Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

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All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.

Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.

This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.

Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast

Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.

Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.

Angela

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1460. galvestonhurricane
4:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
New Blog post!!
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
1459. BahaHurican
10:35 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
Convection looked even better last night, actually. It was more intense, and had a larger coverage.

And the pressure findings are very significant as they indicate our storm hasn't strengthened at all, and if anything, Emily has weakened, slightly. Not to mention it was near 4 AM (LST-Local Standard Time) when and where Recon made that report. 4 AM is one of two, twice daily, pressure minimums that occur over the global oceans (the other one occurs at 4 PM). Therefore, diurnal pressure cycles favor a lower pressure at the moment, and yet Recon is actually finding higher pressures.
Tom, I understand your point about diurnal pressure minimums, but it most certainly was not near 4 a.m. when that pressure of 1007 was taken. It was 1:45 EDT / AST, or if you prefer 12:45 EST. Nowhere near Dmin.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21946
1458. debrisball
9:01 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Seawall:


It's pretty clear that he doesn't have Aspergers; it looks like a manic depressive disorder to me, and without his meds, it gets worse. Talking won't help him; he's also obsessed with this blog, and he's also obsessed with posting something as quickly as he can, for recognition. It's sad, but it's not ours or mine to cure. Just the way it is. It's for Jason's family to help him; we simply can't. All we will do is enable him.


Clearly how? You say he's obsessed with the blog and posing as quickly as he can,both hallmarks of AS, and you're correct that communicating is very difficult for him. I'm not sure it's possible to ever really 'cure' a syndrome, but on the plus side for him is that I think he has a joie de vivre which most of us do not.

People with Asperger syndrome often display behavior, interests, and activities that are restricted and repetitive and are sometimes abnormally intense or focused. They may stick to inflexible routines, move in stereotyped and repetitive ways, or preoccupy themselves with parts of objects.[24]

Pursuit of specific and narrow areas of interest is one of the most striking features of AS.[3] Individuals with AS may collect volumes of detailed information on a relatively narrow topic such as weather data or star names, without necessarily having genuine understanding of the broader topic


Whatever the case may be, the # of posts from others on the subject I bet far exceeds the # of his actual posts (at least all weather related) combined the past few days, and here I am adding to that # as I type this. Still learning the superpower that triple K dude has of taking the millisecond to scroll past an irritating comment and just let it roll off, not that easy
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
1457. emguy
7:47 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
Convection looked even better last night, actually. It was more intense, and had a larger coverage.

And the pressure findings are very significant as they indicate our storm hasn't strengthened at all, and if anything, Emily has weakened, slightly. Not to mention it was near 4 AM (LST-Local Standard Time) when and where Recon made that report. 4 AM is one of two, twice daily, pressure minimums that occur over the global oceans (the other one occurs at 4 PM). Therefore, diurnal pressure cycles favor a lower pressure at the moment, and yet Recon is actually finding higher pressures.


WOW! Satellite...Image! Respectfully, it's a comparison of apples to oranges. Lat night, the action was sheared to the east. Tonight, whe are getting very nice wrap around under decreased shear. Yes, this is a reinvention of Emily. Unfortunately, and understandably, we live in a "live data, I want to know now, what is it now" environment. What people will learn to understand is as fast as our technology becomes, and as impatient as we become in our craving for I want it now info, mother nature, weather, and physics will ultimately not catch up. In the end, we will ALL learn the importantance of being patient. Just my soapbox, no reflection on you. Mean time, check out that new satellite image... you tell me...
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 629
1456. MississippiWx
7:46 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
New Blog.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1455. guygee
7:41 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
I think just being in the vicinity south of those mountains has to be detrimental to surface organization. According to this source,
"The mountains of the southern peninsula, an extension of the southern mountain chain of the Dominican Republic (the Sierra de Baoruco), extend from the Massif de la Selle in the east to the Massif de la Hotte in the west. The range's highest peak, the Morne de la Selle, is the highest point in Haiti, rising to an altitude of 2,715 meters. The Massif de la Hotte varies in elevation from 1,270 to 2,255 meters."
It is almost as if Emily has a big mile-high wall to her north. Crossing that wall has killed plenty of her predecessors.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3150
1454. TomTaylor
7:41 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Before I head off to bed, just wanted to summarize my thoughts on Emily.

