High wind shear disrupts Emily as it approaches Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011

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In defiance to its forecast, Tropical Storm Emily continues to move due west this morning, and we wonder just how far west it will get before turning toward Hispaniola. Recent Hurricane Hunter missions have shown that Emily is still very poorly organized, and although the center of circulation is plainly obvious on satellite imagery, it's only because it is so displaced from the thunderstorm activity. Wind shear around the storm is just high enough, around 20 knots out of the west, to push the upper levels of circulation and thunderstorm activity to the east, exposing the surface low. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Right now, Emily is tilting to the east. This is bad news for the organization of the storm, and something that Emily will have to work hard at recovering from. In addition to the wind shear, dry air continues to wrap around the north and west of the storm. This isn't as critical as unfavorable wind shear, but it's not helping to create new thunderstorm activity. The strongest winds of 50 mph were found to the north and east of the center this morning, and Emily is not expected to intensify before making landfall in Hispaniola, which is forecast for tonight. The HWRF is forecasting the strongest precipitation to fall on the northeast side of the storm as is passes over Hispaniola. This is relatively good news for Haiti, but the country could still receive up to 5 inches of rain, and since the models have been trending the track west over the past couple of runs, it's something to watch closely. No matter the scenario, Emily is expected to produce heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which are all to common on the mountainous island.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation accumulation from the HWRF high resolution model's 6Z (2am EDT) run. The color contour scale is in inches. The coastlines are a thin, red line. The Dominican Republic is expected to get the most rain out of Emily. You can view the HWRF model runs on Wundermap.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The future of Emily remains uncertain, and even the National Hurricane Center is using the "if" word when forecasting Emily's track after crossing Hispaniola. "If" it makes it north of Hispaniola. Over the past couple of runs, the models have been trending their forecast tracks back to the west, most likely because Emily has remained on a westward track longer than expected. This is expected—the longer Emily remains shallow and unorganized, the longer it will track west. It will need to build up taller in the atmosphere to be influenced by the steering winds that can push it north. Given its westward track, today's models are likely closer to reality than what we've seen in the past couple of days. This morning, the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models send Emily on a northwest track to Florida. This is a change from the past couple of days for the HWRF, but the CMC and UKMET have consistently been the western boundary of model consensus. THE GFDL has also taken a huge swing to the west, and now suggests it will come very close to a southeast Florida landfall. The ECMWF and GFS continue to forecast that Emily will take a harder turn north through the Bahamas, not reaching the Florida coast.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily at 11:15am EDT. The surface circulation is visible to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity.

Consensus of the models falls between the HWRF/GFDL solution and the ECMWF/GFS solution, and the National Hurricane Center continues to use the consensus for the official track forecast, which calls for Emily to take a turn to the northwest and make landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon, after which continuing northwest until Saturday morning when it's between the island of Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, they expect the storm to jog north and then northeast.

Emily's intensity forecast continues highly dependent on the track it takes. Assuming it can survive the wrath of Hispaniola, Emily will enter slightly more favorable environmental conditions to the north of the islands. This is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting, although they remain cautious. There is a very good chance that, if Emily does turn northwest today, it will not be able to reorganize after crossing Hispaniola. If it does maintain organization, Emily could reach hurricane strength as it moves northeast out to the open Atlantic. The other scenario at this point is that the storm keeps moving west, which will be detrimental to its orgnization. The models that track Emily into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico don't suggest any reintensification—the CMC fizzles the system below tropical storm strength quickly, probably because of the long track over Cuba it would have to take. In any case, Emily remains a threat most certainly to Hispaniola, and potentially to Florida.

I'm planning a quick update later this afternoon/evening for an update on new model runs, and potential Hispaniola landfall.

Angela

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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


what's 270 degrees? I have forgotten is that west or wnw or nw? I am sorry for all the questions.

sheri


Due west. Just think of a full 360 degree turn. What is a 90 degree angle? If you start at 0 degrees and go to 90 degrees (clock-wise), it's due East. Obviously 0 degrees is due North. 180 degrees is due South, while 270 degrees is due West.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


what's 270 degrees? I have forgotten is that west or wnw or nw? I am sorry for all the questions.

sheri
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Quoting angiest:


Looks about 0.03 degrees north of the previous. Assuming it is the same center they reported on last time, it is a bit north of due west. (0.08 west of previous).


Between 270 and 275 by the looks of it. Certainly due West. There is a weakness in the steering flow to the NW over Fla. but I dont know whether a sheared system like Emily will feel enough of that to pull up before the trough lifts out. The models persist in the change in track off to the WNW and then NW but models can be stubborn until the storm blows far enough by the points to result in a change of significane in the various runs.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Family in DR said the metro (subway/train) is closed down today, banks and other businesses are closed. To me thats a little too much for a tropical storm but i do understand the dangers that come from their terrible drainage system.


you're right I'm here in Santo Domingo,(with three drops always have street flooding).
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not yet, but if and when watches get issued for our area you best believe they'll send the entire News Team to every Wal-Mart, Publix, and Home Depot in all of south Florida.

