Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Link Amazing storm
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There could be some signs that the recurve pattern in place i.e; negative nao will flip positive towards mid month perhaps opening the door for some cv waves to slip through.
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I must be being ignored.
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3966. SQUAWK
Quoting hurricane23:


Took the full 150+ brunt in florida city. Thankfully storms like this dont come to our shores that often.


Hey "killer," good to see you.
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I saw Andrew's destruction first-hand. Used to live in Homestead. As a result, I would never wish that on anyone.

But I gotta say, I sure wish Emily would've come ashore here in West Palm today as a weak TS. We sure could use the rain and the break from the heat.

What created yet more misery for Hispaniola would have been a God-send here.

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3964. angiest
Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like Broward / Palm Beach counties might get a few showers from our re-Emily after all...



Surely you superimposed a picture of Marco over Florida there.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Horrid pics, ma'am.
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3962. FLdewey
I kind of wish he hadn't flunked out of school... maybe he would have a job and a woman.

Okay maybe just the job... talk about wishcasting.

I think I hear my trusses straining against Emily's winds... trash can leaning to the side in a serious manner. Wait, that's just a raccoon.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Ivan. Grand Cayman 2004



Paloma. Cayman Brac 2008


These are people's homes.


I think the sympathy meter would peg higher if you showed what a storm can do to those living in poverty, in comparison to showing huge estates that are probably second or even third homes of the rich down in the Caymans.

I lived on South Beach when Andrew struck. I went down to Cutler Ridge and Homestead, and even could have worked down there had I chosen. It was unreal. Of course, that was one year in the last 23 that I have not resided in New Orleans.

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3960. 10Speed
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
My Aunt has lived in central florida for 30yrs. She experienced Andrew....I never could imagine until we moved here in 2004 and was welcomed with 4 hurricanes in a row. Now I pop on here as an observer from time to time and usually the most during hurricane season. To try and learn from all of you....I agree that it is interesting but I would never wish landfall on anyone


Here's one of those responses you were looking for Spicy. Should I reckon your Aunt left central FL for Homestead to be with someone during Andrew?

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Both are looking pretty healthy. In fact, so is a third:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily were just a practice exercise for what is to come I believe. Got a feeling it's just gonna get worse.
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They changed our forecast today from 20% chance of rain to 40%....we didn't receive anything....blue skies for the most past all day
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Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like Broward / Palm Beach counties might get a few showers from our re-Emily after all...


Ahhhh!!! Run!! ...actually rain would be nice.
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It's a good thing that someone "wishing" for a storm has absolutely no impact whatsoever on where the storm ends up.
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Emily continues to be Emily.

Back from dinner w/friends, logged in to see what's up, and am having a Vince Lombardi moment........."What the hell's going on around here?"
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3953. angiest
Quoting sporteguy03:
Hurricane Andrew 1992 Homestead, FL


I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that Andrew is part of why we have the EF tornado scale now. Without context, that looks like (E)F-3 to (E)F-4 tornado damage. That picture is just wind damage, correct?

Under the classical Fujita scale, F-3 was 158-207mph, and F-4 was 208-260mph/ Under the Enhanced Fujita scale they are 136-165 and 166-200 respectively. Those numbers probably match well with Andrew's sustained winds and gusts at that time.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Exactly my point. If you had lived through Andrew you would definitely not be wishing for another .


Well then, perhaps.
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Hurricane Andrew 1992 Homestead, FL


Took the full 150+ brunt in florida city. Thankfully storms like this dont come to our shores that often.
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3950. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting sporteguy03:
Hurricane Andrew 1992 Homestead, FL


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
I sorry everyone, belay my last. I just figured it out. RobertonBrickell lives in a condo/apartment and didn't have to clean up anything, nor support his family/neighborhood. If worse came to worse, he would just move to another apartment. Unless the building he was in fell down with him in it, he would have no idea what we are all speaking about. I for one will no longer belabor this issue. The majority of the posters here have been through several storms of various categories and have had to help our friends and neighbors put their lives back together, the best they could, so we each have special feelings/emotions when it comes to tropical storms of any kind. Not one of us would wish this on anyone else. It would be best to look past any statements coming from this user in reference to wanting to be in the path of a major hurricane.


For the record, I am not from the Brickell district of Downtown Miami, just saying.
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Am I on everyones "ignore list"? I haven't received a repsonse from anyone this year yet


I Like them too but then again I must be on that same list....

Taco :o)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The next one poised to come off is also impressive.

