Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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1314. GHOSTY1
Your right, french isn't my language :P sorry for sabotaging the language for all you frenchies. Good night to all and thank you for once again giving me a great day to listen to some educational information and stories.
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1313. cwf1069
Quoting sunlinepr:


It just started rainning here about 5 min. ago...


Are you in San Juan?
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Best thing to do is ignore him ghosty1 and thats it no problems from him.
At least the "JFV" impostor has been laying low. I heard he is working on a line of designer shower curtains. :)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Any info about recon? I bet they find a 50mph storm when they get out there. If the center is truly relocating under this intense convection, then it might be a little stronger. We'll see. Emily has proved to be very unpredictable.
Nothing.

I hope they're not having communication problems like they were having a few days ago again.
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1309. 7544
emily might be stronger on the next two shes shaping up great something ticked her off
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1308. Seawall
Quoting GHOSTY1:


So what now he's trying to be a smart^?$ and get back at everyone and please pardon my french. :)


Ghosty, he doesn't have that ability, I'm afraid. Concerned about him, but not gonna lose sleep over him.
If you get my drift.
PS, your posts would look a lot better if you lose the french.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
For those who want my forecast, I just finished one on Emily.


Thanks!!
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Quoting MoltenIce:
Poor Muifa gets ignored. :P


It actually looks better organized than it has over the last few days.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
1305. Ryuujin
Quoting MississippiWx:
Any info about recon? I bet they find a 50mph storm when they get out there. If the center is truly relocating under this intense convection, then it might be a little stronger. We'll see. Emily has proved to be very unpredictable.


You can say that twice, Mississippi.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
Quoting cwf1069:
Puerto Rico receiving his first band fr. Emily


It just started rainning here about 5 min. ago...

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1303. GHOSTY1
beell, ur right i needed to step back and take a breather but some bloggers need to learn that everyone is different like they taught me in elementary thats why i said i was in the wrong too, and once again thank you for the peacemaker of the group :) :) (yes this did deserve double smiley's)
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Poor Muifa gets ignored. :P - 945 hPa with 85 knot 10-minute winds.
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Quoting Torgen:
I remember a scifi short story in Analog magazine, *many* years ago, where a scientist takes his giant experimental orbiting "solar power collecting satellite that beams the energy down to the surface via microwaves" machine, points it down into the east Pacific ahead of a hurricane, and turns it up to 11, creating a huge hotspot that recurves the storm back out to sea. The story ends with him expecting the military to come and take him away, and use his orbiting power generator to militarize the weather instead of producing clean energy.


Well, that's what Haarp conspiracy theorists claim, that using microwave antenas, the project can heat up the ionosphere creating a 100 x100 mile heated high pressure that could deviate hurricanes....

Not far from that...
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Any info about recon? I bet they find a 50mph storm when they get out there. If the center is truly relocating under this intense convection, then it might be a little stronger. We'll see. Emily has proved to be very unpredictable.
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1298. beell
1187. GHOSTY1 4:28 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

Had to step away for a sec, GHOSTY1. Glad you read it with a smile as intended.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
For those who want my forecast, I just finished one on Emily.
kool bout to see wats up
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1296. cwf1069
Puerto Rico receiving his first band fr. Emily
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1294. Torgen
Quoting GHOSTY1:
God, he bein' such an immature lil' bas?#$Y( (once again please pardon my french im new at it) :P


Obviously he's ignored by his parents and peers, and is looking for attention. Don't post about him, just click "!" then "-". Enough people do this, and the blog scripts will hide his posts and flag him for banning.
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1293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting lovejessicaa9:


the coc is to the nw of that blue hoop past the islands se of PR virgin islands

i think you need some sleep like 3 or 4 days before you trip out for lack of it its for you're own good go to sleep
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1292. GHOSTY1
anybody got there counsellor ready because i may need it now? :)
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For those who want my forecast, I just finished one on Emily.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
Quoting Torgen:
I remember a scifi short story in Analog magazine, *many* years ago, where a scientist takes his giant experimental orbiting "solar power collecting satellite that beams the energy down to the surface via microwaves" machine, points it down into the east Pacific ahead of a hurricane, and turns it up to 11, creating a huge hotspot that recurves the storm back out to sea. The story ends with him expecting the military to come and take him away, and use his orbiting power generator to militarize the weather instead of producing clean energy.
Yea, I think I remember that one. Cool stuff!
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1289. Torgen
Wife has finally finished watching movies for the night (morning?) so now can get some sleep. See everyone in about 9 hours.
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1288. GHOSTY1
God, he bein' such an immature lil' bas?#$Y( (once again please pardon my french im new at it) :P
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1287. JLPR2
Quoting P451:
Well...time to let Emily do her thing overnight. Watch a little TV and drift off.



