High wind shear disrupts Emily as it approaches Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011

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In defiance to its forecast, Tropical Storm Emily continues to move due west this morning, and we wonder just how far west it will get before turning toward Hispaniola. Recent Hurricane Hunter missions have shown that Emily is still very poorly organized, and although the center of circulation is plainly obvious on satellite imagery, it's only because it is so displaced from the thunderstorm activity. Wind shear around the storm is just high enough, around 20 knots out of the west, to push the upper levels of circulation and thunderstorm activity to the east, exposing the surface low. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Right now, Emily is tilting to the east. This is bad news for the organization of the storm, and something that Emily will have to work hard at recovering from. In addition to the wind shear, dry air continues to wrap around the north and west of the storm. This isn't as critical as unfavorable wind shear, but it's not helping to create new thunderstorm activity. The strongest winds of 50 mph were found to the north and east of the center this morning, and Emily is not expected to intensify before making landfall in Hispaniola, which is forecast for tonight. The HWRF is forecasting the strongest precipitation to fall on the northeast side of the storm as is passes over Hispaniola. This is relatively good news for Haiti, but the country could still receive up to 5 inches of rain, and since the models have been trending the track west over the past couple of runs, it's something to watch closely. No matter the scenario, Emily is expected to produce heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which are all to common on the mountainous island.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation accumulation from the HWRF high resolution model's 6Z (2am EDT) run. The color contour scale is in inches. The coastlines are a thin, red line. The Dominican Republic is expected to get the most rain out of Emily. You can view the HWRF model runs on Wundermap.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The future of Emily remains uncertain, and even the National Hurricane Center is using the "if" word when forecasting Emily's track after crossing Hispaniola. "If" it makes it north of Hispaniola. Over the past couple of runs, the models have been trending their forecast tracks back to the west, most likely because Emily has remained on a westward track longer than expected. This is expected—the longer Emily remains shallow and unorganized, the longer it will track west. It will need to build up taller in the atmosphere to be influenced by the steering winds that can push it north. Given its westward track, today's models are likely closer to reality than what we've seen in the past couple of days. This morning, the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models send Emily on a northwest track to Florida. This is a change from the past couple of days for the HWRF, but the CMC and UKMET have consistently been the western boundary of model consensus. THE GFDL has also taken a huge swing to the west, and now suggests it will come very close to a southeast Florida landfall. The ECMWF and GFS continue to forecast that Emily will take a harder turn north through the Bahamas, not reaching the Florida coast.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily at 11:15am EDT. The surface circulation is visible to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity.

Consensus of the models falls between the HWRF/GFDL solution and the ECMWF/GFS solution, and the National Hurricane Center continues to use the consensus for the official track forecast, which calls for Emily to take a turn to the northwest and make landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon, after which continuing northwest until Saturday morning when it's between the island of Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, they expect the storm to jog north and then northeast.

Emily's intensity forecast continues highly dependent on the track it takes. Assuming it can survive the wrath of Hispaniola, Emily will enter slightly more favorable environmental conditions to the north of the islands. This is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting, although they remain cautious. There is a very good chance that, if Emily does turn northwest today, it will not be able to reorganize after crossing Hispaniola. If it does maintain organization, Emily could reach hurricane strength as it moves northeast out to the open Atlantic. The other scenario at this point is that the storm keeps moving west, which will be detrimental to its orgnization. The models that track Emily into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico don't suggest any reintensification—the CMC fizzles the system below tropical storm strength quickly, probably because of the long track over Cuba it would have to take. In any case, Emily remains a threat most certainly to Hispaniola, and potentially to Florida.

I'm planning a quick update later this afternoon/evening for an update on new model runs, and potential Hispaniola landfall.

Angela

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Gfs 18z shows Tropical waves(2) forming in 10 days
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1519. jasblt
Maybe Jason.......was right......That is a joke, Really!! *head tilted to the side*. Still waiting for the turn, and if she does, being as ragged as she "looks" on satellite, might be rough for her, but she has proven quite a few wrong during the last week. Guess we shall see.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


FISH.


