Tropical Storm Emily stalls, remains a threat to Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2011

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All afternoon, Tropical Storm Emily has remained on a westward track with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. In the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm was nearly stationary, with no forward movement. The storm gained some thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation throughout the day, but remains sheared to the east. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Emily continues to be tilted east due to 20 knots of westerly wind shear, which is apparent on satellite and also in recent satellite analysis of upper-level circulation.

Emily's tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm conditions are probably already being felt in Hispaniola. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches are expected on the eastern side of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west before making a turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the heavier rainfall amounts. In any case, Emily is a serious threat for flash flooding and mudslides on the island of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The forecast for Emily remains similar to this morning's update, with a slight shift to the east in track. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the storm will make landfall in Haiti overnight tonight or early tomorrow as a tropical storm. After that, it will continue on a track to the northwest until Saturday, when it will turn to the northeast and out to sea. This is all assuming Emily makes the turn to the northwest over the next 12 hours.

This afternoon the HWRF and GFDL shifted their forecast track slightly to the east away from the Florida coast. Consensus shifted this way as well, and that change is also present in the official forecast track. As the storm moves north of Hispaniola and Cuba, environmental conditions will become more favorable, and the storm could gain some organization. But this is very hard to predict since Emily hasn't actually made a turn to the northwest, yet. Furthermore, the longer Emily tracks to the west, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coast.

Typhoon Muifa a landfall threat for China coast

Typhoon Muifa has sustained winds of 109 mph, with gusts up to 132 mph, and is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Muifa's concentric eyewalls are plainly visible on both infrared satellite imagery as well as radar, which is indicative of a mature, intense cyclone undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. Typhoon Muifa is expected to remain a category 2 with winds of at least 104 mph through mid-day Saturday, at which point it is forecast to intensify slightly to a category 3 as it approaches the China coast. As of this afternoon, Muifa is expected to make landfall south of Shanghai, near Zhoushan, Saturday afternoon or evening (local time). In addition to being a serious threat to all of the involved coastal cities, this is a particularly dangerous track for Shanghai and Hangzhou, since near-hurricane-strength winds will be out of the east, pushing water into the surrounding inlets. The forecast landfall location has been trending south along the coast, so it doesn't appear that China will be able to escape a Muifa landfall.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from August 3rd.

Dr. Carver will have an update later tonight should there be any interesting changes to Emily or the forecast. I'll be back tomorrow with another post.

Angela

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2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 4
Location: 17.1°N 71.3°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Wind shifts I'm seeing would suggest either this is messy again or recon missed the center...
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Bedtime.... Good night...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting TomTaylor:
Recon SFMR has found winds which would support a 65 MPH TS.

Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 70.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,547 meters (~ 5,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 105° at 23 knots (From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (~ 54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)<br>SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 50 mm/hr (~ 1.97 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



Some other SFMR reports support a 70MPH TS, but those are contaminated.


Despite these SFMR surface wind reports, flight level winds have yet to rise above 50MPH. Therefore, one would have to wonder just how accurate the SFMR is.


But look at the 1009 mb pressure, something does not compute.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 040556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY SPREADING INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

Still moving W!
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Quoting Derlong54:
¿Adónde es que está pitando el viento?


Santo domingo and translate the spanish...
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1303. sarepa
I live in Santo Domingo. What I don't get is, if there is so much cloud coverage on the Satellite over us, why isen't it raining? It's just cloudy over here.
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whose got the 2 am advisory?
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Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
which way is she headin


Hard to know without a center fix.
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1300. GetReal
Based on the data coming in so far from recon, the center of Emily is not directly under the heaviest convection. The center is also moving, and is to the west, or wnw of the previous position.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
give me that link will ya!


Link

And tons of more links to all kinds of great sites here like satellite imagery, radars, computer models, etc.
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Quoting robj144:


For clockwise rotations, r cross v is into the plane, for counter-clockwise rotations r cross v is out of the plane, so what is it that your saying?


