 07800W 9627 00442 0125 235 215 124002 003 /// /// 03
214430 2659N 07800W 9630 00441 0126 235 217 067002 002 /// /// 03
214500 2701N 07800W 9629 00441 0126 235 212 070003 003 /// /// 03
214530 2703N 07800W 9629 00442 0126 235 207 071005 005 /// /// 03
214600 2705N 07800W 9630 00440 0125 235 204 078005 006 /// /// 03
$$
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
Quoting IceCoast:
18Z GFS continues to show the CV development.
36Hrs



From the 2 pm TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 21W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
True.

My point. Everybody cool it with all this premature 92L stuff. There will be plenty of action in the last week of Aug and Sept.


Mr. All caps no grammar though was referring to Emily though, not any sort of pre-92L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
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3402. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:


Because they're all the same account.

Oh wait... you already knew that didn't you wata dawg? :-p

Ahhh Emily... maybe she'll let me borrow some rain tomorrow. Been a beautiful sunny day so far.

Ship it.


was too lazy to track it. Just not worth the keystrokes.
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3397. Patrap
CONSTANTY

COMMING

FORCAST

..ahh,,but @ least they have FireFox and Spell checka' me lad..
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Quoting aquak9:


how do you know it's a boy?
True.

My point. Everybody cool it with all this premature 92L stuff. There will be plenty of action in the last week of Aug and Sept.
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18Z GFS continues to show the CV development.
36Hrs
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3393. Patrap

Oh, the frigging Irony..




ITSALLWRONGAGAIN: "THIS HAPPENES"

LoL,,ACk,,snicker,,coff...stitch in side
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dont think i ever got that upsaet over rain
oh one time when it spoild my fishing trip and oh when it took my house out and oh nevermind
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The wave between 15-20w is developing cyclonic surface curvature and should become invest 92L very, very soon. Convection is a little weak, but the convection it has is becoming better organized as it becomes drawn into the developing circulation.
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Quoting ITSALLWRONGAGAIN:
THEY WERE WRONG AS 37 TIMES IN THE PAST 8 DAYS ABOUT EMILY NEVER ONCE GOT ANYTHING RIGHT IT WAS HITTING FLORIDA EVERY OTHER 4 HOUR UPDATE FOR DAYS AND IT FELL APART HAHAHAHAHAH THIS SITE IS A JOKE BUT THEN AGAIN THIS HAPPENES EVERY YEAR WITH EVERY STORM AND FLORIDA GETS NOTHING BUT A SCARE TO GO SPEND ALL THEIR MONEY AT LOWES AND HOME DEPOT WHO SPONSOR WEATHER STAIONS
Get a life
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Quoting P451:
Come'on, upgrade it! You so know they want to.



Maybe they're waiting until they find 10 centers of circulation.



LOL! Thanks for the laugh :~) Pretty sloppy storm.
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Quoting ElConando:


Just got a good downpour indirectly from her. Check your forecast to see how much you could possibly get. I doubt it would be more than a couple inches if nothing changes.
Didn't you say you were in the Aventura area? If I was there I'd be heading over to Gulfstream for the food truck event. Weather should be ok.
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Well... The Sad reality of this system is.. that instead of moving a little more west and giving Florida some rain... it seems like it will sit to the east of the state.. and continue to tease us.
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Looking like TS Emily at 8:00
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Just flag and ignore, just the usual idiots we have to deal with on here.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
3377. aquak9
Quoting FrankZapper:
1+

The boy's got a point.


how do you know it's a boy?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Flight level winds..
48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph)


Doesn't that support a 45mph TS?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flight level winds..
48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
3372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
05L/TD/E/XX

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North Miami Webcam:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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