Emily slides west, still a threat for Hispaniola and Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

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As of 2AM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 17.1N, 71.3W, about 120 miles south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Emily was moving W at 5 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1006 mb. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeast and central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos islands, and eastern Cuba.

Satellite imagery still shows that the majority of convection associated with Emily is east of the center of circulation.


Figure 1 IR Satellite image of TS Emily taken at 2AM EDT August 4, 2011

Emily and the Turn Northwards

According to the most recent forecast issued by NHC, Emily was forecast to be at 17.5N, 72.5W at 2AM EDT, which is a point 68 miles west-northwest of it's assigned location. This indicates that Emily is not curving northwards as expected. This makes me more skeptical of the computer model forecasts that pull Emily to the northwards sharply towards the southeast coast of Florida before recurving out to sea. All of the 00Z global models (NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC) are in rough agreement.

The forecast tracks provided by the suite of simpler models, the Beta and Advection Models and CLIPER, disagree. They have Emily taking a much more gradual turn to the north, thus moving northwest across Cuba. Given that these models have done a better job of predicting Emily's westwards track, I'm inclined to place more confidence in their predictions. However, the further west Emily goes, the chance that Emily makes landfall in Florida (due to a recurve) goes up. People with interests in Cuba and south Florida should keep an eye on this storm.

My opinion about forecasting Emily's intensity has not changed significantly from last evening's update. If Emily's circulation can survive the mountains of Hispaniola and/or the terrain of Cuba, conditions are favorable for moderate intensification.

The current NHC forecast is shown in Figure 2 and has Emily turning towards the north, passing through the western Bahamas before turning out to sea.

In terms of immediate impacts, 6-12 inches of rain are expected over Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, with 20 inches possible in isolated areas. Flash floods and landslides are expected to be major problems on Hispaniola. Tropical storm winds will reach Haiti today and could reach eastern Cuba later today. Port-au-Prince, Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba would be good stations to monitor today.


Figure 2 Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

Eastern Pacific

Eugene reached category 4 status with estimated winds of 140 mph earlier today. After that peak, Eugene started weakening and now has winds of 120 mph. Further weakening is expected as Eugene moves over cooler waters. Invest 97E is not looking as impressive as it was last night and has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical disturbance in the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific

Typhoon Muifa is now forecast to make landfall near Shanghai, China as the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane. This will be troublesome for one of the busiest ports in the world.


Figure 3 Five-day track forecast for Typhoon Muifa from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Angela will have a full post Thursday morning discussing Emily.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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1122. want2lrn
12:11 AM GMT on August 05, 2011
An article from the Corpus Christi Caller. The hits just keep on coming....

SAN ANTONIO — The drought that has turned Texas and parts of the Plains into a parched moonscape of cracked earth could persist into next year, prolonging the misery of farmers and ranchers who have endured a dry spell that is now expected to be the state's worst since the 1950s.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that the La Nina weather phenomenon blamed for the crippling lack of rain might be back soon, just two months after the last La Nina ended. If that happens, the drought would almost certainly extend into 2012.

The extreme dry conditions have been made worse by week after week of triple-digit temperatures, which have caused reservoirs to evaporate, crops to wither and animals and fish to die off by the thousands.

"The suffering and desperate need for relief grows with the rising temperatures and record-breaking heat that continue to scorch Texas with each passing day," state Agricultural Commissioner Todd Staples said.

Even the state's feral hogs are hiding from the heat, postponing a new reality TV show about Texans gunning them down from helicopters.

Texas saw less than an inch of rain statewide in July, and more than 90 percent of the state is already in the two most extreme stages of drought.

"Anything below 2 to 3 inches of rainfall would be a fly-on-the-windshield type thing as far as improvement," said Victor Murphy, a climate expert with the National Weather Service. "It wouldn't reverse this continued death spiral we're on."

Also Thursday, the state climatologist declared this the most severe one-year drought on record in Texas. Officials expected to declare soon that it has become the worst drought since the 1950s.

A newly updated weather map showed the drought holding firm [--] if not intensifying through at least October.

In Dallas, county officials say at least 12 people have died from the heat this summer. The high temperature Thursday was expected to hit 109 degrees, which would be a record for the date.

Statewide demand for power was expected to approach the maximum Thursday for a fourth straight day. Some large industrial plants were forced off the overburdened electric grid, requiring them to shut down or rely on their own power reserves.

And for the first time this summer, utilities warned residential customers of the potential for rolling outages.