Roger That!
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Quoting Run4AWAY:


In the middle of the page there is a link for graphics archive. Just under the header for the storm name.
Chad
Thanks !
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Drak, Levi, do you guys think that wave off Africa could be our first Cape Verde storm of the season?

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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


what's 270 degrees? I have forgotten is that west or wnw or nw? I am sorry for all the questions.

sheri


that's west... everything moves in 90 degree increments... 90 east, 180 south, 270 west.
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Quoting RescueAFR:

Can't wait to see if Channel 7 starts 24 hour coverage..
Not yet, but if and when watches get issued for our area you best believe they'll send the entire News Team to every Wal-Mart, Publix, and Home Depot in all of south Florida.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
860. beell
Most recent outbound (north) leg from the center fix of the Air Force recon flying along on a static pressure surface of around 842mb. A 42 meter height increase at the same pressure level from near the last center fix to the north of the center before turning west.

A distance of about 60nm. Pretty decent increase. If there is a weakness to the north of Emily at this level recon is not finding it.

Over a
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Here's an image for all to enjoy...



That is not the face from the orginal picture What happened to him?
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Quoting RescueAFR:

Can't wait to see if Channel 7 starts 24 hour coverage..


Oh noooo....I can't stand the voice of the HEAD weather dude (nasally like) ... will NOT be watching that channel :)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


If I'm reading that map right, it looks like the weakness shifted west to over Florida...is that correct?
Just to the east of Florida.
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Quoting Grothar:
Everybody have their F5 keys ready?


No, most of ours broke a couple of days ago.

xD
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Quoting RescueAFR:
Interesting the process begins..
Miami-Dade County Advises Residents To Be Ready
Miami-Dade County released information Wednesday advising residents to be ready in case Tropical Storm Emily hits the area. The Department of Emergency Management is monitoring the storm.

Miami-Dade residents can call the Answer Center at 311 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Friday and Saturday 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.

I was wondering.
On the way home,Saw alot of tree trimming and a big oil truck pulling into the cop shop
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting WxLogic:
Steering Updated:



If I'm reading that map right, it looks like the weakness shifted west to over Florida...is that correct?
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Everybody have their F5 keys ready?
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Quoting kmanislander:


Heading 270 degrees ?


what's 270 degrees? I have forgotten is that west or wnw or nw? I am sorry for all the questions.

sheri
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Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like Emily is preparing to move off towards the WNW, hitting the wall in the low level steering, so to speak.


It's probably a combination of her being tugged underneath the convection and the steering beginning to change. With the weakness to the NW, she is bound to start turning soon.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting kmanislander:


Heading 270 degrees ?


Looks about 0.03 degrees north of the previous. Assuming it is the same center they reported on last time, it is a bit north of due west. (0.08 west of previous).
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
The low level circulation is still exposed along with the eye on the visible satellite, moving more or less due west passing by Hispaniola and apparently Haiti as well. Looks like Emily has other plans as she sneaks under the radar so to speak...LOL

My thermometer reads 115 degrees here near Waco, Tx at 330pm CDT. Lots of dust devils spinning up this past week- I suppose due to the intense heat?

Reminds me of west Texas out towards ElPaso. Perhaps we are seeing the beginnings of a new desert here in central Texas? What will these big cities do here along I35 when the water runs out???
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Steering Updated:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Grothar,Just wanted to let cha know you have people lurking in the back ground and we enjoy the images. Just I try not to talk to much cause especially lately I have asked a few questions and they NEVER get answered. the other day Tig did answer some of them. But I am glad to see alot of the regulars are back. When I first got back on some names didn't reconize. Glad to see Kman to.
What's ur take on Emily?
Hey, sheri!!! I thought I saw you in here yesterday.... the blog is the blog... still too many plle rowing about who should post what... how things w/ u?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Looks like Emily is preparing to move off towards the WNW, hitting the wall in the low level steering, so to speak.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And so it begins. Get ready for the news hyping it up to the max, lol.

Can't wait to see if Channel 7 starts 24 hour coverage..
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levi can we get ur take on the current situation
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A big thanks to the blogger that posted the link to the TC Track Model Guidance video from Colorado State. Here's the link to all of the instructional videos they have. I watched the Track Model Guidance, and it was extremely informative.
Link
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Quoting Skyepony:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center


Heading 270 degrees ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting BahaHurican:
So then the question is, not either, but both. Is it just the Bahamas, or FL too? Makes it clear what you really mean...

[I need to go find an old English teacher of mine and APOLOGIZE.... always used to tell us "say what you mean; pple can't read your mind". Now I appreciate how frustrated she must have felt.... lol]

Ah.... did find it unusual for them to stage from here... but, they dropped the 'sonde OVER Nassau???? [looks around] Wait... what's that whizzing sound I he-


lol



You missed your chance to catch one.... tomorrow will be further north
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Quoting marknmelb:


My monitor just died ... :(


then how do you know what you posted can be seen?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And so it begins. Get ready for the news hyping it up to the max, lol.


