High wind shear disrupts Emily as it approaches Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011

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In defiance to its forecast, Tropical Storm Emily continues to move due west this morning, and we wonder just how far west it will get before turning toward Hispaniola. Recent Hurricane Hunter missions have shown that Emily is still very poorly organized, and although the center of circulation is plainly obvious on satellite imagery, it's only because it is so displaced from the thunderstorm activity. Wind shear around the storm is just high enough, around 20 knots out of the west, to push the upper levels of circulation and thunderstorm activity to the east, exposing the surface low. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Right now, Emily is tilting to the east. This is bad news for the organization of the storm, and something that Emily will have to work hard at recovering from. In addition to the wind shear, dry air continues to wrap around the north and west of the storm. This isn't as critical as unfavorable wind shear, but it's not helping to create new thunderstorm activity. The strongest winds of 50 mph were found to the north and east of the center this morning, and Emily is not expected to intensify before making landfall in Hispaniola, which is forecast for tonight. The HWRF is forecasting the strongest precipitation to fall on the northeast side of the storm as is passes over Hispaniola. This is relatively good news for Haiti, but the country could still receive up to 5 inches of rain, and since the models have been trending the track west over the past couple of runs, it's something to watch closely. No matter the scenario, Emily is expected to produce heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which are all to common on the mountainous island.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation accumulation from the HWRF high resolution model's 6Z (2am EDT) run. The color contour scale is in inches. The coastlines are a thin, red line. The Dominican Republic is expected to get the most rain out of Emily. You can view the HWRF model runs on Wundermap.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The future of Emily remains uncertain, and even the National Hurricane Center is using the "if" word when forecasting Emily's track after crossing Hispaniola. "If" it makes it north of Hispaniola. Over the past couple of runs, the models have been trending their forecast tracks back to the west, most likely because Emily has remained on a westward track longer than expected. This is expected—the longer Emily remains shallow and unorganized, the longer it will track west. It will need to build up taller in the atmosphere to be influenced by the steering winds that can push it north. Given its westward track, today's models are likely closer to reality than what we've seen in the past couple of days. This morning, the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models send Emily on a northwest track to Florida. This is a change from the past couple of days for the HWRF, but the CMC and UKMET have consistently been the western boundary of model consensus. THE GFDL has also taken a huge swing to the west, and now suggests it will come very close to a southeast Florida landfall. The ECMWF and GFS continue to forecast that Emily will take a harder turn north through the Bahamas, not reaching the Florida coast.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily at 11:15am EDT. The surface circulation is visible to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity.

Consensus of the models falls between the HWRF/GFDL solution and the ECMWF/GFS solution, and the National Hurricane Center continues to use the consensus for the official track forecast, which calls for Emily to take a turn to the northwest and make landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon, after which continuing northwest until Saturday morning when it's between the island of Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, they expect the storm to jog north and then northeast.

Emily's intensity forecast continues highly dependent on the track it takes. Assuming it can survive the wrath of Hispaniola, Emily will enter slightly more favorable environmental conditions to the north of the islands. This is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting, although they remain cautious. There is a very good chance that, if Emily does turn northwest today, it will not be able to reorganize after crossing Hispaniola. If it does maintain organization, Emily could reach hurricane strength as it moves northeast out to the open Atlantic. The other scenario at this point is that the storm keeps moving west, which will be detrimental to its orgnization. The models that track Emily into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico don't suggest any reintensification—the CMC fizzles the system below tropical storm strength quickly, probably because of the long track over Cuba it would have to take. In any case, Emily remains a threat most certainly to Hispaniola, and potentially to Florida.

I'm planning a quick update later this afternoon/evening for an update on new model runs, and potential Hispaniola landfall.

Angela

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Temperatures going north of 115 in TX, AR, and OK today. We are going to melt down here :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


Oh! Excellent, nrt. I have not had a chance to get caught up yet. Thanks!



Look at it again, I posted the wrong graphic the first time.
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Quoting msgambler:
I don't trust any models. They are computers and subject to error. But the BAMM has done the BEST at this storm so far. For at least the last 2 days it has been correct on it's forcast projections. But maybe that is short term, not really sure what is short or long term. All others have had to be shifted to the left and south on every run. But as I said, I do not believe ANY model runs. I pay attention to sattelite pics, movement of storm, ect.. Like what they did in the "old days" before the models. What would some on here do without them. I think some would be totally lost.


