An Uneasy Future for Tropical Storm Emily

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:48 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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As of 5AM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 15.5N, 64.0W, moving W at 16 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1006 mb. Satellite imagery shows that the convection around Emily's center continues to grow, with large amounts of cold anvil cirrus. However, satellite analysis of cloud-top winds suggest that Emily still has an elongated circulation, more like that of a jelly-bean than the compact circulation which is more favorable for intensification. Also, while Emily is in a low-shear region, there are large areas of wind shear to it's immediate north and south. The dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is just north of Emily, which would weaken the storm.


Figure 1 IR Satellite image of TS Emily taken at 3AM EDT August 2, 2011



Forecasting Emily
Model uncertainty is still high for forecasting Emily's track. The 00Z CMC and NOGAPS global models keep Emily on a western track, before recurving to make landfall on the western coast of Florida. The 00Z HWRF and GFDL dynamic
hurricane models both have Emily approaching the eastern coast of Florida, but recurving sharply to the northeast before making landfall. However, the premier global models, GFS and ECMWF, suggest that forecasters should be very cautious.
The 12Z ECMWF did not get a good representation of Emily in its starting conditions, so the forecast Emily did not gain strength and drifted westwards, missing Hispanola. The 00Z GFS does not have any forecast features that could be reasonably associated with Emily in my judgement. From what I can tell, the GFS moves Emily's circulation over Hispanola and Emily then never has a chance to organize. This is disconcerting since the previous 4 runs of the GFS had produced a reasonably robust tropical cyclone with winds near or just exceeding hurricane strength.

Even though the tracks produced by these models are different in their long-term outlooks, they all suggest that Emily will pass by Hispanola close enough for that island's mountains to impact the storm's winds and thus dampen any intensification. However, the 00Z NAM model does not bring Emily near the island, and keeps it moving westwards into the Caribbean sea as a well-organized storm. This, combined with the widely different solutions discussed previously, suggests that people across the Caribbean and living along the Gulf coast should keep an eye on this storm for the next several days.

I would prefer to make an intensity forecast for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. Many storms have weakened considerably after passing by there, and some have dissipated (TS Cindy in 1993, for example).

In light of this uncertainty, the NHC forecast hasn't changed that much. Emily is forecast to turn towards the northwest, making landfall somewhere in southeastern Florida on Saturday as a weak hurricane. (5AM EDT update NHC has adjusted their forecast to the east, so Emily does not make landfall in the next 5 days. Also, Emily does not reach hurricane strength in this forecast.) Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Haiti.


Figure 2 Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

Angela will have a full post later today discussing Emily.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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1559. BahaHurican
8:57 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Afternoon again, all. Anybody else having trouble with the blog setup this afternoon? All the messages are showing as part of the first message for me...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
1558. hurricanejunky
8:45 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Models all shifting well offshore now...

Emily gonna be a fish storm now?


Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
1557. Patrap
8:18 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1556. jonelu
7:47 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
I think the broad LLC makes it easier for her to survive a pass over Hispanola.
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
1555. jonelu
7:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Just went to Habitat for Humanity Re-Do Center (WPB) for shutters. They were sold out on some of the more common window sizes. I have the old style clam shells on more than half the house. Bought the house June 6. Hopefully my area wont get more that TS winds because I still have 2 large windows and some sliders shutters to buy.
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
1554. aspectre
7:27 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
15.4n63.7w has been re-evaluated&altered for the 6pmGMT ATCF
15.3n63.6w, 15.6n64.8w are now the most recent positions

TS.Emily's travel-speed was 13.8mph(22.3k/h) on a heading of 284.6degrees(WestNorthWest)

Copy&paste 15.0n58.5w, 15.1n60.5w-15.3n62.2w, 15.3n62.2w-15.3n62.8w, 15.3n62.8w-15.3n63.6w, 15.3n63.6w-15.6n64.8w, dom, ocj, 15.3n63.6w-18.08n76.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Emily was headed toward passing between LongBay and RuralHill,Jamaica ~4days7hours from now>
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1553. Skyepony (Mod)
7:04 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Intensity models continue to come up short.. Recon had 49kts in the vortex message, this lot didn't see anything that strong for atleast 24hrs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38698
1552. poknsnok
6:52 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


I heavily agree with you, thanks for the good analysis!




i hink thats a bout a 5% chance but we will see. Em looks like she is already moving more north and will cross hispanola farther east than projected
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1551. ChrisDcat5Storm
6:46 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
she going WNW now
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1550. BenBIogger
6:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting hurricanejunky:
GFS shifting far east as well...



Mondays 18z Run.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1549. chevycanes
6:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting DVG:


Does the time and date stamp not say 14:21 EDT? They look west to me.?

Using the funktop sat imagery, it looks as if the storm is moving 1 degree west about every 7 hours. Looking at the green appearing as what I think is the center and following that west ( although the green has gone away and I used the lighter red )is how I came to that conclusion. If I am right ( I'll appreciate any disagreement ) then it actually wobbled a slight bit s of due west.

when i posted the link they weren't updated and now i don't see the lines for the bam models yet.



Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
1548. BenBIogger
6:43 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
Link




S.FL is a-ok


For the moment.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1547. hurricanejunky
6:42 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
GFS shifting far east as well...

Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
1546. ChrisDcat5Storm
6:41 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Link




S.FL is a-ok
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1545. DVG
6:37 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting chevycanes:

no it's not. not sure why someone would post the 8am models when the 2pm models will be out soon.