Don't get the bust crowd started. ;)
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Quoting ncstorm:
does anyone know where I can find out how wide is Emily?


Like this?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
Quoting kmanislander:
Back for a bit

Looking at the steering Emily may slow significantly or even stall for a while as it moves away from the steering high to the East and falls between that high and the high over the CONUS. So interesting following this one.

That wouldn't be the first time she stalled either...remember when she was in the E. Carib. she stalled, then latter that day the hh found a center 80miles from the previous fix in 2hrs. and we joked how she was moving west at 40mph, finally I think it was earlier today that the advisory read East at 49 mph, of course that was an error and was quickly fixed, but she has certainly thrown us some curveballs and she will continue to do so until she meets her demise and the final advisory is written off on her.
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Lol...WTH?

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Umm, so Emily took a NE jog?
Center fix by recon shows a NE jog/Basically relocation...
16.57 FROM 16.9 IS SOUTH
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Intense system off of the East Coast by D15.



FISH.
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Quoting presslord:
Would one of you fine people be so kind as to post the most recent NHC track graphic? Many thanks!!


hey ya press...one thing to note is that the track moved east tho the storm is going west...and emily by what i can tell still isn't stacked enuf to get pulled by the high...also...from what i can tell...the high is going west along with emily
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
Intense system off of the East Coast by D15.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Seems to me like the CMC has been the best model with Emily so far, a couple of days ago it was the farthest West...and that trend seems to still be going on.
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Back from vacation. So, we get TS Emily. When I left, wind shear was not a factor. But as with Don I suppose, the same thing happened. Is their any wave to watch for development?
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1508. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1494. HurricaneHunterJoe 10:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Is it 2 or 3 Major Hurricanes out of 5?


they had 3 major hurricanes
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Evening Everybody!
One can not help but stick ones oar in sometimes and I feel that I have to comment that when Mr.Grother posted his plots and projections a few days ago for this turbulent thing they now call Emily that I thought that it might slip to the west quite a lot and maybe drift into at least the southern part of the GOM.
I Hope I'm wrong.
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Quoting emguy:


F.) BAMS
Thank You emguy
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1505. ncstorm
does anyone know where I can find out how wide is Emily?
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Pretty far south on this run so far. Along the north coast of cuba.

36Hr HWRF
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Just as a point of comparison, here's the first advisory map NHC posted for Emily:



Here is the current map, for advisory 9:



What do you notice?

Also I thought I heard somebody mention a slowing of Emily's motion. The three vortfixes I thought I saw on the GoogleEarth seem to suggest the 3rd was NW of the first.... could just be meandering, though.

they got the time right at 2pm wed
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is it 2 or 3 Major Hurricanes out of 5?


Three.
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Just as a point of comparison, here's the first advisory map NHC posted for Emily:



Here is the current map, for advisory 9:



What do you notice?

Also I thought I heard somebody mention a slowing of Emily's motion. The three vortfixes I thought I saw on the GoogleEarth seem to suggest the 3rd was NW of the first.... could just be meandering, though.
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348 hours out, LOL:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1498. Levi32
Back after work.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
If Emily Stalls it will be conductive for more strengthening, but on the flip side if it sits to long it will use up SSTs and begin weakening. This is all super interesting to watch.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


This is for the wave that is emerging right now the coast of Africa,or is for the one behind?


Appears to be a healthy compromise of both. Should watch the models for consistency before really investing time into this...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1495. ackee
Quoting emguy:


F.) BAMS
should have the BAMS would agree with u think the CMC as well THE CMC has really improve this year
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Quoting MoltenIce:
The EPac is just laughing at the Atlantic. All (currently) 5 total storms are hurricanes. And Eugene seems to defy forecasts.
Is it 2 or 3 Major Hurricanes out of 5?
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1493. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
why do we want a turn? Poll? How many want a turn?....lol


The folks in the western Caribbean who don't want an angry lady. No matter where this goes, someone gets affected.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS puts our "African Ghost Storm" in the Bahamas by 336 hours as a strong system.

lol


Well, that does it. It's definitely going to Florida then.
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1491. Mucinex
Quoting MississippiWx:
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

*jumping up and down, clapping*
IT'S THE MUCINEX BOOGER GUY!!!
YEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!


or Voldemort...
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Quoting Levi32:
Convection on the increase...can you say turn baby turn? North of west movement may have begun.

