Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

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All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.

Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.

This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.

Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast

Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.

Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.

Angela

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is she going north now?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Guys... Jason has a Serious Mental Disorder... Can we please stop making fun of him?
No he doesn't.

*Back to topic*.
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1155. hcubed
Looks like the posters that were putting out their false models have been replaced with blank space.

Thanks, Admin...
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1152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, but is it something to worry about for future. I knew about solar max that is supposed to occurs in 2011-2013 (don't know exact year), but is it something to REALLY worry about?
it happens next year 2012 late fall early winter for peak then slow drop in activity after that we should be back in the cave man days by then


lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
1151. JRRP
Quoting lordhuracan01:


where?

really nice gusty winds in Santo Domingo Dominican Republic
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1149. 7544
with that specail update at 1145 pm could we watches for so fla as early as 5am hope it was a real one lol
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
yea, but is it something to worry about for future. I knew about solar max that is supposed to occurs in 2011-2013 (don't know exact year), but is it something to REALLY worry about?


Not at this time, the sun is climbing out from a deep solar minimum that lasted from 2006 to 2009. It takes time for the sun to get from Min to Max. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is predicting solar max in May 2013 with a Sunspot Number of 90 (weaker than the Y2K solar max).
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Quoting HydeandSeek:
Bluestorm5, I don't think you have anything to worry about that far inland. If we in NC get anything at all (Big If) it will probably be a Hatteras brush by which usually means a beautiful day that far inland due to subsistence. But of course, noone really can tell for sure that far out so keep monitoring the storm.
well, I was hoping for some rain here. Filming the storm is also my hobby, so I was actually hoping for weather action... but I hate it for Haiti to get hit by this system through :\
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Yeah, I was definitely joking.


Guys... Jason has a Serious Mental Disorder... Can we please stop making fun of him?
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Quoting MTWX:

Almost looks like she came to a stop and is contimplating just going back east from this loop!! That would be something to see wouldn't it!


Yeap, seems like Emily is experiencing anomally times...
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1144. wxhatt
Quoting HydeandSeek:
Hi, I'm a first time poster...so go easy on me please. I've lurked around on this site for years and I always follow the Hmmm Hmmm colorful discussions with a great deal of interest. I live on the pamlico sound in NC. This storm makes me a bit nervous. If I lived on the east coast of Florida I would be even more nervous! I think there is a good chance ya'll might get smacked with a strengthing system after Emily leaves the islands. And if the models are overestimating the timing of that eastward turn then we here on the NC banks may have something to worry about as well. I've just seen it happen too many times. We stick out like a sore thumb and systems coming off the east coast of Florida tend to gain strength over the gulf stream and brush right over us. My daughter is named Emily and well if she is any indication I am expecting this storm to be tenacious and full of surprises! LOL


I know, I remember Emily (1993). Quite the storm!!
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Quoting centex:
yes we could, but at this point late.


I like it!
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you know there was a wave and low that passed us a few days ago and if i recall it travelled in the same path emily is going mmmmmm makes me thinks *scrath head*
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1141. MTWX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALC077-079-083-089-040515-
/O.CON.KHUN.SV.W.0258.000000T0000Z-110804T0515Z/
LAUDERDALE AL-LAWRENCE AL-LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL-
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MADISON...LIMESTONE...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
MERIDIANVILLE TO 19 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROGERSVILLE...RED BANK...ATHENS...CAPSHAW...FRENCH MILL...
NORMAL...RIPLEY...TANNER...HUNTSVILLE...REDSTONE ARSENAL AND MADISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM METAL FENCES AND HIGH OBJECTS
SUCH AS TREES. AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

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I just noticed that the GFS didn't shift east it just split tropical storm emily into 2 areas of surface vorticity, one over south florida and one ne of bahamas. GFS does not have any handle on emily after hispanola
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Recon descending.
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Quoting QPhysFTW:


You want to dig a rabbit hole? I've got a pretty big shovel. :P I could seriously dive pretty far into this, but I doubt this blog is the place for that discussion. Originally, I was going stick to a brief outline, but that proved impossible. I can post a brief-ish discussion on my own blog, though. I'll post here when it's done.
I would love to hear your thoughts since you are studying this now. I suspect it has something to do with string, extra dimensions, and the 5th force.But yes this may not be the time, ......... BUT it's more interestng than these Jason debates.
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1137. centex
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
dang finally, steering current has shifted slightly north ,we could see a northerly jogg soon/
yes we could, but at this point late.
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Bluestorm5, I don't think you have anything to worry about that far inland. If we in NC get anything at all (Big If) it will probably be a Hatteras brush by which usually means a beautiful day that far inland due to subsistence. But of course, noone really can tell for sure that far out so keep monitoring the storm.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nice updrafts developing around the eastern quadrant.