Recon's observations have found a minimum pressure of 1007mb, indicating the storm hasn't intensified at all despite impressive convective blow-ups. This just goes to show how unorganized Emily remains. At the low levels, although the circulation is closed, there is a trough attached to the SW. Additionally, the MLC remains non-stacked over the LLC and convection remains lopsided to the east. At the upper levels, despite a decent upper level anticyclone over the system creating divergence aloft, an upper trough feature to the north is keeping moderate shear over the system and upper level convergence to the NW. This moderate shear partially explains the reason why the MLC and convection have been off to the east the entire time. Another reason we are seeing more convection on this side is due to greater divergence aloft and convergence below on this side, naturally favoring convection more on this side. The net result, is a broad, poorly consolidated, unaligned (vertically), lopsided (convection-wise), disorganized system named Emily.

The center fix from Recon also shows that the storm is moving very slowly and has yet to make a turn northward. Perhaps the slow speed is a sign that Emily is trying to begin the turn north, but it's hard to say at the moment. Anyway, Emily should eventually turn out a bit, heading more WNW/NW, causing her to weaken after crossing the Haitian peninsula. Although this peninsula is fairly skinny, it is also very rugged and mountainous (7,000 ft mountain tops on the peninsula). After the peninsula, Emily will have more land interaction as she crosses Cuba.

All this land interaction will only hurt the very disorganized TS Emily. Given the fact that Recon only found a 1007mb low (right in the midst of a diurnal pressure minimum), the LLC has a trough attached, the MLC is decoupled, and convection is very lopsided, I expect Emily will look pretty bad after the land interaction.

Steering in response to the Atlantic ridge building in should take Emily along the Bahamas and then just off the coast of Florida, if not over it, before Emily (or whatever is left of her) begins a turn out to sea, in response to zonal flow (E-W flow) and a very weak shortwave across the NE US. Intensification in the Atlantic (after the Caribbean) will be hard to come by. Personally, I believe any intensification after leaving the greater Antilles will be very slow, to non existent at least for the first couple of days. Land interaction will keep the storm weak and disorganized at first (Thursday). Then shear, upper convergence, dry air, and subsidence will all become less favorable as Emily nears the massive ridge (on Friday and Saturday). ECMWF and GFS 200mb winds and SHIPS forecast strongly support this.

The only shot I really see Emily having at significant development is once it gets underneath the periphery of the US ridge (in about 3/4 days). SHIPS guidance, and the GFS 0z shear run both indicate shear will lighten up at that time, and so will upper level convergence. Which should give Emily her best shot at intensifying during this time period. Still, it will have to deal with dry air and subsidence characteristic of all ridges.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1453. MississippiWx
7:40 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
Looks like recon is heading back for the night. Normally I would complain, but given the 1007mb minimum pressure finding, I can't blame them at all. Emily hasn't strengthened at all...if anything she has weakened slightly.


I don't think it has so much to do with the intensity as it does the proximity to land.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1452. wunderkidcayman
7:39 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting bdm2225:
No rain or wind so far in Port-au-Prince, lightning visible in the distance now. She's almost here....

I think that you are only going to get the outer rainbands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11848
1450. TomTaylor
7:38 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Looks like recon is heading back for the night. Normally I would complain, but given the 1007mb minimum pressure finding, I can't blame them at all. Emily hasn't strengthened at all...if anything she has weakened slightly.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1449. MoltenIce
7:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Looks like she's hammering the Dominican Republic with rain.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
1448. TomTaylor
7:36 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:

If she decided she actually wants to move across Haiti lol
true lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1447. wunderkidcayman
7:36 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:

If she decided she actually wants to move across Haiti lol

yeah I don't even think it will make landfall in Haiti
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11848
1446. bdm2225
7:35 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
No rain or wind so far in Port-au-Prince, lightning visible in the distance now. She's almost here....
Member Since: July 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1445. TomTaylor
7:34 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting guygee:
The largest mountains are in the southern part of Haiti, with a large range extending to the tip of the southern peninsula. Those mountains must have some negative effect on the surface inflow, and Emily may not show much intensification until it clears Hispaniola.
yes the region is still very rugged and mountainous.

