Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
I cannot wait to see the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s begin to form and race off towards us. Exciting times to come.


You have obviously never lived through a Hurricane. They are not exciting; they invoke terror. They are the epitome of suck. Get your neighborhood hit by a few majors, then come talk to me about how "exciting" they are. Yeah, they excite your bowels to release.

EDIT: Sorry, that was a bit harsh. I am just tired of people thinking devastating storms are fun.
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3768. wxhatt
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
I cannot wait to see the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s begin to form and race off towards us. Exciting times to come.


You know the old saying. "Be Careful What You Wish for..."
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3765. IKE

Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
I'm bored, how much longer before the majors begin to form? Sigh, =(.
Major Tom?.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEG7OzvSMBA
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Quoting redwagon:

Yeah... but now it's a little beyond despair. The water we pull from the lake (no water/wastewater here) is getting awful as the lake is so low.

Patience... patience... it's been a year since TS Hermine, the last time we had any useful rain. We can
wait another two weeks....


Your misery is justified.
I hope that at least makes you feel better.
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3762. wxhatt
Quoting AegirsGal:


What is left of Emily appears to be slowly moving west, again. At least that is what I am seeing on the nexrad radar.


Emily has basically been decapitated (decoupled). As Levi alluded to, sheared from the northeast side. What you see is the MLC moving away from the LLC.
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3761. IKE
6-10 day temp.......


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Quoting ackee:
WHAT DIRECTION IS Emily moving now ?

A N
B NW
C WEST
D WNW


She recently studied particle physics and decided to take the simultaneous left/right/both/neither course. Hence all the vortexes.
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3758. ackee
Quoting Chicklit:
Don't look at Emily.
She'll drive you nuts.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
May I suggest an alternative?

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 22N16W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 17W-24W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ALOFT.

I think this wave could be the first CV major sorm of the seasons weather it will affect land is anyone guess
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Quoting Chicklit:


better to hope for something than to stay in despair.

Yeah... but now it's a little beyond despair. The water we pull from the lake (no water/wastewater here) is getting awful as the lake is so low.

Patience... patience... it's been a year since TS Hermine, the last time we had any useful rain. We can
wait another two weeks....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3755. ackee
WHAT DIRECTION IS Emily moving now ?

A N
B NW
C WEST
D WNW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't look at Emily.
She'll drive you nuts.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
May I suggest an alternative?

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 22N16W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 17W-24W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ALOFT.

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3753. Mediate
Quoting P451:
Seems unhealthy now.



Looks like the llc tried to relocate right off south beach then bumped its head on florida. typical emily very unsure about where she wants to be
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Quoting Chicklit:


better to hope for something than to stay in despair.


I disagree. Hope sustains only so long, and if hope comes up empty handed...

Prepare for the worst- always the best course of action.
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3751. IKE

Quoting DFWjc:


Heck yeah, loving it... great, here goes my afternoon...
i thought I'd lay myself down to rest...in a big tall field of Mexican grass.

................................................. .................................................. ...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
REGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Quoting Chicklit:

She is looking better to me.
What do you say CI?
Definitely. I do not look forward to the rest of this hurricane season. Tired already from watching Don and Emily passing through the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8317
Quoting Hurricanes101:
sorry NHC but this storm is not moving north very much


What is left of Emily appears to be slowly moving west, again. At least that is what I am seeing on the nexrad radar.
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3748. DFWjc
Quoting redwagon:

We watched Don make that same journey.. molasses slow but he made it. Our local LCRA met was hinting around
yesterday about something two weeks out.

So there's hope.


Yeah, Don found out how dry it was in the State of Texas, it soaked him up instead of the other way around!
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Quoting redwagon:

We watched Don make that same journey.. molasses slow but he made it. Our local LCRA met was hinting around
yesterday about something two weeks out.

So there's hope.


better to hope for something than to stay in despair.
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3746. DFWjc
Quoting IKE:

Here...try this one on....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3i0DMbCKnAg&fe ature=fvwrel

................................................. .................................................. .......

Emily......