RGB loop
why do we want a turn? Poll? How many want a turn?....lol
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Quoting muddertracker:

It's Anakin Skywalker after taking off his darth vadar hat?


I was thinking more of a Conehead character that was infested with rabies.
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GFS puts our "African Ghost Storm" in the Bahamas by 336 hours as a strong system.

lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1487. WxLogic
Emily sure is meandering... pretty much found a sweet spot to seat on and gain strength before it gets disrupted once more by the high terrain of DR/Haiti.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Trying not to fall asleep. Getting late here.

FWIW, the 18z GFS has a very vigorous associated with it's ghost storm. Seems to be tapping the ITCZ a bit.


This is for the wave that is emerging right now the coast of Africa,or is for the one behind?
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Quoting ackee:
which model has been on track with EMily track so far ?

A CMC
B GFS
C UKMET
D ECMWF
E NAM
the XTRP
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Dominican Republic webcams. Link
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1483. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
LMAO, the second I saw that, I thought that that face appeared on the actual satellite image. Didn't occur to me that you drew it, LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1481. OneDrop
Quoting BrandiQ:


It seems that way... lol
Not much to worry about. We may get some possible rain and wind and hopefully some waves this weekend although I fractured my elbow Mon. night so I will be the photographer this weekend.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

It's Anakin Skywalker after taking off his darth vadar hat?
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1479. guygee
Quoting robj144:


Better hope that's not Jesus. People go crazy for Jesus on a grilled cheese, they'd be jumping out of windows if Jesus was embedded in the cloud tops. :)
I'm sorry, I always thought that was the Mona Lisa grilled cheese sammitch


Mona Lisa Cheese Sammitch
Ah, right! Sorry! Back to the tropics!
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 22:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 22:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°57'N 70°29'W (16.95N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 113 miles (181 km) to the SSW (200°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,460m (4,790ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 37kts (From the SE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 21:10:00

Center just relocating under the heavy convection, nothing significant in track as far as I'm concerned, could be wrong!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting wpb:
noaa jet data in the 18xz or 00z models


Some in 18Z, most all in 00Z
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
Quoting JGreco:


Agreed. The furthest East I can see this thing getting is around the West coast of Florida around Ft. Myers before veering sharply East. At least according to current maps.
That was my pick for landfall, Bonita Springs,with Emily running parallel to the coast and then cutting NE or ENE. Looks now as I may be a bit west of the cone.
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Back for a bit

Looking at the steering Emily may slow significantly or even stall for a while as it moves away from the steering high to the East and falls between that high and the high over the CONUS. So interesting following this one.

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1474. ackee
I AM BEGING TO THINK EMILY will track betwwen cuba and jamaica and end for the GULF would not be suprise if this happen the storm has refuse to more WNW or NW so its too weak in my view
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img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
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1472. GetReal
The trof over the Bahamas that was to start Emily NW and north, has flattened out, and is being replaced by CONUS high pressure currently centered over N. Alabama. The flow around this high is now northerly from VA south into the Bahamas. I haven't seen many tropical systems turn into a flow from the opposite direction.

See for yourself... Link

What ever is left of Emily over the next 48 hours should head in the direction of the Florida Straits, or extreme S. Florida in a WNW direction. IMO
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
1471. hotrods
Well i can say this, the hurricane hunter crews are really earning there pay on this storm!
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Umm, so Emily took a NE jog?
Center fix by recon shows a NE jog/Basically relocation...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.