Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

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All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.

Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.

This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.

Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast

Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.

Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.

Angela

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I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting muddertracker:
Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
lol
.
.
There's that wind again, blowing west!
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1258. emguy
Should note that Emily looks great on satellite, but the M.O. remains the same for another night...she is not stacked. The low level center is toward the western edge of convection and there is once again mid level vorticity to the east. In general, if you took a paper towel roll and angled it at 45 degrees, you might have a fair demonstration of Emily's circularion looks like as a rotating column in the atmosphere.
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1257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Recon found a weird pressure drop as they are still approaching the center. Pressure back on the rise as they are still headed for the center... Strange.


IDK... could have been passing through the MLC
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


06Z Models still Running?
They'll be in in about an hour.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I know this, i try to use the blog tools but he finds his way around that with new accounts, its not the fact that i find his post annoying, its just the fact that im scared for his well being. He is what you call a self destructive personality and he cant help himself.


We can try another aproach... one that would be beneficial
There are ways for those kind of personalities... Every day we encounter them, at work, within the family etc.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Heavy rain rate in that cell, most likely rain contaminated.


Yeah, I saw another observation with 56kt winds, also flagged for suspect data (likely rain contamination). I did notice a tiny pin dot area of -80C cloud tops in that general region... which would likely bring down some of those gusts
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a direct hit on jamaica looking real by each hour.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That, and flight level winds were lower than the SFMR readings. But nevertheless, they're finding some pretty good winds in the northeastern semicircle.


06Z Models still Running?
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Recon found a weird pressure drop as they are still approaching the center. Pressure back on the rise as they are still headed for the center... Strange.
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Quoting robj144:


First of all, the coriolis force is greatest at the poles, not at the equator, which is why storms do not and can not form near the equator. Second of all, the coriolis force is responsible for the initial spin-up, but the rest of the angular momentum comes from the storm itself. Third of all, if there is some loss of angular momentum from the Earth due to the storm initially, the coriolis force in the southern is the opposite direction, so theoretically they would mostly cancel each other out. Lastly, the mass of a storm is so small that the change in a day would be far less than a massive earth quake.


Aw, missed this earlier. A few things, then I'll really go to bed...I think.

The Coriolis force is not a momentum, it's, well, a force. In fact, it's a fictitious force, meaning that we only experience it because we're using the a reference frame affixed to the Earth, which rotates. But that aside, the force can be a mechanism through which angular momentum can transfer; indeed, for a hurricane that's spinning up with the Coriolis force acting in the way you describe exerts a torque on the air (kind of, although I'm sure the nonrigidity of the air comes into play in weird ways), which is the time derivative of the angular momentum vector. So, the storm starts spinning, and "gains" angular momentum with time. That's why I said the angular momentum of the storm is coupled to Earth's by the Coriolis force.

But this wouldn't be "cancelled" by the fact that air flows in opposite direction on the southern side of a storm versus the northern side. Angular momentum is (radius vector) cross (linear momentum vector), and as you look at each point in the storm, you find that the angular momentum adds constructively in all sectors. So I stand by what I say: unless the air is connected so a high pressure somewhere counterrotates faster or something, the Earth must (probably imperceptibly) change its rotation rate.

I look forward to being proven wrong when I check in tomorrow. Thanks for an enjoyable first night of non-lurking, all.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Could this thing make landfall in Greensboro, NC or get rain bands?

I am planning to arrive Greensboro, NC on Aug 8 at 4:30 PM? Should I be worried?


Check on the sixth or seventh. At this point no one can say anything for sure as to exactly where Emily will go.

Night all.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Heavy rain rate in that cell, most likely rain contaminated.
That, and flight level winds were lower than the SFMR readings. But nevertheless, they're finding some pretty good winds in the northeastern semicircle.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Could this thing make landfall in Greensboro, NC or get rain bands?

I am planning to arrive Greensboro, NC on Aug 8 at 4:30 PM? Should I be worried?
no, you shouldn't get any rain. Greensboro is 300 miles inland, so it's not even close.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7443
1245. nigel20
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Great satellite pic... looks to be forming convection on the north and south sides of the center (perhaps NW and SW)... that is where I believe the center to be.

Yes, Emily is looking pretty good.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
wunderkid you still here?


yep still here boy I tell you that coffee is doin very very good for me
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Could this thing make landfall in Greensboro, NC or get rain bands?

I am planning to arrive Greensboro, NC on Aug 8 at 4:30 PM? Should I be worried?
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1241. JRRP
Quoting lordhuracan01:


ok, here in azua, we have rain without wind since 10:30 to now, i think this will going be worse with this thing down there....

amigo... aqui el viento esta pitaando...
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Headed for the center...

