Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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I believe a surface circulation is developing and intensifying over the waters southeast of the CV islands associated with the tropical wave that emerged off of Africa two days ago. Organization continues of the low's circulation and thunderstorm activity. As for TD Emily, she is probably intensifying now with the best she has looked in her lifetime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


Cool, I been soaking every 30 mins, and been sipping gatorade and water(alternating) I have it about 72F in my pad. Should I sleep, heard conflicting stories your body temp gets warmer sleeping...


You should be OK. You've nipped heat stroke in the bud but the next time you work in extremely warm conditions you've got to take it easy.

Link
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4416. DFWjc
Quoting Progster:


Get into a cool place with AC and rest. Sip some cold water. Maybe have a cool shower (water temp cool but not cold).


Cool, I been soaking every 30 mins, and been sipping gatorade and water(alternating) I have it about 72F in my pad. Should I sleep, heard conflicting stories your body temp gets warmer sleeping...
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4415. scott39
The wave that is over Africa right now, is going to me the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season! You heard it here first. This info and a $1 at Mcdonalds will get you a McDouble.
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Quoting floodzonenc:


and background shower curtains...
let me tell you about the goldfish...
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Quoting DFWjc:
hopefully this is weather related, but i started my first day at Cowboys Stadium(a footy match), and i got a hella sunburn. However that's not the part I'm worried about, I have a temp of 102.2(digital therm) and not feeling sick, any helpful tips?


Get into a cool place with AC and rest. Sip some cold water. Maybe have a cool shower (water temp cool but not cold).
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4410. nigel20
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Quoting FrankZapper:
What ever happened to a 5 cent loaf of bread?
and what the heck happened to the price of gas...
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Harmon



Dickinson (for the elder statesmen like Pat)




NONE of them are the Angiest of all!!!



Love the big, round ear rings..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4407. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...


Also missing the requisite number of bangs.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
4405. JLPR2
Quoting hunkerdown:
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...


Yeah, only a little bit of Jason, not him. :\
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Quoting hunkerdown:
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...
This is true. It also needs 2 exclamation points.
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Quoting phlash:
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?
What ever happened to a 5 cent loaf of bread?
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4402. scott39
Quoting floodzonenc:
Harmon



Dickinson (for the elder statesmen like Pat)




NONE of them are the Angiest of all!!!
I dont care what thier NAME is!!!
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4401. DFWjc
Quoting hunkerdown:
gone in a phlash...


gone like emily? wait no, she keeps coming back, damn, thought i had a funny there...
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Quoting JLPR2:



WOW!

Yeah... I guess so XD
the WOW is not in the right place. It needs to be on the bottom right of the picture and in bold...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting phlash:
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?
gone in a phlash...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4397. DFWjc
Quoting phlash:
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?


one word - Dementia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4396. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lemme not get into the pronunciation of your mascot. :)

I'm sure we all have a little bit of Jason in us.



WOW!

Yeah... I guess so XD
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4395. SLU
Magnitude 5.1 - SAINT LUCIA REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
2011 August 07 04:01:11 UTC


Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 04:01:11 UTC
Sunday, August 07, 2011 at 12:01:11 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 13.826°N, 60.346°W
Depth 42 km (26.1 miles)
Region SAINT LUCIA REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
Distances 72 km (44 miles) ESE of CASTRIES, St. Lucia
113 km (70 miles) NW of BRIDGETOWN, Barbados
116 km (72 miles) SE of FORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique
805 km (500 miles) SE of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4394. phlash
OK - I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a while - and each time I am amazed at how approximately 50% - at best - of the comments have nothing to do with the blog post.

What ever happened to remaining on topic - or at least finding some way to tie in your post to the topic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Greetings again.. I know this site isnt the appropriate place to post this.. but please keep in your thoughts the 31+ GIs (and their families) killed yesterday in Afghanistan..the worst helo crash in the war..
Thanks,
Steve
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I thought there were a lot of Angies but she is the Angiest of them all.
now that should earn you a ban :)
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4391. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's impossible to say at this point. However, I do foresee the eastern Atlantic wave getting quite far west before potentially being picked up by any trough.
The wave still over Africa at about 5W looks strong.
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4390. angiest
Quoting floodzonenc:
OOHHHH!!!  I thought your name was "Angriest" but that you were a crappy speller (a common condition in WUWorld).

Glad to know you don't have anger management issues :)

As for the pronunciation...  :P

Quoting hunkerdown:
?????


Click on my avatar.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
GFS showing a little trough taht may cause some local mischief 4 days out off of N florida.
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Quoting floodzonenc:
OOHHHH!!!  I thought your name was "Angriest" but that you were a crappy speller (a common condition in WUWorld).

Glad to know you don't have anger management issues :)

As for the pronunciation...  :P



I thought there were a lot of Angies but she is the Angiest of them all.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
4387. DFWjc
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lemme not get into the pronunciation of your mascot. :)
I'm sure we all have a little bit of Jason in us.


Ewww. NO!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
This is just wrong...Bette Midler said it best..

with that radar, this is more fitting
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Quoting hunkerdown:
Well I could see that since you walk around in that ridiculous looking bird suit :P
Lemme not get into the pronunciation of your mascot. :)

Quoting angiest:


Wait a second, you are just another incarnation of Jason?
I'm sure we all have a little bit of Jason in us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4384. DFWjc
hopefully this is weather related, but i started my first day at Cowboys Stadium(a footy match), and i got a hella sunburn. However that's not the part I'm worried about, I have a temp of 102.2(digital therm) and not feeling sick, any helpful tips?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lovemamatus:
Bongevine's statement will be out in 131 minutes. I may not be able to stay awake for it. Pay careful attention to the McTavish numbers. If >7.1 we got BIG problems. Wilmington not taking this seriously.



I strangely want a glass of milk now...
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Nice summary of ex-Em.
What you are saying about the big picture is that we appear to be entering a quiet phase through Aug 15. This has been my feeling for some time and I concur.


Most likely, yes. Development could be quite limited with the 20W wave until it reaches the Lesser Antilles in about seven days.
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4380. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO, my name is Robert but it is pronounced as JAY-sin.


Wait a second, you are just another incarnation of Jason?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting scott39:
Do you look for more troughs to turn TCs before landfall in the USA?


That's impossible to say at this point. However, I do foresee the eastern Atlantic wave getting quite far west before potentially being picked up by any trough.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO, my name is Robert but it is pronounced as JAY-sin.
Well I could see that since you walk around in that ridiculous looking bird suit :P
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Just wrote a blog on Emily and the eastern Atlantic. Check it out if you want.
Nice summary of ex-Em.
What you are saying about the big picture is that we appear to be entering a quiet phase through Aug 15. This has been my feeling for some time and I concur.
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4374. Levi32
Quoting hunkerdown:
whoever recolored these GFS images must have been on a really bad trip, or a really good one...


It's making me stop using that site until it goes back to the way it was (if it ever does). I like seeing my 588-592dm ridges the same color every frame. Otherwise I can't tell if heights have risen or fallen.
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This is just wrong...Bette Midler said it best..

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Quoting hunkerdown:
?????
LMAO, my name is Robert but it is pronounced as JAY-sin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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