Does the time and date stamp not say 14:21 EDT? They look west to me.?

Using the funktop sat imagery, it looks as if the storm is moving 1 degree west about every 7 hours. Looking at the green appearing as what I think is the center and following that west ( although the green has gone away and I used the lighter red )is how I came to that conclusion. If I am right ( I'll appreciate any disagreement ) then it actually wobbled a slight bit s of due west.
Member Since: August 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
1544. BenBIogger
6:37 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
According to the recent recon pass, Emily has a broad LLC.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1543. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting yonzabam:
Heading west at 12 mph. When does this sharp northwards turn towards Hispaniola start? I know there's a trough up there, somewhere, but it's having very little influence, so far. Surprised the latest track forecast still takes it through Hispaniola. How much longer does it have to go west for them to make it a Cuba storm?
i think the storm is going 280 degrees at 10kts, it would not require a sharp turn to zero in on Hispaniola, what maybe to 285 or 290 degrees
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1542. chevycanes
6:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Link
GFDL and UKM are the most recent runs. the bam models should update soon to 18z
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
1541. ChrisDcat5Storm
6:29 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting chevycanes:

no it's not. not sure why someone would post the 8am models when the 2pm models will be out soon.


can i get the best and easyest to navagate site were i can find the models plz
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1540. chevycanes
6:27 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
the models shifted back west is this true?

no it's not. not sure why someone would post the 8am models when the 2pm models will be out soon.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
1539. chevycanes
6:26 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Models shifted West...


those are the 8am models.

the latest GFS, CMC, GFDL have all shifted east and keep it east of FL.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
1538. ChrisDcat5Storm
6:26 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
the models shifted back west is this true?
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1537. WeatherLoverinMiami
6:25 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
It would only make sense if it keeps going west track has to move west
Member Since: January 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
1536. ChrisDcat5Storm
6:23 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Models shifted West...



are theese reliable sorces ?
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1535. WeatherLoverinMiami
6:23 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Emily is still moving west




I asked should the track move west if it keeps going west
Member Since: January 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
1534. MeterologyStudent56
6:23 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ummm, it can easily change.


The 2PM Models are coming in soon correct?
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
1533. tropicfreak
6:22 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Now i think its Finally Safe to say this will not have a Direct Impact on South Florida as the Models are shifting East


Ummm, it can easily change.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1532. wunderkidcayman
6:21 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Emily is still moving west
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12555
1531. MeterologyStudent56
6:20 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Models shifted West...

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
1530. patrikdude2
6:19 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Odd, they say TS conditions are expected in PR, and then their map says there is only a 10-20% chance.
The map is based on 8AM forecast, it could have changed a bit by now.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
1529. twooks
6:19 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
12Z Euro kills it within 48 hours...

48



24


Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
1527. ncstorm
6:18 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Link

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
1525. ChrisDcat5Storm
6:16 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Levi u seeing this WNW movement also
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
1524. WeatherNerdPR
6:16 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Very possible given how far out the TS-force winds extend to the northeast of the center.

Thanks. But with it passing 100+ miles to the south, and it's windfield being ~70 miles in diameter (maybe 80 at closest approach), still don't see it doing much wind-wise to PR.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1523. Neapolitan
6:16 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
1522. patrikdude2
6:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
They're actually expecting TS conditions in PR?
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
1521. chevycanes
6:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
its moving slightly North of due West as they have been predicting for today.

from the NHC at 11am discussion: THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
1520. Abacosurf
6:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
1506 "I don't think too much intensification will occur upon passing Hispaniola. Dry air, shear, and upper divergence will all become less favorable as it approaches the massive ridge over the US."

Strongly disagree.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
1519. CybrTeddy
6:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
OT: The drought in Texas caused a lake to dry up enough that it appears they've found another large piece of Space Shuttle Columbia.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
1518. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Do we know how many vortices are under the mid level circulation with any degree of certainty?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1517. RitaEvac
6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
She's hesitating, she stopped, now back up running, gonna sidewap the cornerback which is the trough and pull a nice smooth one a lil later and then it's westbound down the sidelines to SCORE
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1516. Levi32
6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Levi, do you think models will continue moving east, or start shifting a bit to the west?


I don't forecast the models. I forecast the storm. If I ever talk about models possibly shifting in the future, I am talking about their "need" to shift to where I think the storm will go, because eventually they would be forced to.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1515. SavannahStorm
6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
For 60 miles to the SW of the center, recon's finding nothing but 0-10kts out of the SSW.

Weird.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
1514. yonzabam
6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Heading west at 12 mph. When does this sharp northwards turn towards Hispaniola start? I know there's a trough up there, somewhere, but it's having very little influence, so far. Surprised the latest track forecast still takes it through Hispaniola. How much longer does it have to go west for them to make it a Cuba storm?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2958
1513. WeatherNerdPR
6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Again, Emily is kind of fat. Better than yesterday, but fat.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1511. HurricaneSwirl
6:13 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting patrikdude2:


Odd, they say TS conditions are expected in PR, and then their map says there is only a 10-20% chance.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1510. CaribbeanWave
6:13 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting hurricanejunky:
My analogue for Emily was David 1979...




Emily is almost taking a similar track.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
1509. Hurricanes12
6:13 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Levi, do you think models will continue moving east, or start shifting a bit to the west?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.