Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

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All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.

Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.

This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.

Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast

Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.

Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.

Angela

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Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 260
URNT15 KNHC 040511
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 09 20110804
050200 1703N 06846W 5575 05002 //// -019 //// 200020 021 033 004 01
050230 1703N 06848W 5792 04687 //// -009 //// 205022 024 033 004 01
050300 1704N 06851W 6022 04386 //// -002 //// 194032 035 034 003 01
050330 1705N 06853W 6284 04046 //// +012 //// 173039 040 034 000 05
050400 1705N 06855W 6556 03702 //// +037 //// 165041 041 032 002 01
050430 1706N 06857W 6813 03387 //// +060 //// 154038 039 033 001 05
050500 1707N 06859W 7077 03072 //// +078 //// 147036 038 034 004 01
050530 1707N 06901W 7329 02779 //// +096 //// 147033 035 035 006 01
050600 1708N 06903W 7594 02480 //// +112 //// 144033 033 035 006 01
050630 1709N 06905W 7855 02190 //// +126 //// 145033 034 036 005 01
050700 1709N 06908W 8125 01903 //// +143 //// 146033 033 037 006 01
050730 1710N 06910W 8392 01619 //// +159 //// 138030 030 038 006 01
050800 1710N 06912W 8439 01561 //// +160 //// 138029 030 039 007 01
050830 1711N 06913W 8425 01577 //// +159 //// 140030 030 039 006 01
050900 1711N 06915W 8428 01572 //// +159 //// 138030 030 036 007 05
050930 1712N 06917W 8428 01570 0110 +159 +029 137030 030 040 006 00
051000 1712N 06919W 8428 01569 0107 +157 +092 136030 030 039 007 00
051030 1712N 06921W 8433 01566 0113 +151 +096 137030 031 039 007 00
051100 1712N 06923W 8425 01574 0115 +148 +100 137031 031 039 008 00
051130 1712N 06925W 8425 01572 0115 +144 +103 135032 033 038 007 00
$$
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1207. centex
Quoting robj144:


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.
In my shaky opinion IMSO is never said.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, making fun of Jason... is like hearing people making fun of deaf people. I'm deaf, but I'm also proud of it. I've seen so many of my deaf friends being beaten up in schools and none of them are in public school anymore as a result. I standed up for myself and end up getting week of school suspenson. One of my deaf friend got mental disorder (if you touch him, he'll touch you back no matter what) and he was in public middle school when he was almost beaten to death by couple of football players. Now he's in some church school as result. Please, stop bullying Jason and just ignored him. End of discussion. Now let's see what recon plane is doing.
yes, good post.
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Quoting HydeandSeek:
I'm right there with you Bluestorm5...We DESPERATELY need the rain! I don't remember it ever being this dry on the coast. The crops are ruined. The corn and beans are a total bust! I enjoy a little brush with mother nature myself as long as things don't get out of hand...LOL! I've been in the direct path of Bertha, Fran, Floyd and Isabel so I have great respect (read TERROR) for the power of these storms. That said, a wimpy tropical storm would go a long way toward busting our drought.
yea, it's nothing but sands on the ground.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting weatherman12345:
link?


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, making fun of Jason... is like hearing people making fun of deaf people. I'm deaf, but I'm also proud of it. I've seen so many of my deaf friends being beaten up in schools and none of them are in public school anymore as a result. I standed up for myself and end up getting week of school suspenson. One of my deaf friend got mental disorder (if you touch him, he'll touch you back no matter what) and he was in public middle school when he was almost beaten to death by couple of football players. Now he's in some church school as result. Please, stop bullying Jason and just ignored him. End of discussion. Now let's see what recon plane is doing.


It was the end of the discussion until you chimed in. stop it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.


Ha, I think it could mean either one. ;)
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Quoting robj144:


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.
either one works, doesn't really matter lol

back to the tropics
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Wow... models shifted East i guess..
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1197. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TomTaylor:
For those unaware, it is very easy to ignore a user, even without the ignore button. I don't have a single user on my ignore list and yet somehow I manage to get along just fine with the hundreds of useless and/or obnoxious posts which fill up the blog everyday.

It's not rocket science...


simple but effective steps

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54805
Well, making fun of Jason... is like hearing people making fun of deaf people. I'm deaf, but I'm also proud of it. I've seen so many of my deaf friends being beaten up in schools and none of them are in public school anymore as a result. I standed up for myself and end up getting week of school suspenson. One of my deaf friend got mental disorder (if you touch him, he'll touch you back no matter what) and he was in public middle school when he was almost beaten to death by couple of football players. Now he's in some church school as result. Please, stop bullying Jason and just ignored him. End of discussion. Now let's see what recon plane is doing.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
1195. robj144
Quoting Hurricanes12:


IMO means in my opinion.
IMHO means in my honest opinion.


I always though IMHO was In My Humble Opinion.
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Tropical Storm Emily is moving very slow
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 260
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


In my opinon


Ah thanks!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
In the movie The Graduate the famous quote was" I have one word to tell you. Plastics". I have one word for you to consider for you future physicists. Gravity.

