Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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1716. AWeatherLover
12:29 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
For all you Tampa people out there, has anyone checked put the new "virtual tour" on the NWS Tampa website? It's pretty neat if you're interested in seeing all the different positions and how the office is set up.
Looks like Emily will be changing up some of our weekend plans. It's a good practice run to make sure we are all ready for what the rest of the hurricane season can bring.
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1715. Thundercloud01221991
10:53 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
I think that Emily may be reforming her center further east
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1714. Neapolitan
9:29 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
If Emily fails to make it to hurricane status, as is now predicted, this season would be somewhat of an anomaly. The only year in that span in which none of the first five named storms attained hurricane status was 2002, which didn't see a hurricane until Gustav formed in early September. From 1995 through 2011, there have been:

'A' storm: 4 hurricanes, 11 tropical storms, 1 subtropical storm

'B' storm: 6 hurricanes, 11 tropical storms

'C' storm: 5 hurricanes, 12 tropical storms

'D' storm: 11 hurricanes, 6 tropical storms

'E' storm: 9 hurricanes, 8 tropical storms

On average, over that time frame, the first five named storms have consisted of 2 hurricanes, 2.94 tropical storms, and 0.06 subtropical storms.

Just some idle pondering...
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1711. MiamiHurricanes09
8:53 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Gonna take a nap...probably be back for the Recon mission at 8a.m.
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1709. Stormchaser2007
8:50 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
No change in strength and no longer forecast to attain hurricane strength.
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1708. KoritheMan
8:49 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
000
WTNT45 KNHC 020848
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1707. WeafhermanNimmy
8:48 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 64.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
UNTIL EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: November 1, 2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234
1706. GeoffreyWPB
8:48 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Miami NWS Discussion

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EMILY
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING TO THE WEST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES EMILY
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA AND THEN VERY CLOSE
TO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM. THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND REFLECTS THIS
SCENARIO...AND ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
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1705. tea3781
8:47 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
When does Recon go out?
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1704. WeafhermanNimmy
8:45 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Update coming soon!
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1702. GeoffreyWPB
8:38 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
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1701. texwarhawk
8:36 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Convection is forming near where convergence is strongest though.
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1700. texwarhawk
8:35 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
I believe this is the 3rd D-max in a row that main convection has dropped and new convection has started further west-- interesting.
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1698. texwarhawk
8:31 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
ugh Comcast is giving me trouble I've only had internet for about 10 sec at a time every 5 min
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1697. WeafhermanNimmy
8:30 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
This is bizarre. If TS Emily doesnt jog to the WNW anytime soon, then rapid intensification looks to be likely.
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1696. RedStickCasterette
8:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Thanks for everyone's input this evening/morning.

Need to try and get to sleep.
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1695. KoritheMan
8:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting deaddude21:

Not if she continues due west or around 275-ish, she'll veer south.


If the center has relocated to the east though, I doubt she will. Still a lot of variables to work out.
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1694. MiamiHurricanes09
8:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
Alright, I can't even hold my eyes open with my fingers anymore. See you guys later today.
Night. I'm still wayyyy too awake, lol.
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1693. RedStickCasterette
8:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


We've had it here, too, but I notice it quickly recedes, which to me is an indication that the ground is still fairly dry.


Haha yeah, it recedes and leaves tons of mud that my Shepherds love to dig and roll around in when I let them outside.

I get what you are saying though. One would think with the continual rain that the drought here would be gone.
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1692. PensacolaBuoy
8:11 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Guadeloupe & Martinique radar:
Link
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1691. MississippiWx
8:10 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Alright, I can't even hold my eyes open with my fingers anymore. See you guys later today.
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1690. KoritheMan
8:10 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Kori, I almost say that chart is a liar regarding the drought here, lol. The BR area has had rain just about every day the past few weeks. My yard is a swamp!


We've had it here, too, but I notice it quickly recedes, which to me is an indication that the ground is still fairly dry.
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1688. RedStickCasterette
8:06 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Personally, I was pulling for Don to do much more for poor Texas. When I was there in the Houston area in June, the heat and dryness was crazy.
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1686. KoritheMan
8:06 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting deaddude21:

It's possible if Emily stays weak...


She's still likely to run into Hispaniola, though.
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1685. emguy
8:06 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
So, apparently there is nothing to be concerned about with the half of the models at this time wanting to head into the Gulf?