Yes, but the rotation about a storm is all counterclockwise (NH). So I guess I'm saying that the Earth needn't rotate at a different rate if there's a high pressure that suffers an increase of clockwise swirling air that might counterbalances the net magnitude increase of L pointing into the Earth's surface by the storm. But that's only one stab at a mechanism.

But again, there's a whole host of simplifications I guess I'm making too. Like applying rigid body mechanics to fluids. Still, angular momentum is always conserved, and I'm curious as to how that exactly comes about. But I feel safe in saying that it CANNOT cancel out within the storm itself.

I, too, find it amusing that they chopped the 'N' off of 'NMRI'. But then it makes me a little sad, because then I consider the state of science literacy in this country...
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1297. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:


Estas al Sur de RD?

Live in the S?

exactamente en Santo Domingo
ha calmado un poco la brisa
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Quoting reedzone:
I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.


Lets see if theres any vortex left after its encounter with DR/cuba. Even if it gives sfl a close shave most of the real weather with this tropical cyclone is to the north and east so not much across the mainland.
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which way is she headin
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Will this continue to move west in the next 12 hours?
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Recon SFMR has found winds which would support a 65 MPH TS.

Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 70.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,547 meters (~ 5,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 105° at 23 knots (From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (~ 54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 50 mm/hr (~ 1.97 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



Some other SFMR reports support a 70MPH TS, but those are contaminated.


Despite these SFMR surface wind reports, flight level winds have yet to rise above 50MPH. Therefore, one would have to wonder just how accurate the SFMR is.
Look at the rain rates and you'll know why ;~)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


And I'm definitely joking. I respect your opinion and I agree with it on Emily.

Edit: However, I'm just a tad further east than you with Emily.


I don't disagree with that, it may very well stay off the coastline. I just don't agree with a straight poleward motion as Adrian is pushing.. Sorry, not in August.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
000
URNT15 KNHC 040551
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 13 20110804
054200 1658N 07114W 8396 01577 //// +119 //// 031013 017 /// /// 05
054230 1658N 07115W 8387 01602 0091 +159 +144 278005 015 /// /// 03
054300 1657N 07117W 8442 01539 0076 +178 +145 241018 020 043 016 03
054330 1655N 07118W 8442 01544 0080 +172 +148 243015 015 032 008 00
054400 1654N 07119W 8428 01559 0077 +180 +152 233013 013 021 003 00
054430 1653N 07120W 8428 01555 0070 +181 +156 218013 013 017 004 00
054500 1652N 07122W 8430 01551 0067 +180 +161 219016 017 022 004 00
054530 1651N 07123W 8427 01551 0064 +179 +165 219018 019 025 005 03
054600 1650N 07124W 8429 01546 0063 +177 +169 230020 020 026 005 00
054630 1648N 07124W 8426 01547 0059 +182 +171 235020 021 028 006 00
054700 1647N 07125W 8428 01547 0069 +169 //// 237020 022 028 003 05
054730 1646N 07126W 8426 01547 0062 +177 +173 240021 022 030 003 00
054800 1645N 07127W 8431 01545 0070 +167 //// 243020 021 026 006 01
054830 1644N 07129W 8428 01547 0061 +182 +172 248020 020 024 001 00
054900 1644N 07130W 8430 01547 0061 +181 +172 265018 019 025 002 00
054930 1642N 07131W 8426 01552 0062 +182 +173 272017 019 024 000 00
055000 1641N 07132W 8430 01547 0062 +180 +176 270020 020 022 001 00
055030 1640N 07133W 8429 01550 0063 +180 +178 274019 020 022 000 00
055100 1639N 07135W 8433 01547 0065 +177 //// 279019 021 024 000 01
055130 1638N 07136W 8434 01546 0073 +166 //// 275021 023 028 005 01
$$
;
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Quoting tropicalweather2011:
maybe tropical storm Emily maybe have winds over 60 mph


I dont think so.
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Recon SFMR has found winds which would support a 65 MPH TS.

