Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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3919. DFWjc
Quoting CatfishJones:


And that is why Hurricanes suck.


no that would be "blow"... tornadoes "suck"...just sayin'
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Hurricane Andrew 1992 Homestead, FL


so soooo sad :(
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Hurricane Andrew 1992 Homestead, FL


And that is why Hurricanes suck.
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Quoting DFWjc:


The problem is RFB, no one and I mean no one wants a storm to hit where human life could be injured or killed....I love the beauty and science of any storm, but not at the loss of any life no matter what race, creed, colour or nationality..


Beautifully said DFW
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Quoting IKE:

Guess she had pork and beans for lunch?


LMAO Ike!!!
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"My ideal hope is for another Andrew type of a scenario"

Please stop tempting God! Do you honestly want another Homestead?
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Robert, you remind me of a quote I learned in elementary school...

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt"- Abraham Lincoln
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3910. IKE

Quoting NavarreMark:


Along with deviled eggs and raisons.
Jeez...lysol and fan time.

................................................. .................................................. ....


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Hurricane Andrew 1992 Homestead, FL
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3907. K8eCane
Quoting FLdewey:
Last visible of the day...



Yall just cant stand it til I have to buy a new keyboard and monitor can ya?? LOLOLOL
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:
Oh well, at least I'm not one to hide my meteorological true colors.


You are probably a troll. However, just in case you are not, let me offer some friendly advice.

Most on this board are conflicted. While they will come here for hours on end and discuss the most minute aspects of a storm's development, path, potential for growth and landfall locations, they will also wring their hands over what these storms may do in a real life, landfalling situation. So, essentially, they are completely fixated on these storms to the point of obsession, but they don't want them to cause damage. It is really an odd situation when everyone is pushing for a storm to make it to Cat-5 around here, but stay out to sea as harmless as can be. Trust me on this one.

Then, you have some that actually do want these storms to strike populated areas. Those people will be shunned and chastised and will be demeaned by the general population here. This is a no-no on Wunderground. Probably the biggest no-no.

So, while you may want to experience a storm simply for the sake of experiencing it, or maybe you have a career that is linked to these storms in some way, or perhaps you just like to see nature's wrath at a zenith, it is best to keep that to yourself if you want to participate in this forum without discomfort.

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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


I did not say this to offend anyone and was not implying that all the countries in the path of a storm coming to Miami where poor. I was trying to make a point that some of the countries are poor that are in the path to get to Miami. Ivan was a terrible storm and affected the Cayman Islands for months after. There is no good Hurricane when you are in the eye.
No, I did not take offense. I know even a normal rainy period causes devastation in Haiti. My point was that rich or poor countries and their people suffer from hurricanes. I grew up in Miami and went through many hurricanes(not majors that I can remember)but I would not wish for one to come where I live or on anyone else. Yes, they are awesome to watch but the aftermath is not nice. I came to Miami a year after Andrew to visit my parents and it still looked like a war zone. I am sure if he was living in Miami in 1992 he would not be wishing for another hurricane to come.
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3903. emcf30
Quoting FLdewey:
Last visible of the day...


LMAO
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.
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Quoting DFWjc:


don't you mean GALE bladder? LOL

that's a good one!
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3898. IKE
Rough around the edges tonight....


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3897. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

Quoting FLdewey:
Last visible of the day...

yeah like that not to be expected
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


OH WOW, =(.
May The Lord have mercy on your soul!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
that wave by Africa is extremely impressive

Had it been further out in the ocean and looked like that, it very well could be classified.

NHC will wait a bit to see if convection and structure can hold, but I would not be shocked to see 92L at any time
The next one poised to come off is also impressive.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The Cayman Islands is not a poor country but after Ivan the suffering was terrible. As you say, we cannot drive anywhere for relief. My grand-daughter who was 9 at the time told me she never thought she would see the day I would stand in line for free handouts of water and other necessities. Thousands of people lining up at the airport day after day to try to get off the island just to have to come back the next day and try again.


I did not say this to offend anyone and was not implying that all the countries in the path of a storm coming to Miami where poor. I was trying to make a point that some of the countries are poor that are in the path to get to Miami. Ivan was a terrible storm and affected the Cayman Islands for months after. There is no good Hurricane when you are in the eye.
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3893. DFWjc
Quoting CatfishJones:


No, just a bad Gall Bladder.


don't you mean GALE bladder? LOL
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Quoting IKE:

Guess she had pork and beans for lunch?


No, just a bad Gall Bladder.
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3891. IKE

Quoting DFWjc:


what the heck is coming out the backside of this storm? is she farting x 2?
Guess she had pork and beans for lunch?
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3890. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting keithneese:



Ok... that's just a little bit creepy


i know

aye
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that wave by Africa is extremely impressive

Had it been further out in the ocean and looked like that, it very well could be classified.

