Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:

Don't QUITE remember Wilma like this.


Oh that's too funny.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
3868. wxhatt
Quoting CatfishJones:


I was on Wrightsville Beach that year. Until the National Guard enforced the mandatory evacuation. Three weeks til they let us back on. The beach moved about 100 yards inland.


Yeah, our nose sticks itself right out there to get smacked!
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3867. Patrap

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


I know that I'll be safe inside of your home with your beautiful family, ^_^.
There are no guarantees on being safe anywhere from a major hurricane. I am a very strong, tough woman and I cried like a baby when I saw the destruction from Ivan. Scared to death when I could not get in contact with any of my children to know if they were safe. Living without electricity for 77 days in the heat and mosquitoes. Armed guards up and down the streets 24 hours a day. I could go on and on and I still could not make you understand the devastation. Bob Marley said it best. There are none so blind as he who will not see.
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Quoting number4steel:
i used to think hurricanes were nothing. the storm that hit here before fran( bertha ?) was nothing much.however fran was something else. i lived in a house with a tin roof, fran drove pecans through the tin roof. also 8 days with no power. a few years later, floyd....13 days without power. wish for a storm if you want ... i hope you live a long ways away from nc (like saturn)


I was on Wrightsville Beach that year. Until the National Guard enforced the mandatory evacuation. Three weeks til they let us back on. The beach moved about 100 yards inland. I was there for Bonnie too, which wasn't as bad as '96. But still, we said screw this in '99 and moved to St.Petersburg, Florida.
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3864. IKE

Quoting FrankZapper:
Good one!
Whole album is.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOp0nnsDY7Q&fe ature=related

................................................. .................................................. .......


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3863. wxhatt
Quoting number4steel:
i used to think hurricanes were nothing. the storm that hit here before fran( bertha ?) was nothing much.however fran was something else. i lived in a house with a tin roof, fran drove pecans through the tin roof. also 8 days with no power. a few years later, floyd....13 days without power. wish for a storm if you want ... i hope you live a long ways away from nc (like saturn)


true dat...
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


I know that I'll be safe inside of your home with your beautiful family, ^_^.
Heavy weather headed your way!
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i used to think hurricanes were nothing. the storm that hit here before fran( bertha ?) was nothing much.however fran was something else. i lived in a house with a tin roof, fran drove pecans through the tin roof. also 8 days with no power. a few years later, floyd....13 days without power. wish for a storm if you want ... i hope you live a long ways away from nc (like saturn)
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3859. DFWjc
Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
Don't QUITE remember Wilma like this.


It went from France to Africa?
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3858. DFWjc
Quoting Bluestorm5:
haha, I REALLLLY miss Imo's Pizza and Lion's Choice roast beef sandwish! St. Louis style pizza is da best in the world :)


I'm a Texan, but I'd pick NY over St Louie then followed Chicago style last....
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Don't QUITE remember Wilma like this.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
3856. jeebsa
Quoting Methurricanes:

Thats only for the MId Latitudes, cause when the sun sets it makes clouds look pink after refaction through the atmoshpere, which would be to the eastern sky, because in the Mid- laditudes storms move from east to west it means the storm has passed, however in the tropics and subtropics its reversed cause storms travel west to east.
Great explanation. Thanks
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3855. wxhatt
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I promise you it won't be a nice vacation.


ROFLMAO
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3853. Patrap
Marsh Harbour 81.8 °F 95% 29.95 in SW at 22.0 mph 8:57 PM EDT Save
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting DFWjc:


Damn, i was going to ask you to send me Gooey Butter Cake, IMO's Pizza and Vanilla Long Johns down to me and I'd make it worth your while...
haha, I REALLLLY miss Imo's Pizza and Lion's Choice roast beef sandwish! St. Louis style pizza is da best in the world :)
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3851. jeebsa
Quoting Methurricanes:

Thats only for the MId Latitudes, cause when the sun sets it makes clouds look pink after refaction through the atmoshpere, which would be to the eastern sky, because in the Mid- laditudes storms move from east to west it means the storm has passed, however in the tropics and subtropics its reversed cause storms travel west to east.
That shot was taken torwards the west.
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3850. Patrap
..da-dum, da-dum...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting jeebsa:
Palm City, Fl. just a few min. ago. Red Sky At Night Sailers Delight.
it was not that nice here about a hr north thanks
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4256
3848. DFWjc
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Used to. I moved from St. Louis to Raleigh in 2009 and living there for second time in life (moved from Raleigh to St. Louis in 2001). That's why I haven't been in a hurricane that I can remembered of (I survived Hurricane Floyd, but have NO memory of it so I don't know what hurricanes are like).


