Tropical Storm Emily Approaches Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 AM GMT on August 03, 2011

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As of 8PM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 16.2N, 66.7W, moving WNW at 14 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1005 mb. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands.

2AM EDT Update
As of 2AM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 16.3N, 67.5W, moving WNW at 13 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1006 mb. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands.
End update

Satellite imagery shows a large amount of convection near Emily's center. However, the NHC discussion suggests that Emily is not standing straight up, like an ideal tropical cyclone, but the circulation is tilted eastwards with height. This is due to the wind shear present over the storm.


Figure 1 IR Satellite image of TS Emily taken at 11PM EDT August 2, 2011



Forecasting Emily
The fog of uncertainty still shrouds Emily's track forecast. The 12Z ECMWF and NOGAPS models keep Emily on a west to west-northwest track that skirts the southern edge of Hispaniola before running along the length of Cuba. The 12Z CMC global model has Emily tracking towards the NW, but recurving before making landfall along the US coastline. The 12Z and 18Z GFS runs (as shown in Figure 2), agree on a roughly similar track.


Figure 2 Peak winds (mph) over the next week from the 18Z GFS

The 12Z UKMET global model, and the 18Z GFDL and HWRF dynamical models are west of the GFS/CMC consensus track, withe the GFDL keeping Emily over the western Bahamas. The HWRF and UKMET tracks stay very close to the Florida/Georgia coastlines.

However, all of these tracks require Emily's circulation to grow tall enough that the upper-level steering winds can pull Emily towards the NW. I've discussed the situation with Angela Fritz, and she thinks that if Emily's circulation remains shallow, a more westerly track like that described by the ECMWF and NOGAPS could be more likely.

If we look at the previous NHC forecast, Emily was expected to be at 15.9N, 66.5W at the time of the forecast update. This is approximately 25 miles southeast of Emily's current position. If we ignore the uncertainty of locating Emily's center, this suggests that the westerly ECMWF/NOGAPS track is less likely, but doesn't say much about deciding between the GFS/GFDL and UKMET/HWRF tracks.

My opinion about forecasting Emily's intensity has not changed from this morning's update. I would prefer to wait for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. If Emily's circulation can survive the 8000 feet tall mountains of Hispaniola, the sea is warm enough for moderate intensification.

Having taken all of this into consideration, the 5 day NHC track forecast splits the difference between the HWRF/UKMET and GFS/GFDL tracks, bringing Emily over the central Bahamas before recurving towards the northeast. Emily is also forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday, August 7. However, it is important to remember that NHC has said that the forecast uncertainty after 48 hours is larger than usual for Emily. So, people living on the East Coast should still not think they are in the clear just yet.

In terms of immediate impacts, 4-6 inches of rain are expected over Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, with 10 inches possible in isolated areas.


Figure 2 Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

Eastern Pacific

Eugene is now the third major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season with estimated winds of 115 mph. However, Eugene is well out to sea and should not threaten any landmasses. Invest 97E has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical disturbance in the next 48 hours, but will likely not affect any land areas.

Angela will have a full post Wednesday morning discussing Emily.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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1780. mcluvincane
1:48 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
It's just like last year. Storms struggle to form and survive. Getting kicked out by a trough is a common theme these past couple of years. Starting to think the East coast will not have a Hurricane for quite some time. Gulf coast seems it will be a september or october hit with the Texas High not budging
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
1779. WeafhermanNimmy
8:34 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
FROM NWS RALEIGH DISCUSSION:


Given a broad and modest upper level trough and a slightly
strengthening upper level jet over the northeast/middle Atlantic on
Monday...Emily should have her precipitation focused along and just
left of the track but still well offshore. Another player will be a
stalled cold front which should extend NE to SW along the eastern
Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas providing an good focus for
precipitation. The precipitation distribution across the eastern
Carolinas will be interesting as it is possible there will be a
minimum in precipitation along the coast in an area of short wave ridging
and lower precipitable water air between Emily and the approaching shortwave trough
from the northwest. For now will include low chance probability of precipitation for Monday
into Tuesday for much of central NC with best chance across the
southern/central coastal plain. High temperatures should continue to range
in the low and middle 90s.
Member Since: November 1, 2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234
1778. aspectre
7:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
TS.Emily's travel-speed was 15.7mph([25.2]k/h) on a heading of 278.6degrees(West)

Copy&paste 15.3n63.6w, 15.6n64.9w-15.9n66.3w, 15.9n66.3w-16.3n67.7w, 16.3n67.7w-16.6n68.9w, 16.6n68.9w-16.8n70.3w, ctm, kin, 16.6n68.9w-17.63n77.17w, 16.6n68.9w-18.45n87.77w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for []mGMT then []mGMT :
TS.Emily was headed toward passage over Chetumal,Mexico ~3days from now
after passing 5.5miles south of Jamaica ~1day3hours20minutes from now
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1777. charlottefl
7:42 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Jed that wasn't directed at you. I'm on my phone so it's hard to scroll back through posts.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
1776. charlottefl
7:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


ok, I'm not into criticizing other on the blog, but you deserve it here, you are just flat out stupid. Either that or you are another one trying to cause trouble, I guess I spoke to soon about the blog improving...

