Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting Twinkster:
imo emily shouldn't even be a TD it is still broad and has multiple vortices
that's not surprising either, she has had that her whole life.
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3617. FLdewey
South Florida might just break off at the barge canal...

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
3616. P451
Hey Jeff, did you realize that CybrTeddy has a SUPER chart?


Quoting nofailsafe:


Wow, what's that thing that shoots off to the northeast from 27N to 30N? That's fast.


The remnants of Karen.

But seriously, that is one awesome feature. Thunderstorms collapsed earlier this morning and sent that flying off to the north east.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
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3614. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:


Anyone correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first time I see a sub 1000mb tropical cyclone being shown on the GFS that isn't going out to sea.


Quite possibly yes. I don't think it ever showed Emily sub-1000mb on the NCEP images, though it may have on the one you posted, which shows a higher resolution of pressures.
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Quoting GetReal:
why am I not surprise, she just likes to go west, her new nickname should be westward Emily.
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Can y'all please quit publicly congratulating yourselves on how many people whose comments you are ignoring? We are here because we want to learn and post regarding Dr. Master's blog topics.
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3607. DSIjeff
Does it endanger the heavily deforested mountainous terrain of Hispaniola? Let us think and pray not. They need a break down there.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
I keep losing the recon plane in this mess. I wonder if that dropsonde in the GOM has a sunburn yet.
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but it is lol better safe than sorry.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
Quoting troy1993:
To anyone that is sick of this ridiculous trolling please go to CyberTeddy or Levi32's blog if you want to discuss Emily and the upcoming dangerous pattern that may take up for the Cape Verde season. Thank you.


There is an excellent discussion on Ems unique qualities on Dewey's blog.
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3600. JLPR2


Anyone correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first time I see a sub 1000mb tropical cyclone being shown on the GFS that isn't going out to sea.
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imo emily shouldn't even be a TD it is still broad and has multiple vortices
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3598. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


The one that is off the coast of Africa right now.

So it still takes it towards PR.GFS doesnt like Puerto Rico this year;)
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just fixed to add #38 wow piling up fast.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
Quoting GetReal:


Wow, what's that thing that shoots off to the northeast from 27N to 30N? That's fast.
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3594. Patrap
They have other blogs here?

ACK!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
3593. spathy
Are we sure this storms name isnt Sybil?
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3592. DSIjeff
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Stop quoting IKE, I have him on my ignore list.

TIA!!!!


Please don't post, you are on my ignore list.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
3591. Patrap
Admin is not real time here.

Save for impending Landfalls or other High Volume entries.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
To anyone that is sick of this ridiculous trolling please go to CyberTeddy or Levi32's blog if you want to discuss Emily and the upcoming dangerous pattern that may take up for the Cape Verde season. Thank you.
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Quoting GetReal:



Nothing makes any sense with Emily.... I will differ to the experts at the NHC.... I just can't believe my lying eyes any longer!


Indeed, she's been the storm from hell this season, -__-.
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3587. Gearsts
Who's the admin on this blog? If only i was and admin :D
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3584. GetReal
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Hi GetReal, by the looks of it, it still appears to be moving WNW?



Nothing makes any sense with Emily.... I will differ to the experts at the NHC.... I just can't believe my lying eyes any longer!
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3583. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
What wave is that?


The one that is off the coast of Africa right now.

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Quoting P451:
Everyone got all that?









Ok, good.



Crystal clear to me O_o
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3581. scott39
Quoting IKE:
#116 on my ignore list. My gosh.
Thats more like a book... than a list.
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post 3568 just showed who this is.Bingo.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1044
3575. Patrap
Its a Balmy 74F in the Living room here..

92F outside Uptown,NOLA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
3574. beell
That arc cloud leaving the Bahamas to the NE making about 40 knots.

RGB Floater
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3573. P451
Everyone got all that?









Ok, good.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
3570. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, yikes! for me. At least it sees a weak system and 189hrs isn't exactly short range.

What wave is that?
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3569. FLdewey
Quoting IKE:
#116 on my ignore list. My gosh.


Not such an exclusive club any more.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269

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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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