Damn, i was going to ask you to send me Gooey Butter Cake, IMO's Pizza and Vanilla Long Johns down to me and I'd make it worth your while...
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Quoting caneswatch:
I think this song suits the blog well tonight, at least for one person.


I'm more Liszt No.8 Wilde Jagd or Berlioz Symphonie Fantastique- Un Bal tonight... Actually, no. Liszt No.2 Molto Vivace...
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Quoting IKE:

Zappa.....produced this GFR song....think he played guitar on it too.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cPJxtWDGZI

................................................. .................................................. ......

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM REGENERATED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EMILY PRESENTLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS SW INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 21N83W. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT N
OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS EMILY MOVES NNE. A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL N ATLC IS
MOVING W AT 13 KT. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND
WED. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOME TO THE S
THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
WEAKEN.
Good one!
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Deal, ma'am, I'll take you up on that. Thanks, BTW.
I promise you it won't be a nice vacation.
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3844. DFWjc
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


For RobertFromBrickell AKA JFV


ROFLMFAO!!
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3843. DFWjc
Quoting j2008:

Scary it shows Frankin hitting PR and Hispanola, then in 12 days Gert slamming into Texas as a Cat 1 or 2. Strange forcast, I wouldnt put any money on it but it sure is something to watch this week into next.


I guess they predict that TX HIGH is going to be gone by then, and if so HALLELUIAH !!!
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Link


For RobertFromBrickell AKA JFV
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Quoting DFWjc:


Are you from St Louis?
Used to. I moved from St. Louis to Raleigh in 2009 and living there for second time in life (moved from Raleigh to St. Louis in 2001). That's why I haven't been in a hurricane that I can remembered of (I survived Hurricane Floyd, but have NO memory of it so I don't know what hurricanes are like).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3839. j2008
Quoting ackee:
thanks IF the GFS forecast is right about the two tropical wave depending on where it tracks will conclude wethere it will be a repeat of last year

Scary it shows Frankin hitting PR and Hispanola, then in 12 days Gert slamming into Texas as a Cat 1 or 2. Strange forcast, I wouldnt put any money on it but it sure is something to watch this week into next.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't really think he cares if you disclose his name since it is in his handle but even though you and I have no problems you may THINK you have been through a major which you have NOT since Wilma did not make a direct landfall on S. Florida. Please take my offer up and come spend the time with me when we are threatened with another major hurricane like Ivan or Paloma. That should open your eyes to true terror and fear.


How about Floyd when he was knocking on South Florida's door just a mph away from being a Cat. 5? That's the first time I ever went through true terror and fear.
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Quoting jeebsa:
Palm City, Fl. just a few min. ago. Red Sky At Night Sailers Delight.

Thats only for the MId Latitudes, cause when the sun sets it makes clouds look pink after refaction through the atmoshpere, which would be to the eastern sky, because in the Mid- laditudes storms move from east to west it means the storm has passed, however in the tropics and subtropics its reversed cause storms travel west to east.
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3836. ackee
EMILY has been one of the hardest storm to track the NHC say N but with each frame keep seeing west need get some glass to track this one
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3835. wxhatt
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't really think he cares if you disclose his name since it is in his handle but even though you and I have no problems you may THINK you have been through a major which you have NOT since Wilma did not make a direct landfall on S. Florida. Please take my offer up and come spend the time with me when we are threatened with another major hurricane like Ivan or Paloma. That should open your eyes to true terror and fear.