NHC will wait a bit to see if convection and structure can hold, but I would not be shocked to see 92L at any time
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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
RobertFromBrickell, may I make a suggestion. The next time a Catagory 1 storm is heading for Haiti, you need to run over there and really experience it first hand. There is no where to run, there is no food, there is no water until relief comes in and then you get to fight over every little bit. Living on Brickell in Miami means that the electricity will be restored in a timely manner, if there is no food available near by, you can drive someone and get some. The water is usually only disrupted for a short period of time. You see the big problem I am having with your statement that you would like to experience a major hurricane is that it has to go through these other poor countries to get to where you are. I and others on here would appreciate it if you would just keep this particular opinion to yourself. Thanks
well said
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models are in agreement that emily is nearly done messing with us.
i woke up at 4 a.m. and stayed up so am calling it a day.

remember to count yer blessings.
things could be worse.
taps n tears for the 31 Seals shot down over Afganistan today.
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Poll time!!!
The T-wave that came off of africa will peak at______.
A.0-50%
B.60-100%
C.Invest
D.TD
E.TS
F.Hurricane

Emily will be_______ at 11:00
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane
D.Other

We will see _____ storms in august.
A.1-3
B.4-6
C.More
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3884. DFWjc
Quoting GetReal:


what the heck is coming out the backside of this storm? is she farting x 2?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
There are no guarantees on being safe anywhere from a major hurricane. I am a very strong, tough woman and I cried like a baby when I saw the destruction from Ivan. Scared to death when I could not get in contact with any of my children to know if they were safe. Living without electricity for 77 days in the heat and mosquitoes. Armed guards up and down the streets 24 hours a day. I could go on and on and I still could not make you understand the devastation. Bob Marley said it best. There are none so blind as he who will not see.
That is why I don't understand the psyche of those who want a major (or minor for that matter) hurricane in a confined body of water or along the East Coast where it will cause misery to thousands. It makes no more sense to me than to revel in the weather pattern causing famine and drought in Somalia, or Texas for that matter.
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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
RobertFromBrickell, may I make a suggestion. The next time a Catagory 1 storm is heading for Haiti, you need to run over there and really experience it first hand. There is no where to run, there is no food, there is no water until relief comes in and then you get to fight over every little bit. Living on Brickell in Miami means that the electricity will be restored in a timely manner, if there is no food available near by, you can drive someone and get some. The water is usually only disrupted for a short period of time. You see the big problem I am having with your statement that you would like to experience a major hurricane is that it has to go through these other poor countries to get to where you are. I and others on here would appreciate it if you would just keep this particular opinion to yourself. Thanks
The Cayman Islands is not a poor country but after Ivan the suffering was terrible. As you say, we cannot drive anywhere for relief. My grand-daughter who was 9 at the time told me she never thought she would see the day I would stand in line for free handouts of water and other necessities. Thousands of people lining up at the airport day after day to try to get off the island just to have to come back the next day and try again.
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3881. GetReal


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FWIW, I made another blog. Hope you all enjoy.
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Quoting wxhatt:


Yeah, our nose sticks itself right out there to get smacked!


Hence the move. Honestly though, I don't know if these central west coast Floridians all day, every day are an improvement. (runs for cover)
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3878. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:


Shields up!
Shower curtains drawn....Moving in Stereo......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZhfFXEMMI4

................................................. .................................................. .....


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Quoting FLdewey:
Last visible of the day...

EEEEEk ! Now that is what you call a major .
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Quoting Patrap:

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



See that green glob next to the coast -- that was hanging over my house -- we went through an hour of thunderstorms, rain & wind. It was quite a show.

Funny thing is it was more weather than when Bonnie came ashore!
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3874. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:
Last visible of the day...

LOL!
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RobertFromBrickell, may I make a suggestion. The next time a Catagory 1 storm is heading for Haiti, you need to run over there and really experience it first hand. There is no where to run, there is no food, there is no water until relief comes in and then you get to fight over every little bit. Living on Brickell in Miami means that the electricity will be restored in a timely manner, if there is no food available near by, you can drive someone and get some. The water is usually only disrupted for a short period of time. You see the big problem I am having with your statement that you would like to experience a major hurricane is that it has to go through these other poor countries to get to where you are. I and others on here would appreciate it if you would just keep this particular opinion to yourself. Thanks
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3872. wxhatt
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
There are no guarantees on being safe anywhere from a major hurricane. I am a very strong, tough woman and I cried like a baby when I saw the destruction from Ivan. Scared to death when I could not get in contact with any of my children to know if they were safe. Living without electricity for 77 days in the heat and mosquitoes. Armed guards up and down the streets 24 hours a day. I could go on and on and I still could not make you understand the devastation. Bob Marley said it best. There are none so blind as he who will not see.


Just like that. It's gone, and you feel helpless. I know the feeling.
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Ok i can understand the allure of wanting to see mother nature at her worst as i did when i was young. By young i mean a kid. 2004 changed all that as the core of cat 4 Charley hit. With a demolished house and no power for a month and the whole neighborhood smelling like a garbage dump I for one would never wish my experience on anyone. Keep wishing for it one day you WILL regret making that wish.
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:

Don't QUITE remember Wilma like this.


Oh that's too funny.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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