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uhhh...

051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00
Heavy rain rate in that cell, most likely rain contaminated.
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Quoting nigel20:


Great satellite pic... looks to be forming convection on the north and south sides of the center (perhaps NW and SW)... that is where I believe the center to be.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uhhh...

051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00

sorry for the newbie question but what does that mean?
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Still got people trying to forecast models on here...

The pattern isn't going to support anything digging too deep into Florida. A brief landfall in South Florida/skirting along the coast solution is possible, if not staying completely out to sea.

Everything changes though if Emily opens up into a wave. At that point, it's a moot point as it won't be anything significant.
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wunderkid you still here?
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1233. 7544
wow
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Uhhh...

051730 1712N 06948W 8415 01586 0131 +121 +102 122036 042 054 032 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
IMOFO
= its my own freaking opinion
LOL
JUST ADDING MY TIDBIT
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1227. nigel20
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Quoting Seawall:
Looking at the imagery, and just not seeing that North turn yet.. might be me, but still seeing West; maybe slightly north of West, but no definite turn yet.


Still not much movement at all. Just a drift here or there for now.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
MH09, do you think models will shift east?

This entire model dilemma is so confusing.
I don't think they'll shift in any direction to be honest...they're pretty good where they are.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting muddertracker:
Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
can't wait be a whole lot quieter and civil then till 3pm until 11pm
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Quoting hurricane23:


New it...GFS/Nogaps were already trending eastward. A more poleward movement appears likely in my view as it now more verically aligned.

Have a great night
That seems to be the consensus. Btw almost all the dynamic models so far seem tightly clustered on this solution with the aid of the Gulfstream flight data.
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1221. robj144
Quoting hunkerdown:
IMHO is usually "in my humble opinion"


See, I was right. :)
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She only comes out at night...
the lean and hungry type...


Nice Dmax spread. Some new convection on the NW quad sugests some motion...in that direction... but there must have been a center reformation during the afternoon. CMC 00Z global shunts the vorticity well to the N and ofshore while tracking a sfc low across central cuba N into south Fl then offshore to the NE. All this to say that there isn't yet a model solution to believe.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
00Z HWRF is back east somewhat bringing Emily through the Northern Bahamas by 60-72 hours.


New it...GFS/Nogaps were already trending eastward. A more poleward movement appears likely in my view as its now more verically aligned.

Have a great night
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Quoting TomTaylor:
IMO = In My Opinion.

Some similar ones...

JMO = Just My Opinion
IMHO = In My Honest Opinion
IMHO is usually "in my humble opinion"
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1216. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Ooohhh...string theory, not my area of expertise. I do nuclear magnetic resonance, which is spectroscopy that doesn't requires much quantum mechanics, but not anything at that level of physics. I do have good familiarity with some of the erroneous concepts many laymen have about quantum mechanics. (For anyone wondering, you can't do a quantum dance to cure your cold.)

Unfortunately, at the rate I'm typing my blog post up, though, Emily will be past Hisponola by the time I finish :P. I have to check out now, but I'll try to finish it up tomorrow evening. Guess I'm not being a very good lurker, lol.


The non-physicists are sometimes exposed this as it has medical applications - the MRI which magnetic resonance imaging. They took out the "nuclear" part so it doesn't sound that scary, which I think is funny.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes, I'm pretty sure he does. Taz does too.

Either way, you should give him the benefit of the doubt and just ignore him.

Yes he does have problems, I agree and this blog is probably the only true focus he has and it does not hurt anyone. Also, A LOT of the annoying posts in the past few days ...maybe a week were NOT from Jason...some were...but someone is pretending to be Jason on this blog...IT IS OBVIOUS...and is TRULY trying to get Jason off of this blog and it is working. Jason has a clone ...lol..that is working hard to make him look bad. BUT remember the blog is therapeutic and I for one commend him...for continuing to try to fit in...he might have "problems" however he is VERY intelligent and this blog is his way to socialize, for individuals with his condition have serious problems with socialization.

Asperger syndrome or Asperger's syndrome or Asperger disorder ( /ˈɑspərɡərz/[1] or /ˈæspərɡərz/[2]) is an autism spectrum disorder that is characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction, along with restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests.

Also I hope anyone in the path of Emily...wherever that may be...is fully aware and has taken precautions.
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1213. Seawall
Looking at the imagery, and just not seeing that North turn yet.. might be me, but still seeing West; maybe slightly north of West, but no definite turn yet.
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Quoting robj144:


Ok... does that apply to current physicists as well?
Absolutely.
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MH09, do you think models will shift east?

This entire model dilemma is so confusing.
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Read:

Only a few more days until school starts.

Repeat, as needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.