This seems to be the year that more sophisticated and global models are performing poorly and the local or simpler models are doing better. Which is counter intuitive... At this point, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a GOM storm or complete dissipation.
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Emily certainly has the blog ripping along. Impressive turnout for a system that can barely retain Tropical Storm status.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
How can it be delayed when it isn't even 5 yet???
they always put it out 10-15 min before , but looks like something is going on with advisories
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Quoting Patrap:




Orleans Excessive Heat Warning Statement as of 10:26 AM CDT on August 03, 2011


... Excessive heat warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT Thursday...



* event... heat index values of 107 to 114 degrees this afternoon and Thursday. Morning lows will hover near 80 degrees... providing little relief from the oppressive heat overnight.

* Timing... heat index values will rise and remain above 105 degrees through 7 PM CDT.

* Impact... the risk of heat related illnesses will be enhanced. Residents are urged to make preparations for the oppressive heat.

An excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur.

The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely.

Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors.


Heat kills.

Children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

Each year... a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to children accidentally being left in vehicles during the Summer months. Remember... beat the heat... check the backseat.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening.

Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work... schedule frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments.

Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 9 1 1. 24/rr
How is Jr. Doing? They gave him enough pain killers right?
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Still 1003mb.

000
UZNT13 KNHC 032051
XXAA 53218 99169 70705 04460 99003 28216 14510 00026 28016 14509
92716 24012 14510 85457 21250 17008 88999 77999
31313 09608 82039
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1686N07047W 2041 MBL WND 15010 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
510 002843 WL150 14509 084 REL 1686N07047W 203929 SPG 1686N07047W
204155 =
XXBB 53218 99169 70705 04460 00003 28216 11939 24409 22855 21827
33850 21250 44843 20463
21212 00003 14510 11960 16010 22950 15010 33894 15009 44867 17013
55855 16509 66843 18507
31313 09608 82039
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1686N07047W 2041 MBL WND 15010 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
510 002843 WL150 14509 084 REL 1686N07047W 203929 SPG 1686N07047W
204155 =
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hurricanejunky:


They're not people, they're storms.


Ahh, but there are reasons they are anthropomorphised. ;)

(Curious why that word is not in my browser's dictionary.)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Pat, how did everything go?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like a delayed advisory
How can it be delayed when it isn't even 5 yet???
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Quoting Dakster:
Hey MH09 -0 How is everything going? I can't watch the local mets here, but I may try NBC6 and see if I can handle it. I usually get better info here anyways. Definetly, much faster.
Doing well. Hope everything is going well for you too.

Yeah, between a news station and the blog, the blog is definitely the better source. You should definitely try NBC 6 though, they're not bad at all.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Matt1989:
what a fizzle year so far..


Climatologically we are supposed to be 2-0-0 at this time. We are 5-0-0.

I'm sorry the two most inactive months in the season didn't pump out a few CAT5s for you.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very true, during times like now I tune in to see what he says.

But I still prefer John, lol, :P.

On occasion, LOL.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Gasp.... you don't watch Max?

On occasion, LOL.



LOL !!
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Quoting winter123:
Is Eugene trying to become annular? If that's the case, it will be going for a long time, even way out into cooler waters.

...EUGENE REACHES CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 3
Location: 16.0°N 115.4°W
Max sustained: 140 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
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956. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Just completed 25N




Oh! Excellent, nrt. I have not had a chance to get caught up yet. Thanks!
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Is Eugene trying to become annular? If that's the case, it will be going for a long time, even way out into cooler waters.

Edit: Should probably post this.
"An annular hurricane, also known as a truck tire or doughnut hurricane,[1] is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes." -Wikipedia
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1800
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emily just wobbling around for the time being. No true movement between the last 3 center fixed.
do you expect anything new with the new advisory
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How ya doin Kman?? Long time no see.

Agreed on the track shift. Not abrupt mind you, but I too believe the NHC will adjust accordingly.

Still too much uncertainty as to whether FL and the SE CONUS is in play here, and to what shape Emily will be in as well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
Quoting beell:


Some beta drift would appear to be all we got going on right now as far as any northward component to motion.