I think I'll do that and come back in an hour or two to see if recon took-off and what they found...

Later!
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1284. GHOSTY1
Quoting Seawall:


I had the nice first row seat of watching Jason melt down last night. It wasn't pretty. Answering his own posts, several times, and well, to say the least it wasn't very nice. It was the first time I put him on ignore. I respect everyone on this blog, and Jason had made some really good predictions during the last few weeks, but he went down hill quickly, and for whatever reason, and it's not mine to call, but he did it to himself. Again, it wasn't a pretty site. Think I'll go back to the stadium seating now.


So what now he's trying to be a smart^?$ and get back at everyone and please pardon my french. :)
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1283. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's certainly possible.
It looks like the center is where the burst of convection is now.
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she'll be a cane by noon tomorrow imo
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Quoting P451:


I screen capture them, do a little editing, and then upload them to a separate source.



Too much work...LOL.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Here is a great loop.

Btw there are tons of links on this site to all kinds of radars, satellite imagery, etc.


Thanks for those links, Great...
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Quoting stillwaiting:
hot towers
Yeah, and you aren't just looking at baby sprigs of them. These are tall baby's.
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1277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FrankZapper:
So Jason is BI?


maybe a cross dresser you know likes to dress up to look like a girl

not that there is anything wrong with that each to there own

he just don't have to be such an ass about it
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Quoting P451:


Do they even need to?

The storm is coming towards them. Why not just wait for it to come to you? Put your feet up, brew some coffee, toss a few weather balloons out the window.

:D



No Hurricanes will ever reach CA we have a shield over my state (The California Current) :DD
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hot towers
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The Lesser Antilles are getting rocked:

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Quoting scott39:
Thanks, Is the main burst of convection to the SE of Emilys center?


It's certainly possible.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
1272. GHOSTY1
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Casper is not so friendly......


Were you referring to me, if so im sorry for my rant/outburst whatever you want to call it i just like to defend my opinions without opposition but like i said before everyone is entitled to there opinion and i like that even though i may not seem so. I simmered down some, and sorry for any friendly fire out there.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You must have missed my question. How do I post loops on the blog?
He probably posts gifs from satellite images he has saved.

You can create them on gicker.com.

He also could also just be smart and do some crazy stuff no one would think of.
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1270. Seawall
Quoting GHOSTY1:
P451 i told you to not start it or ill get goin and we'll just start to waste everyone elses time here and can they find jasons ip address and just not allow that connection wherever its comin from to work, and what did he get banned for? (right now it looks as if he's bein a dumb*7%)


I had the nice first row seat of watching Jason melt down last night. It wasn't pretty. Answering his own posts, several times, and well, to say the least it wasn't very nice. It was the first time I put him on ignore. I respect everyone on this blog, and Jason had made some really good predictions during the last few weeks, but he went down hill quickly, and for whatever reason, and it's not mine to call, but he did it to himself. Again, it wasn't a pretty site. Think I'll go back to the stadium seating now.
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Quoting jazzie:


I wasn't on your case specifically KoritheMan, I was referring to everyone on here that seems to wish for a devastating storm to hit somewhere. Yea you can tell from the excited tones of their posts when a storm starts to crank, It's just plain not right to get excited over anything that will cause pain or suffering. I'm just saying, nothing against you individually. Oh yes and anyone that has a fetish over serial killers or anything that causes pain and suffering is equally wrong. I will go back back to lurking now and watch the progress of the most recent disturbance.


No hard feelings. I do understand.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
Quoting texcane:
There may have been some posts to this affect earlier, so sorry if this is repetitive. It would seem to me that the million dollar is timing. It looks like a leap of faith that Emily will thread the needle between the Texas ridge that has been cooking the state for so long and the Atlantic ridge about 3-4 days out on the Gfs. So, given that, and the predominantly westward wind flow from Florida to Texas, what happens if it misses that window, particularly if Emily tracks any further westward?


My thoughts exactly.
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


Those models are considered the outliers, right now. Working under the assumption that the trough will erode the ridge enough to pull a weak system north. Not gonna happen, IMO. Maybe a slight wnw or nw jog, but it will be temporary and the ridge will build back in very strongly. Check models by Wednesday and they will be trending more westward.
kool u got a good point about that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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