Beleaguered farms and dead pastures have been hurt the most. The agriculture industry, which accounts for nearly 9 percent of the Texas economy, may be headed for the biggest single-year losses ever potentially as high as $8 billion, according to the Texas AgriLife Extension Service.

The La Nina watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center warned that the phenomenon marked by a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean could soon redevelop. La Nina typically results in less rain for southern states, and it's blamed for drought conditions in Oklahoma and New Mexico, too.

A La Nina watch means conditions are favorable for La Nina to return within the next six months. But Texas will probably know as early as October or November, said Mike Halpert, a deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

By that time, the driest places could be out of water.

In the town of Robert Lee, a rural farming community of about 1,000 in the middle of West Texas, people are worried that Lake E.V. Spence could dry up by winter and leave the town without any water.

Some residents wonder if the National Guard can haul in water. Making matters worse, a pipe that was probably busted by the dry, shifting ground began gushing water the town cannot spare. City workers scrambled Thursday to fix it.

Closer to Austin, the Llano River trickled at a rate about 95 percent slower than normal. The city of Llano already has contacted bottled water distributors about supplying residents with bottles for cooking and drinking if the river flow stops entirely, which could happen in a matter of weeks.

"It's amazing we're still getting what water we are," City Manager Finley deGraffenried said. "We're running 107 degrees yesterday and the day before. It's unbearable."

Texas received no significant rain in April or May, which are typically the state's wettest months. Lake levels are so low that earlier this week, a massive chunk of the space shuttle Columbia that broke apart over Texas in 2003 was found poking out of the receded waters of Lake Nacogdoches.

About 70 percent of Texas rangeland and pastures are classified as being in very poor condition, which means there has been complete or near-complete crop failure or there's no food for grazing livestock.

One of the most memorable droughts occurred in the 1950s, when a decade of below-average rainfall and long dry spells actually changed the state's demographics, with many families fleeing parched farms for cities. Experts say the current drought is nowhere near so severe, but if it continues, the scarcity of water will be painful.

In the mid-1950s, Texas had a population of 7 million.

"We got a state with 25 million now. You can see the impact would be significantly greater if we had a drought that the 1950s had," said Travis Miller, a member of the state's Drought Preparedness Council and AgriLife Extension Service leader.

One upside is that second La Ninas are historically weaker than the first, Halpert said.

The formation of La Nina also doesn't guarantee there won't be significant rain. The pattern often makes for a more active hurricane season, which could lash Texas with a soaking storm. Forecasters said Thursday they still see a busy hurricane season ahead, calling for 14 to 19 tropical storms.

"If I was in Texas, this is not great news," Halpert said. "But it's not the end of the world."


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1121. FlaLily
9:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Hi,
We've had a weird "front" of clouds move through fast and then the Emily caves. All summer we've had strange clouds, long thin and the growing wide and not dissipating. When the tropical clouds "steam up" and hit these long flat lines of clouds, the puffy clouds just go flat and disappear. I've lived by the ocean all my life and never seen tropical clouds just fizzle like they've been doing all summer > O-o
Member Since: July 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1120. AWeatherLover
8:33 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
RIP Emily. I see Haiti killed her. Anyone have any guesses when she will reorganize?
Member Since: November 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
1119. scottsvb
7:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting beell:


It was a straight-up opinion. It's a brand-new season!


Is Reedzone still crying.. it's been 8 years.. lol

My guess was that he prodicted this to come up the east coast of Florida by Melbourne and exit by his house near south of Daytona... right??
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1614
1118. tropicfreak
6:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe the National Hurricane Center should shift the cone over quite a bit...Not these tiny 25-50 mi. shifts that they are doing. Its obvious we're missing something that this hasn't moved like it is supposed to.

This is a complicated storm, I hate her.


That or make the cone bigger.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1117. Waltanater
6:07 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
Beautiful day here in S.E. Florida..... Wind non existent, seas hot at 87 degrees F and barely 1 to 2 feet. I should be out fishing..... as me thinks this is the calm before the storm....
"Me thinks" you should learn some English! LOL
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
1116. Waltanater
5:54 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
When does the first hurricane normally form?
Aug 10th, on average.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
1115. FLHurricaneHunter
5:30 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
I believe you are correct.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:



Note: Swirl at 17.1N 72.8W appears to be the LLC
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1114. Waltanater
5:29 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


he made a typo he ment 71.7 I think it was
yeah, I saw that later...thanks kid.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
1113. HurricaneHunterJoe
5:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Emily moving along the predicted path.