There is a chance of concern in the gulf if trends continue and the trough split continues to show its face, but only in the eastern quarter. The Texas ridge and any trough split would proclude westward trends. This pattern is much, much different of a pattern than when there was a deep SE US ridge tied in with the Bermuda High like 2008 with Ike. Should be noted, the BAMS model represents shallow systems, i.e. BAM(S), which looks at possibilities for weak systems such as waves or disorganized shallow depressions and sheared systems. She's not a candidate right now for that, but the model will always be run to show the scenario.
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1684. FLPandhandleJG
8:04 AM GMT on August 02, 2011












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1683. Stormchaser2007
8:04 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
I guess the next recon is at 8am?

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1682. RedStickCasterette
8:03 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Kori, I almost say that chart is a liar regarding the drought here, lol. The BR area has had rain just about every day the past few weeks. My yard is a swamp!
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1680. MississippiWx
8:02 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
6z NAM initializes Emily in the correct location:

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1678. RedStickCasterette
8:00 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting texwarhawk:

I think we (Houston area) got extremely lucky with Ike. It could have been so much worse had it got its act together quicker after crossing Cuba. I still today preach that it was a Cat 3 strengthening up to landfall. Probably just because I went through it though.


I believe ya'll did too! Some of my close family members are still in that area and I was so worried.

We got lucky the same way here with Gustav. I moved here just in time for that sucker, lol.
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1677. TomTaylor
8:00 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Evenin/mornin!

Yessir, I meant southeastern. Fixed my post.
ah yea, forgot it's like 4am over there for you guys. Only 12:58 here so it still feels like evening over here.

And alright, figured that's what you meant
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1676. KoritheMan
7:59 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting deaddude21:

No...doesn't look anticyclonic to me, but if Emily should carry her anticyclone with her?


It's possible in the BAMS scenario, where she doesn't encounter any landmasses. However, that is unlikely at this point.
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1675. texwarhawk
7:59 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
So, apparently there is nothing to be concerned about with the half of the models at this time wanting to head into the Gulf?


I personally wouldn't be concerned unless they follow that pattern for another 48-72hrs
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1674. KoritheMan
7:58 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Gustav may not have been Katrina but he was bad enough!

Emily sure is interesting.

I just wish this continual daily rain we have had for weeks would move on over to Texas and give them a break! I've had enough, lol.


Believe it or not, we're far from free of the crippling drought:

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1672. RedStickCasterette
7:58 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
So, apparently there is nothing to be concerned about with the half of the models at this time wanting to head into the Gulf?
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1671. MiamiHurricanes09
7:56 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
Evenin Miami

And you mean Southeastern flank of the ridge, right?
Evenin/mornin!

Yessir, I meant southeastern. Fixed my post.
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1669. texwarhawk
7:56 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, the southwestern flank is where subsidence is located. Both Karl from last year and Ike from 2008 are prime examples.

I think we (Houston area) got extremely lucky with Ike. It could have been so much worse had it got its act together quicker after crossing Cuba. I still today preach that it was a Cat 3 strengthening up to landfall. Probably just because I went through it though.
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1668. TomTaylor
7:54 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, the southwestern flank is where subsidence is located. Both Karl from last year and Ike from 2008 are prime examples.
Evenin Miami

And you mean Southeastern flank of the ridge, right?
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1667. texwarhawk
7:53 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting deaddude21:
I don't think Janiel is gay...just a weirdo, not sure about Jason though. It'd be more reasonable than him asking a white girl out in Spanish by calling her a "p**a", though.

Hey texwarhawk, that's not fair...I have acne! lol. I'm 17 though.


lol so do I and I'm 19 so I wouldn't stress too much.
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1666. emguy
7:53 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Randyman:


You talk about major drama...what if Emily behaves similarily to what the latest GFS is suggesting and takes a track close to that of the BAM-S? I think some folks on this blog would truly lose their mind...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF AS OUR HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.


I believe what they are referencing in the erosion of the ridge is in relation to the trough split we may be seeing taking shape. If so, there will be an upper level low over the western gulf, which will still protect the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama area from Emily...which will "if all this evolution proves true", be moving her way through the eastern quarter of the Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Florida on her way to getting picked up and yanked out by the next trough. But on that note...Stay tuned....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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