"Shaking hands? Well...that's not saying much for my wife is it?" LOL! Classic!
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00Z HWRF is back east somewhat bringing Emily through the Northern Bahamas by 60-72 hours.
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Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


IMO means in my opinion.
IMHO means in my honest opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


In my opinion. Boy, am I on late tonight.
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Thinking that the LLC is just south of Isla Beata, and moving West around 8kt...
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1187. robj144
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


I believe it's a technical meteorological term meaning "In My Opinion". :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>
IMO = In My Opinion.

Some similar ones...

JMO = Just My Opinion
IMHO = In My Honest Opinion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. wxhatt
Quoting HydeandSeek:
I'm right there with you Bluestorm5...We DESPERATELY need the rain! I don't remember it ever being this dry on the coast. The crops are ruined. The corn and beans are a total bust! I enjoy a little brush with mother nature myself as long as things don't get out of hand...LOL! I've been in the direct path of Bertha, Fran, Floyd and Isabel so I have great respect (read TERROR) for the power of these storms. That said, a wimpy tropical storm would go a long way toward busting our drought.


Do you remember Charlie? He went up Pamlico Sound.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Toddzing:
Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>


In my opinon
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Quoting JRRP:

really nice gusty winds in Santo Domingo Dominican Republic


ok, here in azua, we have rain without wind since 10:30 to now, i think this will going be worse with this thing down there....
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1181. emguy
Quoting MississippiWx:


Are the transparent barbs a location of bad data...reporting issues?
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I think the NHC will initialize watches or warnings for areas of Florida IF it (Florida) is still a threat, and Emily makes a passage across Haiti without dissipating (which isn't likely).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Either way, you should give him the benefit of the doubt and just ignore him.
For those unaware, it is very easy to ignore a user, even without the ignore button. I don't have a single user on my ignore list and yet somehow I manage to get along just fine with the hundreds of useless and/or obnoxious posts which fill up the blog everyday.

It's not rocket science...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I would love to hear your thoughts since you are studying this now. I suspect it has something to do with string, extra dimensions, and the 5th force.But yes this may not be the time, ......... BUT it's more interestng than these Jason debates.


Ooohhh...string theory, not my area of expertise. I do nuclear magnetic resonance, which is spectroscopy that doesn't requires much quantum mechanics, but not anything at that level of physics. I do have good familiarity with some of the erroneous concepts many laymen have about quantum mechanics. (For anyone wondering, you can't do a quantum dance to cure your cold.)

Unfortunately, at the rate I'm typing my blog post up, though, Emily will be past Hisponola by the time I finish :P. I have to check out now, but I'll try to finish it up tomorrow evening. Guess I'm not being a very good lurker, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. 7544
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Anyway.. MH09, Do you think the 06z and the 5 am cone will shift west? or will it stay at its current positon?






this might help

EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...
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Can someone tell me what IMO means? I see it referenced quite a bit here>
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Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
is she going north now?


no doesn't seem that way
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12318
1173. robj144
Quoting FrankZapper:
In the movie The Graduate the famous quote was" I have one word to tell you. Plastics". I have one word for you to consider for you future physicists. Gravity.


Ok... does that apply to current physicists as well?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No he doesn't.

*Back to topic*.


Anyway.. MH09, Do you think the 06z and the 5 am cone will shift west? or will it stay at its current positon?




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm right there with you Bluestorm5...We DESPERATELY need the rain! I don't remember it ever being this dry on the coast. The crops are ruined. The corn and beans are a total bust! I enjoy a little brush with mother nature myself as long as things don't get out of hand...LOL! I've been in the direct path of Bertha, Fran, Floyd and Isabel so I have great respect (read TERROR) for the power of these storms. That said, a wimpy tropical storm would go a long way toward busting our drought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hcubed:
Looks like the posters that were putting out their false models have been replaced with blank space.

Thanks, Admin...
empty space created

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54805
Feeding from ITCZ WV is making it healthy...

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Quoting QPhysFTW:


Minor, actually. I majored in math and chemistry, but near the end of my undergrad career I really gravitated (bad pun...sorry...) toward physics. Nothing to do with weather, really, but I've always held interest in the atmosphere as a hobby, and there's not much I love more than a big snowstorm.

Right now, I'm going into my second year of grad school, to make a living off of quantum mechanics. I like to think of my job as manipulating the nature of reality itself, although after a twelve hour shift in the lab it doesn't feel quite that glamorous :P
In the movie The Graduate the famous quote was" I have one word to tell you. Plastics". I have one word for you to consider for you future physicists. Gravity.
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Evening everybody

I see recon is heading back out


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1162. 7544
Quoting hunkerdown:
is a WOW in order ?!?!?


thought i repost for the night shift coming on


hunkerdown 12:46 AM EDT on August 04, 2011

+0













Quoting hurricane23:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1143 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POINT WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS HAS PUSHED
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL FORCE
INTO ALL OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL INTRODUCE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE ZONES
OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
CONE OF UNCERTAINLY HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST DUE TO THE
TRACK SHIFTING WEST WHICH NOW COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO AT
THIS TIME ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON EMILY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, AND THE LOCAL FORECAST FROM US FOR THIS WEEKEND, IN CASE
THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD.
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1161. centex
I'm thinking the cuban mountains will be the problem for this system.
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is she going north now?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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