Time: 05:35:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 70.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,547 meters (~ 5,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 105° at 23 knots (From the ESE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (~ 54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 50 mm/hr (~ 1.97 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



Some other SFMR reports support a 70MPH TS, but those are contaminated.


Despite these SFMR surface wind reports, flight level winds have yet to rise above 50MPH. Therefore, one would have to wonder just how accurate the SFMR is.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Recon is measuring some crazy intense rainfall rates as they approach the center. Some very strong convection firing right now. One reading was 3.23 in/hour. wow!
give me that link will ya!
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¿Adónde es que está pitando el viento?
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Recon is measuring some crazy intense rainfall rates as they approach the center. Some very strong convection firing right now. One reading was 3.23 in/hour. wow!
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Quoting reedzone:


Great idea!! :)


And I'm definitely joking. I respect your opinion and I agree with it on Emily.

Edit: However, I'm just a tad further east than you with Emily.
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ADT raw T's up to 3.6
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Quoting weatherganny:


He may not like direct communication, and it may be important for him to think he has friends on the blog, idk, however I think we as human beings need to be open to his personality and maybe just take notice if we think "maybe " it is not him posting something. I really do not have the answer but something is not right. I do know it can be aggravating too though, for those trying to analyze the latest developments in the tropics.


We've never had problems with Jason until this year. I agree that someone is posing as him and trying to make him look worse. It's most likely the same person who poses as JFV.
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Quoting reedzone:


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.
If you're talking about who I think you are, yes he does have a degree.
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1279. Seawall
After all of that, which direction is Emily going now?
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Quoting billsfaninsofla:



You meant a weaker storm would go farther west, not east. I think.
I meant like if this is stronger than the initialization then it would go farther east than the models currently depict. Sorry, I guess I wasn't very clear.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, he's the out to sea pusher, you're the landfall pusher. I'm going to go right in the middle with the consensus. :-P


Great idea!! :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Wow these thunderstorms must have intense updrafts and downdrafts, pressure and wind direction hopping around.
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Emily lookin a little scarier...
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Quoting reedzone:


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.
I'm not sure if he does or not, I know he does do some work over at TAFB, or at least he used to.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If the models initialized this too weak, then it would only go farther east... A more intact storm would go farther east. The models are showing a weaker storm or open trough moving on the western side of the cone.



You meant a weaker storm would go farther west, not east. I think.
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Quoting reedzone:


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.


Well, he's the out to sea pusher, you're the landfall pusher. I'm going to go right in the middle with the consensus. :-P
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe WU bloggers need to talk to him as a human. I tried it late last PM and it went well until I asked him if there were impostors. He abruptly cut off the conversation, which POd me cause I was trying to help him set the record straight. Go figure.


He may not like direct communication, and it may be important for him to think he has friends on the blog, idk, however I think we as human beings need to be open to his personality and maybe just take notice if we think "maybe " it is not him posting something. I really do not have the answer but something is not right. I do know it can be aggravating too though, for those trying to analyze the latest developments in the tropics.
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no no no no east cant travel against steering currents that would be one of the wierdest things or even feaky for me to see.
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1269. emguy
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but the 500mb vort is a lot closer than it has been. Also the low level center is fully embedded within the convection this time, as opposed to last night when it was only half-way covered.


I think ya got a valid statement right there...
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1268. Seawall
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I dont want to get banned... Link


Anyway.... Emily is moving WNW


Well, I'm sure I'm behind now, haven't refreshed the blog, but that painful video took several minutes. It is clear that this young man needs help. It is NOT clear to me that he has Asburgers, I think it is worse.
What is clear to me is that he doesn't need to be on here giving advice that people might heed; that's not his job; however, I agree now with you that he needs help. He needs supervision, he needs someone with him at all times, and I Hope and Pray that Jason gets the help he needs. I hope no one here, including myself, has added to his mental state. He really needs help.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If the models initialized this too weak, then it would only go farther east... A more intact storm would go farther east. The models are showing a weaker storm or open trough moving on the western side of the cone.