Link


yup,still moving west
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5156
1112. oceanblues32
5:04 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Hello all I do not think I ever formally introduced myself. My name is Amy I live in SE florida hollywood beach area. I am not studying to be a meterologist or am I one but I have just always been fascinated with weather and perhaps I should have studied to be one!! I have been coming to this blog for a few years now just so interested in the conversation and information that is given in here!!! i was curious how much movement to the west would be needed to actually hit SE fl?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1111. oceanblues32
5:02 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Hello all I do not think I ever formally introduced myself. My name is Amy I live in SE florida hollywood beach area. I am not studying to be a meterologist or am I one but I have just always been fascinated with weather and perhaps I should have studied to be one!! I have been coming to this blog for a few years now just so interested in the conversation and information that is given in here!!! i was curious how much movement to the west would be needed to actually hit SE fl?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1110. texwarhawk
5:02 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
I believe Hispaniola is really taking its toll on Emily. Although her COC isn't over land she is pushing all her convection into the mountains and is pulling the dry air that results into her center. This would explain the recent drastic decline in convection and TPW.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
1109. PcolaDan
5:01 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
NEEEEEEWWWWW BLOOOOOOOGGGGG
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1108. beell
5:01 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Ohh but what scott says, goes :)

Even Mother Nature can't prove him wrong.


It was a straight-up opinion. It's a brand-new season!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16271
1107. xtremeweathertracker
5:00 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
TS Emily Update With Video
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
1106. ecflweatherfan
4:59 PM GMT on August 04, 2011



Note: Swirl at 17.1N 72.8W appears to be the LLC
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
1105. SouthDadeFish
4:58 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
HWRF brings Emily to 967mb in 54 hours. Favorable conditions ahead, but I don't think that favorable.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1104. weathermanwannabe
4:57 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting chrisdscane:
It seems like she headin north now huh guys


All of her convection is "sweeping" towards the North (over Haiti) but the now exposed center is still South of the Haitian peninsula sort of stationary at the moment.........Not sure when the HH Hunters will get there but they can hopefully sort things out (whether there is a viable COC). The 5:00 PM discussion should be interesting in light of the current deterioration.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8850
1103. Grothar
4:57 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Hey Gro! How goes it?


Flood!! It's going. On my way back to FL tonight or tomorrow.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
1102. NICycloneChaser
4:56 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


I think Emily is trying to decouple again you can almost see the center trying to become visible on the western edge of convection!! IMO


I don't think she's decoupling as such, more just that the convection near her centre is collapsing. I suspect her circulation will indeed become visible again before she's clear of Haiti.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1101. 7544
4:55 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
wosw did emily just pull a don and colapse completly over hispanola is this the end
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1099. NICycloneChaser
4:54 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
To my eyes, on satellite, she's moving northwest, but we'll see shortly when recon finds the centre. She needs to clear Hispaniola soon, mountains are causing serious damage and she isn't even fully over them yet.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1098. K8eCane
4:53 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Niiice...now I have coffee on my screen and down my shirt...



This Blog really is more fun than a barrel of monkeys yall!
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1097. hydrus
4:53 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
1096. SouthDadeFish
4:53 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
12Z HWRF really likes to ramp up Emily right after she clears Hispaniola. At 978mb through 48 hours. Not sure if she'll be that well intact to strengthen like that.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1095. xtremeweathertracker
4:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011:


emilys coc is still moving west clearing the land area..


I think Emily is trying to decouple again you can almost see the center trying to become visible on the western edge of convection!! IMO
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
1094. reedzone
4:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting beell:


Always been a possibility. Emily continues to show a strong, very broad, and elongate low level (850mb) circulation. A track across the western third of Haiti and back over water will probably not dissapate this completely. A good chance something will remain over/near the windward passge and take advantage of gradually improving conditions.


Ohh but what scott says, goes :)

Even Mother Nature can't prove him wrong.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1093. RescueAFR
4:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Interesting site for model information..
Link
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1092. chrisdscane
4:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
guys i dont see her coc moving west looks stationsry or nw to me guees my eyes are to old :D
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1091. IceCoast
4:51 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
42Hrs HWRF
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1090. uptxcoast
4:51 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Niiice...now I have coffee on my screen and down my shirt...


I would have as well but it evaporated on the way down.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 234
1089. kmanislander
4:51 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
NEW BLOG !
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1088. 69Viking
4:51 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Caner:
Why on earth don't we have a radar in Dominican Republic?

We give a billion a year to the Palestinians, and can't spring for a radar station in DR?

What gives?