Yes, those whom choose to wish for something they really haven't experienced are truely in the dark on this subject matter. I pray he never does...
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3834. jeebsa
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Directly east of me. Hopefully she can lay down an inflow line before departing.
Im with you we need something here.Sure could use a solid rain band.
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3833. DFWjc
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, my beloved St. Louis Cardinals are playing Florida Marlins right now just 30 miles from TD Emily. Strange right?


Are you from St Louis?
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3832. DFWjc
Quoting caneswatch:
I think this song suits the blog well tonight, at least for one person.


I was thinking this one... LOL

Link
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3831. IKE

Quoting FrankZapper:
Frank Booth: Hey you wanna go for a ride?
Jeffrey Beaumont: No thanks.
Frank Booth: No thanks? What does that mean?
Jeffrey Beaumont: I don't wanna go.
Frank Booth: Go where?
Jeffrey Beaumont: For a ride.
Frank Booth: A ride! Now that's a good idea!
Zappa.....produced this GFR song....think he played guitar on it too.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cPJxtWDGZI

................................................. .................................................. ......

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM REGENERATED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EMILY PRESENTLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS SW INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 21N83W. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT N
OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS EMILY MOVES NNE. A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL N ATLC IS
MOVING W AT 13 KT. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND
WED. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOME TO THE S
THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
WEAKEN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3830. ackee
Quoting KoritheMan:


Climatologically, it is strongest in July. But yeah, there is some anomalous troughing going on in the western and central Atlantic at the moment, but models suggest this weakness should gradually fill, with weaker troughs coming in after that. This will NOT be a repeat of last year. I bet $50.
thanks IF the GFS forecast is right about the two tropical wave depending on where it tracks will conclude wethere it will be a repeat of last year
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Hurricanes are a part of nature, if you want to live on the coast you have to deal with them. It's a whole lot better than dealing with tornados and earthquakes. Besides they help to clean up the enviorment.
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Well, my beloved St. Louis Cardinals are playing Florida Marlins right now just 30 miles from TD Emily. Strange right?
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I think this song suits the blog well tonight, at least for one person.
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:



HOW DARE YOU? Listen to me, you Pokemon MONGOLICO, I'll be anxiously awaiting that gran day down here with exhilarating excitement and with my hands in a welcoming position awaiting the landfall of that beautiful, yet destructive force of nature. Also, if you are in the mood to disclose names on here, too can play it that way, ya hear? -_______-.
I don't really think he cares if you disclose his name since it is in his handle but even though you and I have no problems you may THINK you have been through a major which you have NOT since Wilma did not make a direct landfall on S. Florida. Please take my offer up and come spend the time with me when we are threatened with another major hurricane like Ivan or Paloma. That should open your eyes to true terror and fear.
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3825. jeebsa
Quoting islander101010:
uneasily still right now pink sky e cen fl
See post #3787 ECFL. Sky about a half hour ago.
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Quoting Patrap:



Directly east of me. Hopefully she can lay down an inflow line before departing.
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Remains as a TD.

AL, 05, 2011080700, , BEST, 0, 271N, 782W, 30, 1011, TD

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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
i just wanna see another landfall down here, Kori, that would be all. Please, is that asking for too much, is it? yet, every time that I bring it up, you all gang up on me and begin to degrade me, =(. Snif, snif, =(.
Frank Booth: Hey you wanna go for a ride?
Jeffrey Beaumont: No thanks.
Frank Booth: No thanks? What does that mean?
Jeffrey Beaumont: I don't wanna go.
Frank Booth: Go where?
Jeffrey Beaumont: For a ride.
Frank Booth: A ride! Now that's a good idea!
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uneasily still right now pink sky e cen fl looks like the system is stuck on the northern most bahamian island been there right next to walker cay
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4256
3820. jeebsa
Quoting DFWjc:


It's probably because someone has lost someone to one of these storm... (My best friend lost everything, parents and a sister in a tornado.) That's why I'm here, learning, so i can come up with ideas with others that may help change the way we look at weather...
I Could'nt of said it better. Best reply all day.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.