It's like I said, I respect him.. I rarely agree with him, he's normally the out to sea pusher when it comes to storms, but one can see why. Nobody wants a Hurricane, well at least normal people don't want a Hurricane :P

Especially when he has a degree in MET, which he does I think.. He's a good poster on here.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting JRRP:

amigo... aqui el viento esta pitaando...


Estas al Sur de RD?

Live in the S?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


DISCLAIMER ... THESE DATA ARE PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. THEY REQUIRE INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
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1264. robj144
Quoting QPhysFTW:


Aw, missed this earlier. A few things, then I'll really go to bed...I think.

The Coriolis force is not a momentum, it's, well, a force. In fact, it's a fictitious force, meaning that we only experience it because we're using the a reference frame affixed to the Earth, which rotates. But that aside, the force can be a mechanism through which angular momentum can transfer; indeed, for a hurricane that's spinning up with the Coriolis force acting in the way you describe exerts a torque on the air (kind of, although I'm sure the nonrigidity of the air comes into play in weird ways), which is the time derivative of the angular momentum vector. So, the storm starts spinning, and "gains" angular momentum with time. That's why I said the angular momentum of the storm is coupled to Earth's by the Coriolis force.

But this wouldn't be "cancelled" by the fact that air flows in opposite direction on the southern side of a storm versus the northern side. Angular momentum is (radius vector) cross (linear momentum vector), and as you look at each point in the storm, you find that the angular momentum adds constructively in all sectors. So I stand by what I say: unless the air is connected so a high pressure somewhere counterrotates faster or something, the Earth must (probably imperceptibly) change its rotation rate.

I look forward to being proven wrong when I check in tomorrow. Thanks for an enjoyable first night of non-lurking, all.


For clockwise rotations, r cross v is into the plane, for counter-clockwise rotations r cross v is out of the plane, so what is it that your saying?
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Quoting reedzone:
I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.
If the models initialized this too weak, then it would only go farther east... A more intact storm would go farther east. The models are showing a weaker storm or open trough moving on the western side of the cone.
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Quoting emguy:
Should note that Emily looks great on satellite, but the M.O. remains the same for another night...she is not stacked. The low level center is toward the western edge of convection and there is once again mid level vorticity to the east. In general, if you took a paper towel roll and angled it at 45 degrees, you might have a fair demonstration of Emily's circularion looks like as a rotating column in the atmosphere.


Yeah, but the 500mb vort is a lot closer than it has been. Also the low level center is fully embedded within the convection this time, as opposed to last night when it was only half-way covered.
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Quoting weatherganny:

Yes he does have problems, I agree and this blog is probably the only true focus he has and it does not hurt anyone. Also, A LOT of the annoying posts in the past few days ...maybe a week were NOT from Jason...some were...but someone is pretending to be Jason on this blog...IT IS OBVIOUS...and is TRULY trying to get Jason off of this blog and it is working. Jason has a clone ...lol..that is working hard to make him look bad. BUT remember the blog is therapeutic and I for one commend him...for continuing to try to fit in...he might have "problems" however he is VERY intelligent and this blog is his way to socialize, for individuals with his condition have serious problems with socialization.

Asperger syndrome or Asperger's syndrome or Asperger disorder ( /ˈɑspərɡərz/[1] or /ˈæspərɡərz/[2]) is an autism spectrum disorder that is characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction, along with restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests.

Also I hope anyone in the path of Emily...wherever that may be...is fully aware and has taken precautions.
Maybe WU bloggers need to talk to him as a human. I tried it late last PM and it went well until I asked him if there were impostors. He abruptly cut off the conversation, which POd me cause I was trying to help him set the record straight. Go figure.
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I disagree with Adrian, sorry.. I respect him but he's been pushing this east east east for a while. It's not happening. First off, the models initialized Emily too weak. I think he's gonna be shocked after we see Emily graze Southeastern Florida come Saturday. It's just not gonna shoot north like what he's saying. Again, I respect him, but disagree on his theory with Emily. I see a few others agree that this will come further west, but not too far west. Perhaps a brief landfall in South Florida.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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