Both are looking pretty healthy. In fact, so is a third:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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Quoting DFWjc:


I'm here, and enjoy your posts Spicy..
Ditto
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3945. emcf30
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Am I on everyones "ignore list"? I haven't received a repsonse from anyone this year yet

No
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Quoting keithneese:
I see ya too Spicy!


Thanks Keith =)
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Quoting PcolaDan:


All together now:

1

2

3

HELLO SpicyAngel :)


LOL!!!!
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I sorry everyone, belay my last. I just figured it out. RobertonBrickell lives in a condo/apartment and didn't have to clean up anything, nor support his family/neighborhood. If worse came to worse, he would just move to another apartment. Unless the building he was in fell down with him in it, he would have no idea what we are all speaking about. I for one will no longer belabor this issue. The majority of the posters here have been through several storms of various categories and have had to help our friends and neighbors put their lives back together, the best they could, so we each have special feelings/emotions when it comes to tropical storms of any kind. Not one of us would wish this on anyone else. It would be best to look past any statements coming from this user in reference to wanting to be in the path of a major hurricane.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Ivan. Grand Cayman 2004



Paloma. Cayman Brac 2008


These are people's homes.



OMG!! That is absolutely horrible!! It is scary to see what Mother Nature is capable of
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


i was up in NY at that time, ma'am.
Exactly my point. If you had lived through Andrew you would definitely not be wishing for another .
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3937. IKE

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Am I on everyones "ignore list"? I haven't received a repsonse from anyone this year yet
Nope...not on mine.

And deviled eggs are rough. I love em...but.....
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Looks like Broward / Palm Beach counties might get a few showers from our re-Emily after all...

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I see ya too Spicy!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i see ya SA


Hey! How are you?? I haven't talked to you in awhile. I have been "lurking" watching everything with Emily and the waves to come.
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Am I on everyones "ignore list"? I haven't received a repsonse from anyone this year yet


All together now:

1

2

3

HELLO SpicyAngel :)
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It is now past the time of year where a hurricane is typically observed in the Atlantic basin.
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Good thing for the quote button. Don't quote me on that one.
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Quoting DFWjc:


I'm here, and enjoy your posts Spicy..


Thank you =) At least I know I can be seen ...lol!
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Ivan. Grand Cayman 2004



Paloma. Cayman Brac 2008


These are people's homes.
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3928. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i see ya SA
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
3927. DFWjc
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Am I on everyones "ignore list"? I haven't received a repsonse from anyone this year yet


I'm here, and enjoy your posts Spicy..
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3926. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

Quoting RobertFromBrickell:


Understood.


THATS ONCE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Am I on everyones "ignore list"? I haven't received a repsonse from anyone this year yet
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3924. hcubed
Quoting flwthrfan:


Unfortunately, it wouldn't just be "his" house...He's just trying to get everyone to quote him and play his game...gotta ignore the ignorant and move on


With as many on here that love to start "polls", try one in your neighborhood.

Ask your neighbors if they'd be willing to see their houses destroyed and their lives disrupted just to satisfy your "sense of adventure".

Get back to us with their answers. We've given you ours.

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Quoting wxhatt:


Yeah, our nose sticks itself right out there to get smacked!


WXHatt - are you on OBX? It's great out there!

The banks have sure been hit by many hurricanes... I live in Raleigh and like to visit Avon area.
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My Aunt has lived in central florida for 30yrs. She experienced Andrew....I never could imagine until we moved here in 2004 and was welcomed with 4 hurricanes in a row. Now I pop on here as an observer from time to time and usually the most during hurricane season. To try and learn from all of you....I agree that it is interesting but I would never wish landfall on anyone
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Quoting RobertFromBrickell:



Now that is clearly twisting my words around unnecessarily that way, sir. I would never wish for such a thing upon our Haitian friends down there, given' their living conditions. Stop putting words in my mouth, UNDERSTOOD? Never did I ever mention the name Hispaniola in my remarks, i clearly only said South Florida. My ideal hope is for another Andrew type of a scenario where all of our Caribbean friends would be sparred of the storm's wrath, got it? Stop trying to compare them poor Haitians to South Floridians, there's no comparison there. BTW, may God forever bless Haiti. Thanks, =).


You sir, are really messed up in the head. That's all I need to say.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


And that is why Hurricanes suck.
100000000000+
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3919. DFWjc
Quoting CatfishJones:


And that is why Hurricanes suck.


no that would be "blow"... tornadoes "suck"...just sayin'
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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