It will probably run into Cuba a little later down the road as well.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1444. Drakoen
7:34 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

Quoting guygee:
The largest mountains are in the southern part of Haiti, with a large range extending to the tip of the southern peninsula. Those mountains must have some negative effect on the surface inflow, and Emily may not show much intensification until it clears Hispaniola.
If she decided she actually wants to move across Haiti lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1443. guygee
7:31 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
The largest mountains are in the southern part of Haiti, with a large range extending to the tip of the southern peninsula. Those mountains must have some negative effect on the surface inflow, and Emily may not show much intensification until it clears Hispaniola.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3150
1442. winter123
7:24 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

Very high circular clouds over the COC... maybe Emily is finally getting her act together? Or maybe will be sheared apart by mid-afternoon like every other day...

In other news, Eugene is definitely looking annular IMO.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1786
1441. TomTaylor
7:19 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting emguy:
Actually, the pressure rise is not a big deal since Emily is not estblished. If this was a well devloped hurricane, it would be different, but I've seen this "pressure rise belch" many times before as the satellite presentation improves. I'm actually more concerned that not. We are starting to see the best satellite representation yet, and thunderstorms in the NE quad. In re-org, you will see a pressure rise as presentation improves, then a drop in pressure hours later, then a response in the winds. Just something to watch for.
Convection looked even better last night, actually. It was more intense, and had a larger coverage.

And the pressure findings are very significant as they indicate our storm hasn't strengthened at all, and if anything, Emily has weakened, slightly. Not to mention it was near 4 AM (LST-Local Standard Time) when and where Recon made that report. 4 AM is one of two, twice daily, pressure minimums that occur over the global oceans (the other one occurs at 4 PM). Therefore, diurnal pressure cycles favor a lower pressure at the moment, and yet Recon is actually finding higher pressures.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1440. Seawall
7:17 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Jeez, thought I had seen a WNW jog, but looking again, what I think is the center might have actually taken a WSW jog. This one might go down in history as the hardest to forecast ever.. Nite all.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1439. wunderkidcayman
7:17 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
when is the next recon flight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11848
1438. MississippiWx
7:17 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Seawall:
Thanks, MS, that explains it. Appreciate your help. No loops for me unless the fruit loop kind.. LOL


LOL. No problem. Just takes a little while to learn everything.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1437. MississippiWx
7:15 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Looks like recon is heading home. Just another WTF moment with Emily.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1436. MississippiWx
7:13 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Emily really refuses to move much at all. Whatever motion she has is to the west.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1435. ChrisDcat5Storm
7:13 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
someone post the 2am model runs plz
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1434. Seawall
7:13 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Thanks, MS, that explains it. Appreciate your help. No loops for me unless the fruit loop kind.. LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1432. Seawall
7:12 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1431. MississippiWx
7:11 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Seawall:
I can post a "still" image, but not a "moving" one.. LOL I'm just old.


