Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Don't worry Janiel, you'll get your wish soon enough. The US can only hold out for so long, after all. The only caveat, however, is that I hope the core passes directly over your house. Not the core of a Category, 2 or 3, but the core of a Category 4 or 5. Then maybe you'll learn to shut up for once.


Amen brother.

Quoting KoritheMan:


The lack of electricity following a hurricane definitely sucks. Definitely.


After Frances and Jeanne, the house smelled like the wetlands. It's horrendous. Although after Wilma, a little warmth would've been nice.
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Quoting ackee:
I am not sure but it seem like bermuda high is geting weaker as we end into the peak of the seasons anythought


Climatologically, it is strongest in July. But yeah, there is some anomalous troughing going on in the western and central Atlantic at the moment, but models suggest this weakness should gradually fill, with weaker troughs coming in after that. This will NOT be a repeat of last year. I bet $50.
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3816. Patrap

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3814. DFWjc
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
i just wanna see another landfall down here, Kori, that would be all. Please, is that asking for too much, is it? yet, every time that I bring it up, you all gang up on me and begin to degrade me, =(. Snif, snif, =(.


It's probably because someone has lost someone to one of these storm... (My best friend lost everything, parents and a sister in a tornado.) That's why I'm here, learning, so i can come up with ideas with others that may help change the way we look at weather...
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Good afternoon everyone.I see Emily tried to come alive again.She is a fighter i tell ya.Anyways can someone tell me what the pattern is gonna be looking like the next couple of weeks.I hope I am saying that right.Its in regards to troughs and steering currents.Sorry if I am saying it wrong.TIA
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
i just wanna see another landfall down here, Kori, that would be all. Please, is that asking for too much, is it? yet, every time that I bring it up, you all gang up on me and begin to degrade me, =(. Snif, snif, =(.


I apologize, but there are less widely destructive adrenaline rushes. Have you tried swimming with great whites without a cage? I hear that'll get the ticker pumping.
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3811. wxhatt
Quoting DFWjc:


But realistically, a hurricane or a typhoon on a barren island? How about just a house on a pier and beams anywhere....


Exactly. I was just about to address that part too. I have experience quite a few hurricanes. I was the one that ripped off my roof and spew glass and debris 135 mph at me and my family that really gave me the respect of a major hurricane. Thank God I survived that.

and that isn't considered to top of the scale.
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
i just wanna see another landfall down here, Kori, that would be all. Please, is that asking for too much, is it? yet, every time that I bring it up, you all gang up on me and begin to degrade me, =(. Snif, snif, =(.


Grow. Up.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Guys the latest update has this moving North. When do you expect Northwest turn?


Looks like it should occur soon (over the next 12 or so hours) to me, based on analysis of water vapor imagery.
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3808. ackee
I am not sure but it seem like bermuda high is geting weaker as we end into the peak of the seasons anythought
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3804. Patrap
Seems we should lower the Curtain ThreatCON: Color to "Mauve" at 8CDT.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting KoritheMan:
Don't worry Janiel, you'll get your wish soon enough. The US can only hold out for so long, after all. The only caveat, however, is that I hope the core passes directly over your house. Not the core of a Category, 2 or 3, but the core of a Category 4 or 5. Then maybe you'll learn to shut up for once.
Amen. +1000.........
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3802. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
I cannot wait to see the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s begin to form and race off towards us. Exciting times to come.
Bob, don't wish too hard or you might get what you wish for.
Do you remember the fairy tale about the princess who wished too hard for rain?

She turned into A SHOWER CURTAIN!
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3800. DFWjc
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:



HOW DARE YOU? Listen to me, you Pokemon MONGOLICO, I'll be anxiously awaiting that gran day down here with exhilarating excitement and with my hands in a welcoming position awaiting the landfall of beautiful yet destructive force of nature. Also, if you are in the mood to disclose names on here, too can play that way.


Easy...let's all just take it down a notch here...
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Guys the latest update has this moving North. When do you expect Northwest turn?
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Quoting flwthrfan:


Unfortunately, it wouldn't just be "his" house...He's just trying to get everyone to quote him and play his game...gotta ignore the ignorant and move on


lol I know.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


Then please take into account that there are other people who are not sado-masochists. In fact, your tweaked little group is quite small. The majority of people do not enjoy their homes and neighborhoods wrecked.


Even Janiel couldn't stoop so low. I don't think he's saying he enjoys seeing property damage or fatalities. At least I hope not.
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3795. DFWjc
Quoting wxhatt:


Nothing against you personally, but I DO understand where you are coming from. I'm the kind of guy that would go sky diving in a heartbeat, but I'm not going to drag everyone along with me.

Maybe if you were on a deserted island somewhere and experienced a true major hurricane you might change your mind.


But realistically, a hurricane or a typhoon on a barren island? How about just a house on a pier and beams anywhere....
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3794. wxhatt
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


WRONG, of course I have, I lived through Wilma back in 05 and I enjoyed every minute of her, it was a real adrenaline rush for me, are you kidding me? That's why I want another major to hit SF, we're overdue down here for one already, anyhow. Do not assume what you do not know, PLEASE.


Nothing against you personally, but I DO understand where you are coming from. I'm the kind of guy that would go sky diving in a heartbeat, but I'm not going to drag everyone along with me.

