Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting angiest:


Didn't know I was that funny.

The name is angiest (the ST are part of it), but it is pronounced vote-on. Now, let's see anyone untangle that.
?????
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4367. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just wrote a blog on Emily and the eastern Atlantic. Check it out if you want.
Do you look for more troughs to turn TCs before landfall in the USA?
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4366. angiest
Quoting DFWjc:


LMAO! Angie you always make me laugh everytime your on


Didn't know I was that funny.

The name is angiest (the ST are part of it), but it is pronounced vote-on. Now, let's see anyone untangle that.
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Quoting IceCoast:
78Hrs GFS
whoever recolored these GFS images must have been on a really bad trip, or a really good one...
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Quoting Abacosurf:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Thank you..
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78Hrs GFS
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Just wrote a blog on Emily and the eastern Atlantic. Check it out if you want.
who ? ;)
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Quoting angiest:


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.
lol! Good one!
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Quoting lovemamatus:
Emily is very much on course to strike between Myrtle and Wilmington. Intensification phase ramps up, Cat 1 by tomorrow evening. Weak Cat 3 at at landfall. Please rush final preparations in these areas. McTavish numbers have actually increased to the 6.7 range, but may be overstated due to the warm SSTs. Dr. Bongevine will be making a statement at 2:47 AM EST.
poof!
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Quoting RescueAFR:
Good Evening from South Fla.. By chance anyone have the link / URL to the buoy locations?

Thanks
Steve..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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This is my 1st attempt at uploading a photo.

Near Tegucigalpa Honduras after Hurricane Mitch. There was a lot of damage from landslides and flooding well inland.
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Quoting angiest:


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.
is your roommate a caveman ?
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Good Evening from South Fla.. By chance anyone have the link / URL to the buoy locations?

Thanks
Steve..
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4354. SLU
Just had a minor earthquake in St. Lucia at 12:02am. I'll wait for updates from the USGS.
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4353. scott39
Quoting scott39:
The wave at 5W 10N is going to be the one to watch.
GFS developes this one. A long way off, but still something to watch.
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4352. DFWjc
Quoting angiest:


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.


LMAO! Angie you always make me laugh everytime your on
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4351. angiest
Quoting DFWjc:


Do they save you on your hotel rooms?


Dunno about gnomes, bu with all the geckos living at my house I should be paying nothing for car insurance.
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4350. Patrap
..a touche'

,,cool


Tyvm fo da Fresca too,,dey my Fav
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
4348. DFWjc
Quoting PcolaDan:
gnomes are safe though


Do they save you on your hotel rooms?
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Quoting Patrap:
Must be a Canadian Model obviously


touche...how true :) ...give that man a frosty cold Fresca
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Night.


Happy birthday! :D
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4345. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
you know how it goes, tell enough lies and you can't keep 'em straight


Particularly when you are using multiple accounts to do it.
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4344. Patrap
Happy B-day wnPR
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
4343. Patrap
Must be a Canadian Model obviously


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
Quoting angiest:


When this started showing up it was MacTavish. He likes to change the spelling.
you know how it goes, tell enough lies and you can't keep 'em straight
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
My birthday is in 32 minutes... Woot-Woot.


Happy Birthday!
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Good Night.
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4339. scott39
The wave at 5W 10N is going to be the one to watch.
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4338. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
Craig MacTavish is an former NHLer and current AHL coach...maybe he is the one with the models.


Do models like former hockey players?
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48Hrs GFS
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Quoting rv1pop:
McTavish was a bar in Seattle.
Craig MacTavish is an former NHLer and current AHL coach...maybe he is the one with the models.
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4335. angiest
Quoting rv1pop:
McTavish was a bar in Seattle.


When this started showing up it was MacTavish. He likes to change the spelling.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


The word of the day - doppleganger. Doppelgängers often are perceived as a sinister form of bilocation and generally regarded as harbingers of bad luck.
lol
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Quoting Patrap:
The Low Level Faux Emily has slipped Ne and left behind a Doppleganger..



The word of the day - doppleganger. Doppelgngers often are perceived as a sinister form of bilocation and generally regarded as harbingers of bad luck. (Wiki reference)
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Good night all. Have a great evening. Don't eat the trolls, they will leave a terrible taste in your mouth, go back to eating the butter.
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4331. Patrap
pssssstt,, lovemamatus



M-a-m-m-a-t-u-s
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
4330. ackee
I think the NHC may be force to take out their yellow crayon at 2am for the wave in the Eastern Atlantic
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4329. rv1pop
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously?

Until the existence of McTavish numbers are backed up with some documentation, I recommend ignoring.
McTavish was a bar in Seattle.
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4328. angiest
Googling for "lou mctavish" hurricane returns links to the comments section of Dr. Masters' blogs, and nothing else. (other than a link that is obviously unrelated)
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Quoting lovemamatus:
If Big Lou McTavish heard that remark, he would be insulted and hurt. Fortunately, he passed some time ago.

Proof? The 35 models you rely on are generally so far off its a joke. One or 2 are going to be close, and they are seized upon like a ballplayer having a good season. Are there any forecasters out there on this site? Do you remember and refer back to what happenned when the maps looked a certain way....or do you wait for the UKMET, BAM, SHI(t)PS or some other to cover your lousy "read". Pathetic.

No trough, no hook, only Wilmington. I want you to put your careers on ignore when Wilmington gets hit by Emily.


Bold 1. Ah, the old "everything else sucked which proves mine is right" proof.

Bold 2. Huh?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Interesting West Palm may get some rain out of this after all:
Weather Station
President Country Club, West Palm Beach

Nowcast as of 10:31 PM EDT on August 6, 2011
Through late this evening...isolated showers will continue to move slowly south through the northern areas of South Florida mainly north of Alligator alley. Wind gusts up to 20 mph and rainfall amounts up to tenth of an inch will occur with the heaviest showers. Mariners can also expect higher waves in and near the showers.

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30Hrs 00zGFS
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4323. ackee
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
maybe invest 92L soon
nice get early moedel runs on this the GFS also devlop another wave as well intresting times ahead
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Quoting JLPR2:
Getting interesting.

Looks a little ominous.
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4319. JLPR2
Getting interesting.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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