You can't post loops unless you make a loop yourself through a .gif. The loops provided by Wunderground usually work on the blog though if you do the correct process.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1430. Seawall
7:10 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
I can post a "still" image, but not a "moving" one.. LOL I'm just old.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1429. MississippiWx
7:09 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
000
URNT15 KNHC 040703
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 20 20110804
065200 1611N 06943W 5471 05119 0215 -033 //// 181032 037 /// /// 05
065230 1611N 06941W 5306 05360 0229 -036 //// 184025 025 /// /// 05
065300 1612N 06940W 5161 05583 0244 -043 //// 192024 025 031 004 05
065330 1613N 06938W 5038 05774 0258 -050 //// 200023 024 029 004 01
065400 1613N 06936W 4911 05973 0269 -060 //// 201024 025 /// /// 05
065430 1614N 06934W 4793 06166 0283 -071 //// 199025 025 025 002 05
065500 1614N 06932W 4682 06346 0294 -078 //// 197022 023 025 001 05
065530 1615N 06930W 4578 06523 0307 -088 //// 194021 022 024 001 05
065600 1616N 06928W 4477 06698 0319 -097 //// 182021 023 027 001 05
065630 1616N 06926W 4388 06857 0330 -109 //// 174020 023 024 002 05
065700 1617N 06924W 4286 07037 0343 -119 //// 167019 019 026 001 05
065730 1618N 06922W 4204 07187 0357 -129 //// 161019 019 024 002 01
065800 1618N 06920W 4114 07352 0369 -137 //// 157016 016 022 003 01
065830 1619N 06918W 4051 07470 0377 -143 //// 165015 016 024 003 01
065900 1619N 06916W 3998 07571 0385 -149 //// 173017 017 025 003 05
065930 1620N 06914W 3939 07686 0392 -158 //// 167018 019 026 002 01
070000 1621N 06912W 3918 07723 0393 -160 //// 149016 017 027 004 01
070030 1621N 06910W 3922 07714 0391 -160 //// 132011 013 025 004 01
070100 1622N 06908W 3930 07698 0390 -160 //// 131010 011 024 003 01
070130 1623N 06905W 3921 07714 0391 -160 //// 135010 011 027 002 01
$$
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1428. Seawall
7:08 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Tried that, MS, and it's just not working.. I'm just having bad luck tonight! Thanks for your help, though.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1427. NJcat3cane
7:08 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
any chance of the front slowing down or the high building back in?
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1426. MississippiWx
7:08 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No one knows what happened to Recon?


Dunno...but it's interesting that they ascended. Hope they weren't having more issues.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1425. Drakoen
7:07 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
The new 00z runs have Emily making landfall at the tip of the DR right now which is clearly not the case as she continues to move off towards the west.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
1424. wunderkidcayman
7:07 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
look like they are headed home
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11848
1423. MiamiHurricanes09
7:06 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
No one knows what happened to Recon?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
1422. MississippiWx
7:06 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Seawall:
I give up trying to post a dynamic model. I call it quits for the night... Read and read, and just can't "get it"


Right click on the image. Click "copy image location". Come to the blog, click on the image icon. Paste the image location into the box. Click ok.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1421. wunderkidcayman
7:03 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting yesterway:
Sorry I gave you the wrong link. This is for HH tracking

Link

that is the NOAA high level flyer G-IV not the AF WC-130J
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11848
1420. Seawall
7:03 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1419. MississippiWx
7:01 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:
Emily firing nicely tonight, but the pressure is up to 1007mb? Emily is confusing.


Also, Euro showing something in the EAtl


Usually when both the GFS and Euro lock onto something, it has a pretty high chance of occurring. We'll see if they continue.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1418. yesterway
6:59 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Sorry I gave you the wrong link. This is for HH tracking

Link
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1417. JLPR2
6:59 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Emily firing nicely tonight, but the pressure is up to 1007mb? Emily is confusing.


Also, Euro showing something in the EAtl
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8669
1416. yesterway
6:54 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Caribbean flight tracker to locate HHLink
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1415. MississippiWx
6:54 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting Seawall:
Sorry, more WNW to me, but it might be a slight jog in the track...


Just slightly north of due west, but this would be classified as a west movement:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1414. MississippiWx
6:53 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting emguy:


Actually, you need to archive that photo just in case...please read my previous post for a better explanation. It's speculative for now, but you may be seeing what you are seeing...


Yeah, I read it. But Emily has looked like this for a while now. It doesn't normally take this long for strengthening to respond. Something just isn't right with Emily and hasn't been the entire time.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10227
1413. Seawall
6:52 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Sorry, more WNW to me, but it might be a slight jog in the track...
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1412. emguy
6:51 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
Any other time I'd be saying we have a borderline hurricane on our hands. Not with Emily. Nope. She's one of those people who puts on a nice front to fool you into thinking she's a great person, but she's really the devil on the inside.



Actually, you need to archive that photo just in case...please read my previous post for a better explanation. It's speculative for now, but you may be seeing what you are seeing...
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 629
1411. Seawall
6:50 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



which way is she moving NW?


Looks like it to me; I tried to post a loop, but it turned out static; not sure how to post the loop.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
1410. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
6:50 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
I've come to the conclusion that Emily is blind, that's why she cant find the weakness... lol a little storm humor for your headache.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 476

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.