Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
whens recon supposed to go wheels up?
fifty minutes ago....
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's one out of Martinique.


Thanks!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's one out of Martinique.


Don't you wish every little spit of land had level 3 radar? America seems to be the most interested in atmospheric research imo. Well maybe not most interested but most easily accessible.
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Quoting sailingallover:

thanks for the loops. I can't get them on my iphone.
Maybe we should have a Storm party n Salinas tomorrow


Salinas, California? Thats the only Salinas I know (I'm a Californian)
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whens recon supposed to go wheels up?
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1361. scott39
Who else thinks that Emily has all the convection to the E and almost none to the W?
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Emily 1987

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FULL

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AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST SAT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID...PERHAPS UPPER 90S...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY SAT AFTN/EVENING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SE THROUGH THE CWA
SUN-MON...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF FLORIDA MAKE FOR RATHER UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE CARRIED A BROAD-BRUSHED 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON SUNDAY...AND 20% CHANCES NORTH/30% SOUTH ON MON.

---
starting to get mentioned in my discussion sigh... if it follows the western side of the cone guess im getting walloped.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Is there no radar in the islands we can see or have I just missed them??


Here's one out of Martinique.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
Is anyone else having trouble with Recon data in Google Earth--- I don't really wanna go back to reading them on NHC's website, don't even know if I'll remember how to decode.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


why would we want that?!


I think he means for recurvature prospects.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
Where the heck is recon?
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Quoting sunlinepr:

thanks for the loops. I can't get them on my iphone.
Maybe we should have a Storm party n Salinas tomorrow
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1351. scott39
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
French analysis

(Insert French Joke Here)

Thats easier to see that Emily is E side heavy in convection and a little to none on the W side. IMO
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Quoting Levi32:
A word of caution: I have been around to see countless storms look impressive at night with IR2, only to be uncovered as frauds in the morning light. We'll see which Emily is tomorrow, possibly sooner once recon gets in to give us another center location.


Is there no radar in the islands we can see or have I just missed them??
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Quoting weatherman566:
Emily getting stronger now could be a good thing for the United States. We want a stronger system to develop before she hits Hispaniola.


why would we want that?!
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Hurricane Emily (2005)
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x
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1346. twooks
What's with the french model use lately...

True levi, but you have to agree she looks better than she ever has.
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Quoting Levi32:
A word of caution: I have been around to see many storms look impressive at night with IR2, only to be uncovered as frauds in the morning light. We'll see which Emily is tomorrow, possibly sooner once recon gets in to give us another center location.


Yeah, that's why I've been putting a disclaimer on my statements. LOL.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting cwf1069:
Puerto Rico receiving his first band fr. Emily
Hope it doesn't happened again, but in Sept. 10, 1996, Hortense was passing south of Guallama,PR, about 75 miles and made a loop to NW making land fall in the western half of the Island,then again Hortense was an 85 mph, hurricane when that happened.
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1342. Marou
here in guadeloupe we have some good gust...
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Quoting Levi32:
A word of caution is that I have been around to see many storms look impressive at night with IR2, only to be uncovered as frauds in the morning light. We'll see which Emily is tomorrow, possibly sooner once recon gets in to give us another center location.


This 1000x.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
I'd put the center just west or on the western side of the yellow in this image:



Probably gonna get burned with my statements when recon gets out there, but it all makes sense to me for now.
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1339. scott39
If the center is truly that far ahead of the convection, it will take time for Emily to organize more. IMO
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1338. Levi32
A word of caution: I have been around to see countless storms look impressive at night with IR2, only to be uncovered as frauds in the morning light. We'll see which Emily is tomorrow, possibly sooner once recon gets in to give us another center location.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
French analysis

(Insert French Joke Here)

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Emily getting stronger now could be a good thing for the United States. We want a stronger system to develop before she hits Hispaniola.
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1335. txjac
Quoting sailingallover:
boat and I Sitting in the mangroves near Salinas on the south cost of PR
waiting for Emily. Anybody ever want to ride out a storm on a boat
let me know. But you have to strip the canvas...


Dont you get scared being on the water when storms are in the area? That has to be some kind of life. Never have really been on a boat so its hard for me to imagine
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they need to put up hurricane watches atleast for pr,probably warnings imo,like soon!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Steady organization. Deep convection.
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1332. cwf1069
Quoting sunlinepr:


Caguas, S of SJ....
My sister is right now doing temporary work in St. Croix...

I think you will be receiving good amounts of rain. Emily made up her mind and is organizing much better and faster. At this pace will attain 50 to 65mph before going in the Hispaniola.
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1331. Seawall
Quoting MississippiWx:
I probably shouldn't say this and I should probably be more conservative with how Emily's history has been, but she is impressing me right now. I truly believe her circulation has been drawn into the main area of convection. It's still not directly in the middle. Most likely in the Western half somewhere around 15N. If that's the case, that will throw yet another wrench into the model runs. However, that will most likely lead to an eastward shift in the models. Just speculation on my part right now, but I have a good deal of confidence in what I'm seeing. Wish the HH would get their tails out there already.

445UTC Image:



Just learning to study the images, well, after a few years.. lol, but I agree with you. I think time will tell; and with slight strengthening, Emily will lend itself to a recurve slightly right of the current models.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, but this Emily should track a lot farther west that Emily (1987) did. Emily (1987) storm re-curved after making landfall in Hispaniola, Emily (2011) should continue WNW after that.



You are right is another system at other time... best for the people of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Good night guys
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see that Emily has been doing some organizing.



Good background for the laptop...
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1327. scott39
Quoting scott39:
If the current cordinates are right there is very little convection around Emily.
center
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see that Emily has been doing some organizing.



Hey Storm....Definately looking better!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Quoting lovejessicaa9:
nice looking hurricane

Don't you mean typhoon?
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1324. scott39
If the current cordinates are right there is very little convection around Emily.
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boat and I Sitting in the mangroves near Salinas on the south cost of PR
waiting for Emily. Anybody ever want to ride out a storm on a boat
let me know. But you have to strip the canvas...
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Quoting cwf1069:

Are you in San Juan?


Caguas, S of SJ....
My sister is right now doing temporary work in St. Croix...
It's going to be a little harder there...
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1321. Seawall
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Your right, french isn't my language :P sorry for sabotaging the language for all you frenchies. Good night to all and thank you for once again giving me a great day to listen to some educational information and stories.


Good nite, have a good one.
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1320. GHOSTY1
oh and dont let the bed bugs bite good night all!
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I see that Emily has been doing some organizing.

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Quoting lovejessicaa9:
nice looking hurricane


Typhoon
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I probably shouldn't say this and I should probably be more conservative with how Emily's history has been, but she is impressing me right now. I truly believe her circulation has been drawn into the main area of convection. It's still not directly in the middle. Most likely in the Western half somewhere around 15N. If that's the case, that will throw yet another wrench into the model runs. However, that will most likely lead to an eastward shift in the models. Just speculation on my part right now, but I have a good deal of confidence in what I'm seeing. Wish the HH would get their tails out there already.

445UTC Image:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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