Maybe if you were on a deserted island somewhere and experienced a true major hurricane you might change your mind.
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3793. DFWjc
Quoting KoritheMan:


The lack of electricity following a hurricane definitely sucks. Definitely.


Especially in HOUSTON.... NO AIR...enough said..
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Don't worry Janiel, you'll get your wish soon enough. The US can only hold out for so long, after all. The only caveat, however, is that I hope the core passes directly over your house. Not the core of a Category, 2 or 3, but the core of a Category 4 or 5. Then maybe you'll learn to shut up for once.


Unfortunately, it wouldn't just be "his" house...He's just trying to get everyone to quote him and play his game...gotta ignore the ignorant and move on
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Comment gone. I apologize for that.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Actually to me, when i went thru Alica in '83 I thought is was boring and a hassle. It flooded our downstairs condo and we were without electricity for 4 days....


The lack of electricity following a hurricane definitely sucks. Definitely.
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3789. MahFL
Convection is firing now she is moving away from the island.
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3788. IKE

Quoting hunkerdown:
more appropriate...

Link
Bowie at his best...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pSw6Dz3-8E

................................................. ..................................

GMZ089-070330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011

.SYNOPSIS...1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N86W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ALONG 26N/27N DOMINATES ENTIRE BASIN TONIGHT AND MON. RIDGE
SLIPS S TO ALONG 25N MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE E GULF STATES LATE TUE AND WED. RIDGE MOVES N
TO 26N THU.
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3787. jeebsa
Palm City, Fl. just a few min. ago. Red Sky At Night Sailers Delight.
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3786. Patrap
3769. CatfishJones

Im gonna say go with catfish on his timely post fo sho.

Cuz least once in me life I said to myself,,"well,,this prolly wasnt yer best decision Patrick",,

...twas round 8am CDT Aug 29,2005 on Bonnabel Blvd in Metairie.




..watch what ya wish for,for The days after a Major,,a major that Kills Thousands and displaces Hundreds of Thousands...can be mighty hard on a single Humans memory and a Collective regions as well.

In multiple States.

Year's later.


Watch what ya ask for with a young foolish heart.


God may deliver it to your welcome mat.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
There is a great deal of smugness on this board about storms that don't pan out as legitimate landfalling threats. It is easy to poke fun at a Bonnie, a Don or an Emily...but you'all are whistling past the graveyard. When there is another significant system sitting off of someone's coastline, poised to strike with more than toupee removing winds, I trust there will be more respect around here for potentially catastrophic damage.

This US has been beyond lucky since 2008. I really don't expect that luck to hold this year.

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Don't worry Janiel, you'll get your wish soon enough. The US can only hold out for so long, after all. The only caveat, however, is that I hope the core passes directly over your house. Not the core of a Category, 2 or 3, but the core of a Category 4 or 5. Then maybe you'll learn to shut up for once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3783. DFWjc
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


WRONG, of course I have, I lived through Wilma back in 05 and I enjoyed every minute of her, it was a real adrenaline rush for me, are you kidding me? That's why I want another major to hit SF, we're overdue down here for one already, anyhow. Do not assume what you do not know, PLEASE.


Actually to me, when i went thru Alica in '83 I thought it was boring and a hassle. It flooded our downstairs condo and we were without electricity for 4 days....
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3781. rod2635
Quoting ackee:
WHAT DIRECTION IS Emily moving now ?

A N
B NW
C WEST
D WNW


E. BEST
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Awww, come on guys. Weather is all about Mussorgsky's Night On Bare Mountain or dare I mention the behemoth of Tchaikovsky's Tempest? (Though not a behemoth by Tchaikovsky standards)
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3778. IKE

Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Cool video, thanks, =). I needed some good music tonight.
Try this one....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt_ro2aerQg
................................................. .................................................. ........

6-10 day temps.....


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3777. wxhatt
Quoting wxhatt:



100

I have personally experienced a major, and it took my fascination for the power of a hurricane, and turned it into pure fear and terror!! NO FUN...

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3776. wxhatt
Quoting NavarreMark:


She needs to have a cigarette and call a cab. No sense hangin around after you've been abused.


LOL, worse than a bad 'B' movie...
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Quoting Patrap:


They did say north, right? 'Cause that doesn't look very north to me...
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3774. DFWjc
Quoting hunkerdown:
more appropriate...

Link


Okay when I'm having a block day on music, i know where to come to get some help, Thanks guys!
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3773. wxhatt
Quoting CatfishJones:


You have obviously never lived through a Hurricane. They are not exciting; they invoke terror. They are the epitome of suck. Get your neighborhood hit by a few majors, then come talk to me about how "exciting" they are. Yeah, they excite your bowels to release.


100

I have personally experienced a major, and it took my fascination for the power of a hurricane, and turned into pure fear and terror!! NO FUN...
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3771. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting IKE:

Major Tom?.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEG7OzvSMBA
more appropriate...

Link
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
I cannot wait to see the cat 3s, 4s, and 5s begin to form and race off towards us. Exciting times to come.


You have obviously never lived through a Hurricane. They are not exciting; they invoke terror. They are the epitome of suck. Get your neighborhood hit by a few majors, then come talk to me about how "exciting" they are. Yeah, they excite your bowels to release.

EDIT: Sorry, that was a bit harsh. I am just tired of people thinking devastating storms are fun.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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