High wind shear disrupts Emily as it approaches Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011

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In defiance to its forecast, Tropical Storm Emily continues to move due west this morning, and we wonder just how far west it will get before turning toward Hispaniola. Recent Hurricane Hunter missions have shown that Emily is still very poorly organized, and although the center of circulation is plainly obvious on satellite imagery, it's only because it is so displaced from the thunderstorm activity. Wind shear around the storm is just high enough, around 20 knots out of the west, to push the upper levels of circulation and thunderstorm activity to the east, exposing the surface low. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Right now, Emily is tilting to the east. This is bad news for the organization of the storm, and something that Emily will have to work hard at recovering from. In addition to the wind shear, dry air continues to wrap around the north and west of the storm. This isn't as critical as unfavorable wind shear, but it's not helping to create new thunderstorm activity. The strongest winds of 50 mph were found to the north and east of the center this morning, and Emily is not expected to intensify before making landfall in Hispaniola, which is forecast for tonight. The HWRF is forecasting the strongest precipitation to fall on the northeast side of the storm as is passes over Hispaniola. This is relatively good news for Haiti, but the country could still receive up to 5 inches of rain, and since the models have been trending the track west over the past couple of runs, it's something to watch closely. No matter the scenario, Emily is expected to produce heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which are all to common on the mountainous island.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation accumulation from the HWRF high resolution model's 6Z (2am EDT) run. The color contour scale is in inches. The coastlines are a thin, red line. The Dominican Republic is expected to get the most rain out of Emily. You can view the HWRF model runs on Wundermap.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The future of Emily remains uncertain, and even the National Hurricane Center is using the "if" word when forecasting Emily's track after crossing Hispaniola. "If" it makes it north of Hispaniola. Over the past couple of runs, the models have been trending their forecast tracks back to the west, most likely because Emily has remained on a westward track longer than expected. This is expected—the longer Emily remains shallow and unorganized, the longer it will track west. It will need to build up taller in the atmosphere to be influenced by the steering winds that can push it north. Given its westward track, today's models are likely closer to reality than what we've seen in the past couple of days. This morning, the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models send Emily on a northwest track to Florida. This is a change from the past couple of days for the HWRF, but the CMC and UKMET have consistently been the western boundary of model consensus. THE GFDL has also taken a huge swing to the west, and now suggests it will come very close to a southeast Florida landfall. The ECMWF and GFS continue to forecast that Emily will take a harder turn north through the Bahamas, not reaching the Florida coast.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily at 11:15am EDT. The surface circulation is visible to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity.

Consensus of the models falls between the HWRF/GFDL solution and the ECMWF/GFS solution, and the National Hurricane Center continues to use the consensus for the official track forecast, which calls for Emily to take a turn to the northwest and make landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon, after which continuing northwest until Saturday morning when it's between the island of Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, they expect the storm to jog north and then northeast.

Emily's intensity forecast continues highly dependent on the track it takes. Assuming it can survive the wrath of Hispaniola, Emily will enter slightly more favorable environmental conditions to the north of the islands. This is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting, although they remain cautious. There is a very good chance that, if Emily does turn northwest today, it will not be able to reorganize after crossing Hispaniola. If it does maintain organization, Emily could reach hurricane strength as it moves northeast out to the open Atlantic. The other scenario at this point is that the storm keeps moving west, which will be detrimental to its orgnization. The models that track Emily into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico don't suggest any reintensification—the CMC fizzles the system below tropical storm strength quickly, probably because of the long track over Cuba it would have to take. In any case, Emily remains a threat most certainly to Hispaniola, and potentially to Florida.

I'm planning a quick update later this afternoon/evening for an update on new model runs, and potential Hispaniola landfall.

Angela

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1020. extreme236
9:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
That track change looks most conducive for Emily to intensify. About as good as it gets for a storm in this position.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1019. AllStar17
9:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
The cone is actually less in the United States than before. Confusing.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1018. muddertracker
9:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Mr. Avilla...what do you mean by soon?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1017. GHOSTY1
9:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
my bad hurricanejunky i just lost my cool again, you can probably tell i have a short fuse so if i go off be ready cause i do it quite a bit and i get over it. Sorry :P (more like a landmine, a really sensitive land mine)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1016. Slamguitar
9:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting NavarreMark:
It appears that the XTRAP has it nailed.