Try and tell that to those that experienced it. You don't belong here.

Some of Charley's destruction could be confused with a high end tornado, even with how tiny it was and how fast it was moving, which all the more testifies to the power it had.


If they were to reclassify it it would more than likely be listed as a Cat 5.
If you read the advisories it said the wind at the surface was at least 145mph at the surface. From the last wind mesaurement before landfall, the pressure dropped another 13 mb. The NHC lists it as a gust, but if you talk to the staff at Charlotte Regional Medical Center, the wind instrument there pegged at 172mph and stayed there for a solid 5 minutes before the instrument was ripped off the building. I was in another large commercial hospital building that was totally destroyed by the hurricane. All 3 hospitals , 7 fire stations, 6 schools all destroyed. Charley was anything but overrated.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
1775. Tygor
7:04 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
I would say Texas would welcome Emily (as a tropical storm), but it would just die upon entering the no-rain shield and 110 degree temps.
Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
1774. Jedkins01
5:29 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


ok, I'm not into criticizing other on the blog, but you deserve it here, you are just flat out stupid. Either that or you are another one trying to cause trouble, I guess I spoke to soon about the blog improving...

Try and tell that to those that experienced it. You don't belong here.

Some of Charley's destruction could be confused with a high end tornado, even with how tiny it was and how fast it was moving, which all the more testifies to the power it had.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
1773. robj144
5:22 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting weaverwxman:
If you were in Punta Gorda when Charley hit you would not be downplaying the damage it did. Sanibel/Captiva has still not fully recovered nor has Punta Gorda Cat 4 def. Could Em pull a stunt like that un-likely. I sometimes think that technology in meteorology has made it more difficult at times for the NHC, I know they used reports from ships and the islands back in the 50's to base their projected paths on maybe thats what they should do with Em. JMO though


It split an island in two which is hard to do with 100 mph winds:

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
1772. Watching4Belize
5:18 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
How long will the trof that is supposed to pull Emily to the northwest linger low enough to do this?
Member Since: May 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1771. weaverwxman
5:17 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
If you were in Punta Gorda when Charley hit you would not be downplaying the damage it did. Sanibel/Captiva has still not fully recovered nor has Punta Gorda Cat 4 def. Could Em pull a stunt like that un-likely. I sometimes think that technology in meteorology has made it more difficult at times for the NHC, I know they used reports from ships and the islands back in the 50's to base their projected paths on maybe thats what they should do with Em. JMO though
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 348
1770. iluvocala
5:17 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


You call a Cat 4 hitting FL over rated?


Thank you.
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1769. robj144
5:17 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


What are you talking about?!?! Charley made landfall as a cat. 4. Where are your "studies" coming from?

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
1767. Abacosurf
5:15 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


You are High!! Charley Killed HUMANS!!!

Gusts to 150 plus. Split North captiva in 2.

Did you personally witness the damage??

15 Billion in damage.

Worst storm for SW florida since Donna in 1960

Get a clue!!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
1765. reedzone
5:14 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Starting to refire convection as wind shear weakens slightly, according to the CIMMS shear map, went from 30 knots to 20 knots.

Definitely no depression, this is a 45-50 mph. Tropical Storm that is sheared. A classic "sheared TS"

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
1764. tropicfreak
5:13 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Everyone whatever you just posted repost on the new blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1763. iamajeepmom
5:12 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


You call a Cat 4 hitting FL over rated?


those pictures just made my heart stop.
Member Since: June 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
1761. FLWeatherFreak91
5:11 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Moving due west or SW but not NW at all. NHC should be moving the cone soon it takes them a while to decide that, since there are so many things to consider. I don't blame them it is better to keep Hispaniola prepared for the worst than to just jump and change the cone.
I think Hispaniola will be spared from any sustained tropical storm force winds. The Dominican should be safe from flooding too... We'll have to wait to see if Emily can pull more rain Haiti's direction.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
1760. HimacaneBrees
5:11 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:
You all are insane Gulf-bound?? Emily will either die or move out to see it will not reach the gulf as a TC.


