Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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I think its because all the trolls and kids are asleep, but this blog truly shines in the late evening/early morning hours. Kudos to you all.
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Where are you planning on going to college?
Not really sure right now... lot of choices :\
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Under -80C convective tops.

PR floater shows convection developing on the western side and wrapping inwards.

Might not be too dry at the moment.

I think the previous western convective burst that collapsed helped moisten the air to the west and set the stage for the development we are seeing now. It would be something else if recon gets in there and finds the LLC way out to the west...
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1413. scott39
Quoting TomTaylor:
It is.

The eastern side of the storm has much more divergence aloft thanks to the TUTT to the north of the system pulling air out of the top of the system. On the opposite side of the system, the west side, upper level conditions are still divergent, but they are not nearly as divergent as they are on the east side. Additionally, the eastern storm will naturally have more low level convergence as trade winds blow in from the east of the storm, pushing air toward the storm in the low levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the storm the trade winds move away from the storm, making for less low level convergence. I believe the relative effect of this decreases the stronger the storm is, since a stronger storm will have a greater influence on the surrounding trade winds. However, since Emily is still very weak and has been for it's short life the effect of this cant be ruled out. Additionally, the weak MLC may still be hanging around on the east side of the system which has also worked to favor convection on that side of the system.
So the true LLC is where the NHC has it and it continues to move W?
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1412. Seawall
Quoting KoritheMan:
Since I'm about to leave, I'll post my blog one more time.

Kyle, I might not make it on AIM tonight, but I probably will tomorrow.


Thanks for posting; read your blog for the first time. very nice.
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1411. j2008
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just founded this site 2 days ago and wanted to chat about tropics with you guys. I'm in high school, looking for career in meterology and been tracking the storms since I was very young using Weather Channel, but didn't really get deep until this year. I've learned alot more about tornadoes this year with help of few friends at National Weather Service Raleigh. 2011 tornado season had been easily the worst I've seen in 7 years of tracking them. Hopefully I can learn some more as well with hurricanes with you guys helping me out :) Also, one more... I'm deaf, so expect my grammar to be poor.

Your grammer is much better than some people's on here.
Many of us learn alot and give our input about anything Tropical, you're welcome to do the same anytime you want to. Right now we are awaiting the 11PM update on Emily you're welcome to stay and observe with us. Welcome to the Blog.
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Building AC:

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1409. txjac
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just founded this site 2 days ago and wanted to chat about tropics with you guys. I'm in high school, looking for career in meterology and been tracking the storms since I was very young using Weather Channel, but didn't really get deep until this year. I've learned alot more about tornadoes this year with help of few friends at National Weather Service Raleigh. 2011 tornado season had been easily the worst I've seen in 7 years of tracking them. Hopefully I can learn some more as well with hurricanes with you guys helping me out :) Also, one more... I'm deaf, so expect my grammar to be poor.


Welcome, you've found a great place to learn here. Some very knowledgeable folks around here.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just founded this site 2 days ago and wanted to chat about tropics with you guys. I'm in high school, looking for career in meterology and been tracking the storms since I was very young using Weather Channel, but didn't really get deep until this year. I've learned alot more about tornadoes this year with help of few friends at National Weather Service Raleigh. 2011 tornado season had been easily the worst I've seen in 7 years of tracking them. Hopefully I can learn some more as well with hurricanes with you guys helping me out :) Also, one more... I'm deaf, so expect my grammar to be poor.
Welcome to WUnderground! We're all here to help each other, and hopefully we can teach you a lot. If you're new to tropical meteorology I would suggest you bookmark this site I created as it has tons of links to all kinds of helpful sites. I hope I helped!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just founded this site 2 days ago and wanted to chat about tropics with you guys. I'm in high school, looking for career in meterology and been tracking the storms since I was very young using Weather Channel, but didn't really get deep until this year. I've learned alot more about tornadoes this year with help of few friends at National Weather Service Raleigh. 2011 tornado season had been easily the worst I've seen in 7 years of tracking them. Hopefully I can learn some more as well with hurricanes with you guys helping me out :) Also, one more... I'm deaf, so expect my grammar to be poor.


Welcome!
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Convection continues to pulse westward with hints of banding. If the center is where radar suggests, it's under this convection.

Link


Under -80C convective tops.

PR floater shows convection developing on the western side and wrapping inwards.