I knew I wasn't the only one!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
1015. Bluestorm5
9:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting GHOSTY1:
was eugene predicted to be this strong?
it was actually predicted to max out as Category 1.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
1014. ChrisDcat5Storm
9:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1013. beell
9:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Look at it again, I posted the wrong graphic the first time.


Ok. Thanks again. Liked the other flight plan better.
: -)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16924
1012. angiest
9:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Takeaway from the discussion:

HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1011. nrtiwlnvragn
9:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
That old guy who used to be on ABC was the boss... new pple try, but I haven't been THAT impressed. I go to ABC mainly to catch Max...


Walt Cronise (I think thats the spelling)?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
1010. reedzone
9:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Surprised watches weren't issued for South Florida.. Th Bahamas next to South Florida have watches.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
1009. MississippiWx
9:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
No change in the thinking from the NHC on track, as there shouldn't be. Like I said before, the only way Emily goes the BAM route is if she opens up into a wave and that doesn't look likely right now.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1008. AllStar17
9:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Doubts continue in the discussions.

AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1007. Cotillion
8:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2011


Certainly has an interesting eye. Has an annular check been run on it yet?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1005. hurricanejunky
8:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Come on, i really can't believe i have to be so specific in a blog around people who seem like they would be able to understand a simple post, to reexplain when i said what the BAMM BAMS and BAMD "say", i was meant say meant shown. Dont be so persnickity about posts.


Sorry if it came off persnickity but when you end the post by saying that Arlene and Don went into the Gulf, why wouldn't Emily, that was the only logical response I could come up with.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
1004. MiamiHurricanes09
8:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1003. BahaHurican
8:58 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very true, during times like now I tune in to see what he says.

But I still prefer John, lol, :P.

On occasion, LOL.
That old guy who used to be on ABC was the boss... new pple try, but I haven't been THAT impressed. I go to ABC mainly to catch Max...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1002. HurricaneSwirl
8:58 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting wxgeek723:


November is less active than July, climatologically.


Ok, fine. The least active and the third least active months :P
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1001. IKE
8:58 PM GMT on August 03, 2011

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Lol.

Personally, John Morales of NBC 6 is the most knowledgeable and most calm out of everyone in south Florida. That's who I watch 99% of the time.


I gave up watching the local wx news info years ago...I'll give channel 6 a try...hate channel 7 overly dramatic tactics...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC isn't buying the BAM suite at all... Cone shifted to the west more... (good for me, probably bad for others)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

Track change coming and may not be the last one either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Emily certainly has the blog ripping along. Impressive turnout for a system that can barely retain Tropical Storm status.

It's because Emily has been difficult to forecast ever since it was a tropical wave in the far east Atlantic.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802

Tropical Storm EMILY Forecast/Advisory
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



000
WTNT25 KNHC 032054
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
2100 UTC WED AUG 03 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM




Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
was eugene predicted to be this strong?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
993. Skyepony (Mod)
Comparing some model errors here using Average Position Error (in nautical miles) for all the runs for Emily..

model...0hr.....24hr....48hr....72hr.....92hr.... 120hr
BAMD - 92.0 149.3 225.1 298.8 382.0
BAMM - 97.3 144.7 218.9 270.0 278.6
BAMS - 91.4 90.6 121.6 107.2 147.8
CMC 59.6 74.6 113.5 109.0 133.4 184.1
CMC2 0 80.2 90.4 101.9 176.2
GFDI 0 96.6 107.5 107.6 138.2 210.2
GFDL 17.5 91.4 106.7 129.3 130.6 142.8
HWRF 18.1 89.2 148.6 245.4 333.0 455.6
LBAR 0 103.9 118.7 178.0 271.6 293.7
LGEM 0 95.2 136.8 204.7 259.8 278.6
NAM 25.3 111.5 - - - -
NGPS 74.0 109.1 72.3 39.8 76.4 110.7
OFCL 2.6 78.3 112.5 114.9 - -
TVCN 0 88.7 106.7 173.2 200.3 353.7
XTRP 0 141.4 195.9 273.6 385.9 457.6
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39452
11 AM CONE:





NEW (5 PM CONE):


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Here ya go...