I'll give you 4 to 1 that she does. She will make it to the Gulf, strengthen some, then make that recurve, button hook move. Going anywhere from Ms/Al to the Florida Gulf coast.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1005
1759. ecflweatherfan
5:11 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
I do believe the cone will be shifted westward to include most, if not all of the southern two thirds of FL, and the track will probably end up "splitting the uprights" between FL and the Bahamas... JMO
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1758. aussiecold
5:11 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
now eveything IS point out to the GOM??? lol ,dreamers!!
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1757. stormpetrol
5:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
I know some might laugh and thats ok , but it wouldn't surprise me if HHs find Emily a bit stronger!
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1756. Buhdog
5:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


You are 100% off base kid. Your studies? This ought to be good. It was small...not alot of surge very true. VERY HIGH END CAT 4 ....yes.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
1755. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
05L/TS/E
MARK
16.90N/69.83W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
1753. Bluestorm5
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting SeaMule:
look how far south she is from the tropical forecast points. If you run the RGB, and turn the tropical points on...she is way off the "mark".

and it is a VERY tight and fast circulation. AND convection is starting to re-fire.

She will miss Hispaniola....and unfortunately for us...might just traverse south of the islands....
and slash through the tip of Cuba into the GOM, as a major hurricane.

a very real possibility...given what I am seeing. The models are good...but...

I remember katrina. when she limped into the GOM...no one thought much..models were way off.


just sayin....
It just can't happen with the high pressure over Texas. Just can't.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8008
1752. CaneHunter031472
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Moving due west or SW but not NW at all. NHC should be moving the cone soon it takes them a while to decide that, since there are so many things to consider. I don't blame them it is better to keep Hispaniola prepared for the worst than to just jump and change the cone.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1751. Seflhurricane
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
why is recon over puerto rico
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1750. tropicfreak
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.


You call a Cat 4 hitting FL over rated?





Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1749. PcolaDan
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look at the motion of the low clouds north of Hispaniola in this loop...

Link


ok, now what
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1747. MiamiHurricanes09
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
New blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1746. Cotillion
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Historically, it's a bit of a mixed bag what seasons do in August after a fast early start (for all seasons with 4 or more storms prior to Aug 1st):

1886 – 3 storms, all majors; 1887 – 2 storms, both majors; 1908 – 1 storm; 1909 – 3 storms, 1 major; 1916 – 4 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major; 1933 – 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major*; 1936 – 6 storms, 3 hurricanes; 1959 – 1 storm; 1966 – 1 storm, major; 1995 – 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major**; 1997 – none; 2003 – 3 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major; 2005 – 5 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major; 2008 – 4 storms, 1 hurricane, 1 major***

* - 2 storms formed in august and then later became majors, but only in September.
** - Luis became a major in September.
*** - Hanna became a hurricane in September.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1745. miliohara
5:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting lucreto:


Charley did not "blast" anyone it is arguably the most overrated storm to strike the U.S. in the past decade if they reclassified it, it would at be most likely a 100-105 mph Category 2, from the studies I have done on it.

Also this system is according to CSU's post july 31 analysis a bust, with only 4 or 5 more storms.



I live in Winter Haven and I'm going to tell you that I clocked winds at 110 myself with my wind meter
Member Since: June 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1742. SeaMule
5:07 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
look how far south she is from the tropical forecast points. If you run the RGB, and turn the tropical points on...she is way off the "mark".

and it is a VERY tight and fast circulation. AND convection is starting to re-fire.

She will miss Hispaniola....and unfortunately for us...might just traverse south of the islands....
and slash through the tip of Cuba into the GOM, as a major hurricane.

a very real possibility...given what I am seeing. The models are good...but...

I remember katrina. when she limped into the GOM...no one thought much..models were way off.


just sayin....
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
1741. zawxdsk
5:07 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


First, Charley didn't "blast" Tampa. I was there, had very light rain and about 30 mph gusts. Secondly, Charley was projected to hit the Tampa Bay area, but took a last minute right turn and came ashore in the Fort Myers area, specifically Captiva Island and then Punta Gorda. Then went up the spine of the state to Orlando, exited around Daytona Beach.


Had the girlfriend at the time call from a hotel in Orlando when she was in the eye of the storm. She was on vacation and got caught at the last second. She said that she wished we could trade places and I told her that I wished we could!
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
1737. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:07 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
05L/TS/E
MARK
16.90N/69.83W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
1736. Slamguitar
5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
How is PR holding out?
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1735. patrikdude2
5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
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1733. tropicfreak
5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

As silly as that might have sounded a few days ago, I am really beginning to believe this is a very distinct possibility.


I agree,the NHC has to make a big shift west at the 5pm advisory.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1732. DVG
5:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting stormhank:
I think Emily will pass south of the second forecast point..imo
I am almost always wrong about these things, but I do believe you are correct. It seems that the hwrf, cmc, and ukmet models have the best track as to how far west when it hits 20 north. If the rest of those models forecasts bears out, it is going to get interesting.

In it's weakened condition, are conditions such that a parallel to the south coast of Cuba path for longer than anyone anticipates is possible?
Member Since: August 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
1731. ElConando
5:05 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look at the motion of the low clouds north of Hispaniola in this loop...

Link


That's is some nasty shear.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
1730. Buhdog
5:05 PM GMT on August 03, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
how is wind shear over emily


i believe an anti-cyclone to her south west is causing this.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.