Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
Good afternoon, everyone.
Niceeeee. LOL.

*#64*
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Here you go! Bookmark it.
Link
Tanx, Ted... I got Raleighwx bookmarked a billion times.... just can never find it in the mountain of stuff I've got. REally need to reorganize my links list.... :o(... a chore for another day...
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3514. Patrap
WORNG 37

..does dat come with the Egg Drop soup and Shrimp Fried Rice as well ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
3513. GetReal
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Quoting P451:
Just one more.....and Emily is an Octomom.






They upgrade that mess but they wouldn't upgrade 91L when it had 2?

LOL... can I get a WOW!! ??

Best laugh of the day so far ...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
At least it's got a sense of humor....

Can we sue FLdewey for personal injury due to making us laugh so hard we bust a gut on the blog????

Just saying...

Wow. All I've done this afternoon is sleep... this while monstrous Emily is reforming practically over my head.... I can't understand it!


Remember. It's never too late panic!!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
3505. Patrap
AFARICA..a mythical land where Trolls and F avg met Students go to pay Homage to the Great Cantore.


"Ohhhhmmmmmmmmmmmm"...............
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting BahaHurican:
Tedy, can u post the link to the GFS site u r using? TIA...


Here you go! Bookmark it.
Link
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Looks like the fun is about to get underway in earnest:

CLICK FOR MUCH LARGER IMAGE

Uh-oh
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Teddy, can u post the link to the GFS site u r using? TIA...
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120 hours:

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18z GFS shows the wave train really starting up.


114 hours out, another well defined wave off Africa.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

First off I didnt start it blame frankzapper he mention who is the troll first.Anyways I dont say who is a troll as post but had to mention it.Anyways back on topic.
Correct. You didn't start it. But if you go check you will find I didn't start it either. Tropic Freak as usual started it. This kid thinks he is the authority on who is or is not a troll and he may be the blogs biggest offender in "suggesting" who one should and should not flag. He needs to control himself.
No, I didn't start it.
Sorry for the lecture.
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At least it's got a sense of humor....

Can we sue FLdewey for personal injury due to making us laugh so hard we bust a gut on the blog????

Just saying...

Wow. All I've done this afternoon is sleep... this while monstrous Emily is reforming practically over my head.... I can't understand it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
3841. Dewey, that is NOT funny....

[busts a gut]


Hope you have completed your hurricane preparations. Keep your head down.....God bless!!....you're in our prayers.....be safe....and/or stay safe....Safely.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
3491. Patrap
...Bueller?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
3841. Dewey, that is NOT funny....

[busts a gut]
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

ignore and move on.


Okay... Im sorry for quoting him.
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3485. Gearsts
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Gearst,
Ignore button is very useful, so you dont commit suicide over trolls
Oh yea sorry about that.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Gearst,
Ignore button is very useful, so you dont commit suicide over trolls


I believe he was bashing metstudent for feeding.
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back later...
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ok tks hurridean...i thought it was but by looing at patrap's last radar made me 2ng guess..
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3476. Torgen
Quoting Patrap:





No no no no no.

No. Not allowed.

I had a truckload of red mulch and garden soil delivered today, and got all of 20 minutes towards moving it out of the front yard before the thunder started and I had to throw a tarp over it. I don't want it being washed down the gutters. I'm late getting the fall garden started. :(
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What's up with the GFS' coloring scheme on Raleigh's site? Looks like a bag of Fruit Loops to me.
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Hmmm, well...

Anyhows, evening all. Word of advice, don't go cutting down small trees with a handsaw in 104 degrees. A good hour nap and two bottles of water cured that mistake. But my yard does look better now.

I saw earlier there are three red circles of interest coming across the Atlantic. You can tell August has begun.
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nolehead,shes moving Northwest, and will not hit Florida...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how is it there baha some showers and a breeze
Showers have been mostly done since about noon... breeze has been an occasional sustained 5 kts or so in my area... dunno what the airport is getting; that's at the Wrn end of the island.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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