Dear Lord...That is the original JFV who followed in Stormtops footprints
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That turn to the north is now or never.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Don't see why models wouldn't shift left at next update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cone shouldn't move west... the wind probs dropped for most of fl...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Matt1989:
what a fizzle year so far..


Every year is a fizzle year until the first major.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Climatologically we are supposed to be 2-0-0 at this time. We are 5-0-0.

I'm sorry the two most inactive months in the season didn't pump out a few CAT5s for you.


November is less active than July, climatologically.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:
How ya doin Kman?? Long time no see.

Agreed on the track shift. Not abrupt mind you, but I too believe the NHC will adjust accordingly.

Still too much uncertainty as to whether FL and the SE CONUS is in play here, and to what shape Emily will be in as well.


Hey Nash, long time no see. Always nice to see the "old time" bloggers stop in.

On the track, I have been expecting Emily to pass between Jamaica and the Western tip of the Tiburon peninsula since Monday and that is starting to look like a real possibility unless that trough really digs down or the High over the US serves as a blocker and forces the storm into whatever there is of the weakness.

As long as it remains sheared out and shallow surprises can happen. Try and visit more often :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
984. IKE
2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 3

Location: 16.8°N 70.3°W

Max sustained: 50 mph

Moving: W at 14 mph

Min pressure: 1006 mb
................................................. .......................

5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 3

Location: 16.9°N 71.0°W

Max sustained: 50 mph

Moving: W at 14 mph

Min pressure: 1003 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

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All went fine ms as he's home sleeping with a fancy smancy water circulating ice pump on his knee too.


Thanx for asking.
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Quoting padirescu:
Just saw a guy selling these shirts on the street corner here in West Palm.




+1
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Quoting winter123:
Is Eugene trying to become annular? If that's the case, it will be going for a long time, even way out into cooler waters.

Edit: Should probably post this.
"An annular hurricane, also known as a truck tire or doughnut hurricane,[1] is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes." -Wikipedia


Oh let's not start this again! ;)

IMHO, doesn't look like it. Now, last year, I was trying to start a new term, quasi-annular, for storms that look annular but don't actually meet the definition. I don't think this one is quasi-annular.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Emily's CoC is still swinging due west. Southwest of 12hr forecast point already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emily just wobbling around for the time being. No true movement between the last 3 center fixed.


I'm not so sure about that, looks like continued steady progress westward. It has more convection near the core than Ive seen so far, so Emily definitely isn't dissipating, pressure has dropped a bit too.

At the same time, its still a shallow system, so a bend WNW seems reasonable tonight into tomorrow, but a hard shift north like the official track and model consensus shows just doesn't make since. Emily is gonna force the forecast to shift west one way or another.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doing well. Hope everything is going well for you too.

Yeah, between a news station and the blog, the blog is definitely the better source. You should definitely try NBC 6 though, they're not bad at all.


Maybe we will get Rick Sanchez back - he is announcing FIU football games now.. (j/k)

Everything is fine here. Just hoping for NO Hurricanes or storms to hit. I do not want to go through fixing the house again!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


They're not people, they're storms. They are influenced and steered by a complex combination of atmospheric conditions that change from day to day and week to week.


Come on, i really can't believe i have to be so specific in a blog around people who seem like they would be able to understand a simple post, to reexplain when i said what the BAMM BAMS and BAMD "say", i was meant say meant shown. Dont be so persnickity about posts.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting Seflhurricane:
they always put it out 10-15 min before , but looks like something is going on with advisories
Well it's not delayed, just not early :)
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-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT25 KNHC 032054
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
2100 UTC WED AUG 03 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.0W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
twc is not convinced it will make the nw turn. west movement would open a whole new realm of possibilities
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Temperatures going north of 115 in TX, AR, and OK today. We are going to melt down here :(
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