I'd actually put the center very close to that circular ring. We'll see what recon says. I still say Emily is stronger than earlier.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1134. MTWX
People of North Alabama need to be alert!
Link

These storms are cookin right along!
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
dang finally, steering current has shifted slightly north ,we could see a northerly jogg soon/

no it didn't well kinda but further West and North the ridge still pussing W and S
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Quoting Slamguitar:


I thought this was a Jason post just reading "Eye??", although it would've been more like: "EYE!!!!!!!!!!"


Lol...Yeah, I was definitely joking.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:
Eye?? :-p



I thought this was a Jason post just reading "Eye??", although it would've been more like: "EYE!!!!!!!!!!"
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Eye?? :-p

Nice updrafts developing around the eastern quadrant.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Eye?? :-p

there's something in the right one ...lol!
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1128. GetReal


I would not be surprised if RECON finds a stronger TS Emily, 60-65 mph. It appears that the COC is directly under the CDO.... Emily is going to take advantage of the DMAX.
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Quoting JRRP:
gusty wind now in Santo Domingo


where?
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Eye?? :-p

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
dang finally, steering current has shifted slightly north ,we could see a northerly jogg soon/
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1124. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Minor, actually. I majored in math and chemistry, but near the end of my undergrad career I really gravitated (bad pun...sorry...) toward physics. Nothing to do with weather, really, but I've always held interest in the atmosphere as a hobby, and there's not much I love more than a big snowstorm.

Right now, I'm going into my second year of grad school, to make a living off of quantum mechanics. I like to think of my job as manipulating the nature of reality itself, although after a twelve hour shift in the lab it doesn't feel quite that glamorous :P


I have a Ph. D. in it. What is your field?
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1123. MTWX
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like gettin in shape...


Almost looks like she came to a stop and is contimplating just going back east from this loop!! That would be something to see wouldn't it!
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Quoting robj144:


You a physics major?


Minor, actually. I majored in math and chemistry, but near the end of my undergrad career I really gravitated (bad pun...sorry...) toward physics. Nothing to do with weather, really, but I've always held interest in the atmosphere as a hobby, and there's not much I love more than a big snowstorm.

Right now, I'm going into my second year of grad school, to make a living off of quantum mechanics. I like to think of my job as manipulating the nature of reality itself, although after a twelve hour shift in the lab it doesn't feel quite that glamorous :P
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:


1. Solar flares can cause radio blackouts (on the day side)

2. They can fire CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) which causes Geomagnetic Storms, and this causes auroras

3. The strongest CMEs can temporary disrupt satellites and possibly, blackouts on earth
yea, but is it something to worry about for future. I knew about solar max that is supposed to occurs in 2011-2013 (don't know exact year), but is it something to REALLY worry about?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i seem to have forgotten how to post images can some one assist?


you need to have a upload page for your photos, for you upload the photos that you want....... do you have one?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
She's gonna be a tropical depression now, lol.


Lol..If that's the case, I'll step away from tropical weather for a while. LOL.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1118. centex
Message to new posters. 1) Read the blog entry your posting to. 2) Read the latest NHC dicussion on system your interested in. 3) Look at sat loops on that system.

Than ask questions.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
img src =http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8dlm1.GIF


You have to copy that code, clicking first on the Image button and pasting that code in there...

Then click on Post Comment...

But, don't give up, keep on trying...
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1115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
05L/TS/E
MARK
17.27N/71.44W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
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1113. nigel20
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rrrrrggrggrggg
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
She's gonna be a tropical depression now, lol.
actually, NOW, they will say her circulation is open :)
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img src="
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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