Agree that
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15882
I don't trust any models. They are computers and subject to error. But the BAMM has done the BEST at this storm so far. For at least the last 2 days it has been correct on it's forcast projections. But maybe that is short term, not really sure what is short or long term. All others have had to be shifted to the left and south on every run. But as I said, I do not believe ANY model runs. I pay attention to sattelite pics, movement of storm, ect.. Like what they did in the "old days" before the models. What would some on here do without them. I think some would be totally lost.
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looks like a delayed advisory
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Emily just wobbling around for the time being. No true movement between the last 3 center fixed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
stormpro i noticed it too but i think whatever it is it is to close to the coast to do anything major but good obervation.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Eugene the third cat 4 hurricane
very impressive
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
943. beell
Quoting kmanislander:
Emily has been running along a fairly straight line due West for the past 8 hours and is about to pass a full degree South of the next point. In the absence of a hard right turn an updated track package to the left would appear to be in order.


Some beta drift would appear to be all we got going on right now as far as any northward component to motion.
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Quoting beell:
Thanks, Drak. We'll see if it is a good obs sooner or later, lol.

Wish Gonzo would make a couple of E-W passes along 20-25N.

geez i need a new keyboard...


Just completed 25N







Edit: Orginally posted wrong graphic
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Hey MH09 -0 How is everything going? I can't watch the local mets here, but I may try NBC6 and see if I can handle it. I usually get better info here anyways. Definetly, much faster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Emily has been running along a fairly straight line due West for the past 8 hours and is about to pass a full degree South of the next point. In the absence of a hard right turn an updated track package to the left would appear to be in order.


I totally agree!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8023
Quoting hurricanejunky:


They're not people, they're storms. They are influenced and steered by a complex combination of atmospheric conditions that change from day to day and week to week.


Sadly, it seems like some forget that lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Emily has been running along a fairly straight line due West for the past 8 hours and is about to pass a full degree South of the next point. In the absence of a hard right turn an updated track package to the left would appear to be in order.


I agree.
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What and not get a new computer? No way I'm telling my boss that !
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what a fizzle year so far..
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Time: 20:38:30Z
Coordinates: 16.8667N 70.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.4 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,540 meters (~ 5,052 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.3 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 345° at 5 knots (From the NNW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F)
Dew Pt: 7.3°C (~ 45.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

This could be latest fix not sure!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8023
EPAC just cranked out another Category 4 hurricane.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:
im starting to believe im gonna to put money in that it will go into the gulf like the BAMM BAMS BAMD say, it seems that the arlene and don liked heading to the gulf so why wouldnt emily?


They're not people, they're storms. They are influenced and steered by a complex combination of atmospheric conditions that change from day to day and week to week.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
atmoaggie, ssssssssssshhhhhh, thats the idea she wants her boss to think it isn't usable so she can get a new computer or keyboard ;)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.ht ml

Anybody see the swirl in that blob in the BOC area? Is it a ULL?
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Eugene is a monster

Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on August 03, 2011
Share This
...Eugene reaches category four intensity...


summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.0n 115.4w
about 595 mi...960 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California
maximum sustained winds...140 mph...220 km/h
present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...942 mb...27.82 inches
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The only way Emily takes the BAM model tracks is if she opens up into a wave soon. Considering she has a vigorous low level circulation at the time, that's probably not going to happen. If she opens up into a wave and heads into the Gulf, she would have even less favorable conditions to develop than now since she would be on the SE periphery of the death ridge. The SE portion of the ridge would cause subsidence, not to mention a sheared environment. The only way Emily becomes better than she is now is that if she splits the gap between Hispaniola/Cuba (or goes over Hispaniola briefly) and reorganizes on the other side.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
925. beell
Thanks, Drak. We'll see if it is a good obs sooner or later, lol.

Wish Gonzo would make a couple of E-W passes along 20-25N.

geez i need a new keyboard...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Emily has been running along a fairly straight line due West for the past 8 hours and is about to pass a full degree South of the next point. In the absence of a hard right turn an updated track package to the left would appear to be in order.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15882
Quoting hurricanejunky:
More clustering on FL again...


Yeah. In fact, when you look at it, most models that recurve it have it go over the Dominican Republic. Doesn't look like it's gonna landfall in the Dominican Republic right now..

From day one I said it was my gut feeling that this would recurve (but only after hitting the NE Caribbean first), so I'm rooting for that, but that might be in jeopardy.
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Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Oh no! F5 key just broke! What a day and now I have to explain to the boss why in need a brand new computer! ;)
Ctrl R works the same...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting patrikdude2:
Don't forget Local 10 , they have excellent coverage as well. Max Mayfield is there sometimes for "hurricane expert"
Very true, during times like now I tune in to see what he says.

But I still prefer John, lol, :P.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Gasp.... you don't watch Max?
On occasion, LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Muifa double eyewalls evident on radar: Link

(The linked image will be updated continuously.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.