Aren't we paying to rebuild Haiti, let's just put one there!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3016
1086. beell
4:50 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting scottsvb:
Emily will probably be gone in the next 6-12hrs

Too many LLV with pressure drops matching the original LLC causing a bubbling affect with the distrubution of wind thus causing pressure fluctuations. Eventually drier air from the mountains of Hispaniola cut off the midlevel low causing the pressure to rise and thus spitting out the original LLC which is a dying LLV approaching Jamaica. Most winds are backing to a trough angle and this system is now more than a trough of lower pressure. I wouldn't be suprised if Recon finds no pressure under 1009mbs and no defined LLC. Anyways.. Emily is dead or almost dead...peak pressure was 1002mb.. there is a small chance about 30% that this system could regenerate if it makes it north of Cuba in 36hrs


Always been a possibility. Emily continues to show a strong, very broad, and elongate low level (850mb) circulation. A track across the western third of Haiti and back over water will probably not dissapate this completely. A good chance something will remain over/near the windward passge and take advantage of gradually improving conditions.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16271
1084. chrisdscane
4:49 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting 69Viking:


Even easier to see it on the when you run the animation. It's definetly left again of the forecast points and soon should be pulling away from the mountains enough to regain some organization. Time will tell....



Sry man i just dont see this i see a more NW motion
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1090
1083. rmbjoe1954
4:48 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Ems gets pulled NW later today, then after crossing into the Bahamas, the weakness will leave and the eastern AZ High will build more west, thus pushing Ems to the WNW for about 12-24 hours, then either grazing the coastline or potentially making landfall in South Florida, heads north either along or right on the coastline (depending if it makes landfall). When it reaches Melbourne, FL, a shortwave trough digging south from the Midwest should recurve Ems sharply out to sea.


Thanks, Reed. Hopefully Emily will be only be a 'bad summer thunerstorm' event for us.

Have a good day!
1082. cctxshirl
4:48 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
is there any way Emily could end up in the GOM? Any opinions on that?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 334
1081. 69Viking
4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Center is becoming visible on RGB, looks a little port of track.



Even easier to see it on the when you run the animation. It's definetly left again of the forecast points and soon should be pulling away from the mountains enough to regain some organization. Time will tell....
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3016
1080. SouthDadeFish
4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
This is what I call circulation fail in the last few frames:

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1079. klew136
4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Open the link and click on the map.

Link


I like that site, thanks
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1078. IceCoast
4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
36 Hrs HWRF
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1077. galvestonhurricane
4:46 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
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1076. chrisdscane
4:46 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
It seems like she headin north now huh guys
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1075. Autistic2
4:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting SWLACajun:
Ok, so we have Emily who 'can't decide what dress to wear' and/or 'can't keep her clothes on' which eludes to 'not much organization upstairs'....who is in a trough-ical climate and is probably going to be affected by ridge 'amortis. Is she a blonde??


Must be tge blue pills but I think is is very funny!
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 456
1074. IceCoast
4:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting galvestonhurricane:

That's the 6z, 12z is running now but we can use that for comparison.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1073. aspectre
4:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
As demonstrattion of why I haven't been posting 3hour mappings using the NHC coordinates...
...but mostly because TS.Emily's travel-speed has more than doubled.

TS.Emily's travel-speed was 12mph(19.3k/h) on a heading of 292.7degrees(WestNorthWest)

The longest segment is just a check of the Cuba-Jamaica passage.
The second longest before that is the distance between the latest NHC coordinate and the (straightline-projected) nearest-point that TS.Emily's center will approach Haiti.

Copy&paste 16.7n69.7w-16.8n70.3w, 16.8n70.3w-16.9n71.0w, 16.9n71.0w-16.9n70.6w, 16.9n70.6w-17.1n71.0w, 17.1n71.0w-17.1n71.3w, 17.1n71.3w-17.3n71.7w, 17.3n71.7w-17.1n71.8w, 17.1n71.8w-17.3n72.3w, gcm, cyb, mzo, cya, 17.1n71.8w-17.93n73.9w, 17.1n71.8w-19.35n77.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the NHC coordinates for 12pmGMT then 3pmGMT :
TS.Emily was headed toward passing 5.5miles(8.9kilometres) south of Haiti
a bit less than 8hours from now.

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1072. FLGatorCaneNut
4:44 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
Beautiful day here in S.E. Florida..... Wind non existent, seas hot at 87 degrees F and barely 1 to 2 feet. I should be out fishing..... as me thinks this is the calm before the storm....
Member Since: July 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 179

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.