Sweet....where's Bryan Norcross??
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I looks on Visible that it is starting to move NW or is it a wobble?
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center

Emily appears from recon data to be moving about 275degrees or just a tad N due of west!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting patrikdude2:
Thank you! but I still can't find the old forecast "CONE" graphic. I see all the archived text but not the forecast cone graphic. o_O


In the middle of the page there is a link for graphics archive. Just under the header for the storm name.
Chad
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Quoting RescueAFR:
Interesting the process begins..
Miami-Dade County Advises Residents To Be Ready
Miami-Dade County released information Wednesday advising residents to be ready in case Tropical Storm Emily hits the area. The Department of Emergency Management is monitoring the storm.

Miami-Dade residents can call the Answer Center at 311 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Friday and Saturday 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.
And so it begins. Get ready for the news hyping it up to the max, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Grothar,Just wanted to let cha know you have people lurking in the back ground and we enjoy the images. Just I try not to talk to much cause especially lately I have asked a few questions and they NEVER get answered. the other day Tig did answer some of them. But I am glad to see alot of the regulars are back. When I first got back on some names didn't reconize. Glad to see Kman to.
What's ur take on Emily?


Thank you. But I was just teasing. I say things like that, but most people know I am only kidding. Being married for so long, I am used to people not answering me. You should blog more. I can send you some link if you would like. I know some people don't like to share, but I don't mind.
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Interesting the process begins..
Miami-Dade County Advises Residents To Be Ready
Miami-Dade County released information Wednesday advising residents to be ready in case Tropical Storm Emily hits the area. The Department of Emergency Management is monitoring the storm.

Miami-Dade residents can call the Answer Center at 311 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Friday and Saturday 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.
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More clustering on FL again...
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Here's an image for all to enjoy...


thats nasty
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Here's an image for all to enjoy...



My monitor just died ... :(
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828. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center
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Will be interesting to see the 4pm cst NHC update
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Here's an image for all to enjoy...

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
In a past hour, TS Emily had moved 7 miles it look like from recon.
Think of all of the water that is being shunted north into the southern coast at this time. Most of the capital is built along "El Malecón," a long walkway that runs along the shore... I've seen many a storm push huge swells over the wall and into the streets there.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So then the question is, not either, but both. Is it just the Bahamas, or FL too? Makes it clear what you really mean...

[I need to go find an old English teacher of mine and APOLOGIZE.... always used to tell us "say what you mean; pple can't read your mind". Now I appreciate how frustrated she must have felt.... lol]

Ah.... did find it unusual for them to stage from here... but, they dropped the 'sonde OVER Nassau???? [looks around] Wait... what's that whizzing sound I he-


lol



I know, I was just messin' with ya. I think, in this case, it will probably be both. Since it seems she may not go over the higher mountains of Hispanola, she should be able to maintain and get into an area more favorable for development. Of course, that all depends on when she makes the more northwesterly turn that we've all been waiting for but have not seen.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1003mb again. Dropped in the eye.

000
UZNT13 KNHC 032015
XXAA 53208 99169 70705 04460 99003 27613 11502 00026 27612 11002
92716 23607 16507 85455 19856 08510 88999 77999
31313 09608 81954
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1687N07047W 1956 MBL WND 14004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
005 002843 WL150 11003 083 REL 1687N07047W 195437 SPG 1687N07047W
195622 =
XXBB 53208 99169 70705 04460 00003 27613 11864 20808 22850 19856
33843 19061
21212 00003 11502 11927 17007 22902 11004 33858 08509 44843 08512
31313 09608 81954
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1687N07047W 1956 MBL WND 14004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
005 002843 WL150 11003 083 REL 1687N07047W 195437 SPG 1687N07047W
195622 =
;



Center of Circulation, not eye. :P
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Meaning to be rude, do you really have to ask that question in an open blog. Respect other's feelings.



+ 100 - Anyone that would make a comment like that "not intending to be rude" must have a learning disorder
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1003mb again on the sonde. Dropped in the eye.

000
UZNT13 KNHC 032015
XXAA 53208 99169 70705 04460 99003 27613 11502 00026 27612 11002
92716 23607 16507 85455 19856 08510 88999 77999
31313 09608 81954
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1687N07047W 1956 MBL WND 14004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
005 002843 WL150 11003 083 REL 1687N07047W 195437 SPG 1687N07047W
195622 =
XXBB 53208 99169 70705 04460 00003 27613 11864 20808 22850 19856
33843 19061
21212 00003 11502 11927 17007 22902 11004 33858 08509 44843 08512
31313 09608 81954
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1687N07047W 1956 MBL WND 14004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
005 002843 WL150 11003 083 REL 1687N07047W 195437 SPG 1687N07047W
195622 =
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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