Heck yeah, loving it... great, here goes my afternoon...
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sorry NHC but this storm is not moving north very much
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Anyone feel this year we will have a major hurricane hit on the US coast? The last one I beleive was in 2008 with Ike.
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3743. jeebsa
On the current visable loop it looks like a bomb went off on the North East side. Any thoughts to what that was?
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3742. wxhatt
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and good riddance been a pain in the ass from start till finish


and so did the D.R. think so...

Tropical Storm Emily Dies!
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Quoting Chicklit:

Saw that later CI.
Any model 2 weeks out is highly dubious, but it's a glimmer of hope for drought-stricken Texas.

We watched Don make that same journey.. molasses slow but he made it. Our local LCRA met was hinting around
yesterday about something two weeks out.

So there's hope.
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i think there is a big brush fire around the north side of cape canaveral near playalinda bch. its showing up on the melbourne fl. radar nws there are a bunch red clouds earlier that looked like smoke
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3739. IKE

Quoting DFWjc:


Thank you for that, love that song!!
Here...try this one on....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3i0DMbCKnAg&fe ature=fvwrel

................................................. .................................................. .......

Emily......


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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm glad you're safe. For future reference hold a 1 iron in your hand while you're rushing to shelter. They say even god can't hit a 1 iron.


Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
3737. Levi32
Wind shear from the northeast and dry air due to subsidence from the ridge over the Carolinas should keep Emily weak. We're seeing the effects now.
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Quoting Patrap:
Seems some have forgotten "Tora Bora" and the losses we suffered there year's ago.

Pat, I was in a live and let live mood until I learned of this. Now I say B-52s.
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3735. DFWjc
Quoting BobinTampa:


it was the kind where you are really glad that you were on the 9th hole and close to the clubhouse. blew up really fast. Cart barn got hit. parking lot got hit. I bet the course's property was hit at least 10 times. A lot of folks were stuck in the on course shelters. That had to suck. It was relentless.


When i was younger, in houston, one hit right outside our condo and it strobed right the downstairs area. It blew our 19" zenith tube tv and i put my two feet through the bottom of our couch...scared the crap out of me....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and good riddance been a pain in the ass from start till finish
Amen
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3731. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wxhatt:
Good Bye Emily

and good riddance been a pain in the ass from start till finish
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3730. DVG
I was watching the game and have tried to catch up, so excuse me if this has been discussed.

I noticed what looks like a shock wave eminating to the NE on both the RGB and visible. It seems something similar happenned before. Something to do with the collapse of circulation maybe.

Anyway, I was wondering that maybe there were multiple circulations and one has just died leaving another to the sw part of this mess.

Does this change anything. ( And did someone infer levi is now thinking gom? I tried to find him saying that and haven't. )
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thanks for the last vis. looks as if there is a tight little circulation just east of here the clouds are twirly looks and seem really white. it a very pleasent here right now alittle hot earlier cant beat the weather in e cen fl. this summer
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3727. DFWjc
Quoting IKE:

LOL. No....I'm only 53 and gotta make what I can make today. Thanks for caring though:)

Emily puttin on the ritz.....?????????

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69NJgRS-mx4


Thank you for that, love that song!!
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Quoting DFWjc:


Was it the kind where the sound of the boom wasn't a boom, but like when you unplug your old tube TV right out the socket?


it was the kind where you are really glad that you were on the 9th hole and close to the clubhouse. blew up really fast. Cart barn got hit. parking lot got hit. I bet the course's property was hit at least 10 times. A lot of folks were stuck in the on course shelters. That had to suck. It was relentless.
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3725. Patrap

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

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Quoting BobinTampa:
Played golf today at World Woods in Brooksville. Worst lightning storm I've ever been in. Barely made it back to the clubhouse before the bad stuff started. Lightning was everywhere and very very close.

I'm glad you're safe. For future reference hold a 1 iron in your hand while you're rushing to shelter. They say even god can't hit a 1 iron.
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3723. wxhatt
Good Bye Emily

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3722. IKE

Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Ike, thoughts on our credit downgrade? Will it affect your retirement? I hope not, =(.
LOL. No....I'm only 53 and gotta make what I can make today. Thanks for caring though:)

Emily puttin on the ritz.....?????????

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69NJgRS-mx4
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3721. Patrap
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know. I said another 24 hours.

She is looking better to me.
What do you say CI?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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