Might not be too dry at the moment.

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Emily has a healthy burst of convection to the south of the proposed center. Emily has good chance of strengthening through the next 12-24 hours! My prediction is 50 mph or even 55 mph in the next 12 hours!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just founded this site 2 days ago and wanted to chat about tropics with you guys. I'm in high school, looking for career in meterology and been tracking the storms since I was very young using Weather Channel, but didn't really get deep until this year. I've learned alot more about tornadoes this year with help of few friends at National Weather Service Raleigh. 2011 tornado season had been easily the worst I've seen in 7 years of tracking them. Hopefully I can learn some more as well with hurricanes with you guys helping me out :) Also, one more... I'm deaf, so expect my grammar to be poor.


Where are you planning on going to college?
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Quoting scott39:
Who else thinks that Emily has all the convection to the E and almost none to the W?
It is.

The eastern side of the storm has much more divergence aloft thanks to the TUTT to the north of the system pulling air out of the top of the system. On the opposite side of the system, the west side, upper level conditions are still divergent, but they are not nearly as divergent as they are on the east side. Additionally, the eastern storm will naturally have more low level convergence as trade winds blow in from the east of the storm, pushing air toward the storm in the low levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the storm the trade winds move away from the storm, making for less low level convergence. I believe the relative effect of this decreases the stronger the storm is, since a stronger storm will have a greater influence on the surrounding trade winds. However, since Emily is still very weak and has been for it's short life the effect of this cant be ruled out. Additionally, the weak MLC may still be hanging around on the east side of the system which has also worked to favor convection on that side of the system.
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Quoting sailingallover:

we tuck into small protected bays and mangrove creeks for storms..
We call them hurricane holes. The one here in Bahia de hobos in PR are some of the best. I have 20' tall mangroves on three sides the front is only open a few hundred feet to more mangroves, the boat is aground in soft mud. Not very dangerous unless the storm surge goes over 12'


Buoyweather site is reporting for tomorow 9.8 ft. in the south...
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No HH data, I'm off all. No use in tracking the surface in the blind of the night, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
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1400. 7544
here comes your west side convection
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
Quoting msphar:
Running to Jobos seems a bit extreme at this point. I wonder why Sailingallover did that ? Being further West on Puerto Rico brings you closer to the track.

Thoughts ?

would you gamble 160k when you could not win but only lose??
I came to hobos because until yesterday it was supposed to go over Culebra or STT as a Cat 1 or better. The track shifted south yesterday after I was already almost her.
Also I knew if Emily did end up down here it would be because it was weaker as is the case due to the retarded development.
Riding out 60knts no big deal bu the 96 forcasted until yesterdays sucks
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1398. txjac
Quoting sailingallover:

we tuck into small protected bays and mangrove creeks for storms..
We call them hurricane holes. The one here in Bahia de hobos in PR are some of the best. I have 20' tall mangroves on three sides the front is only open a few hundred feet to more mangroves, the boat is aground in soft mud. Not very dangerous unless the storm surge goes over 12'


Awesome, gotta be an interesting life. Stay safe now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just founded this site 2 days ago and wanted to chat about tropics with you guys. I'm in high school, looking for career in meterology and been tracking the storms since I was very young using Weather Channel, but didn't really get deep until this year. I've learned alot more about tornadoes this year with help of few friends at National Weather Service Raleigh. 2011 tornado season had been easily the worst I've seen in 7 years of tracking them. Hopefully I can learn some more as well with hurricanes with you guys helping me out :) Also, one more... I'm deaf, so expect my grammar to be poor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection continues to pulse westward with hints of banding. If the center is where radar suggests, it's under this convection.

Link
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Well not that it matters to me at that price. Would be nice to have but can't justify it.

On GR's website it seems you can still email (whoever it is your supposed to email) and request it- is he no longer taking requests?


Yeah

The site that processes the orders has been giving him a deal of trouble. There have also been some data feed issues.
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1394. scott39
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks to have ingested a large amount of dry air....
Its going to take awhile to recover from that.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


$180/yr

Unfortunately the process of purchasing it has stopped.

Won't be available for some time.


Well not that it matters to me at that price. Would be nice to have but can't justify it.

On GR's website it seems you can still email (whoever it is your supposed to email) and request it- is he no longer taking requests?
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Looks to have ingested a large amount of dry air....
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1391. Hattie
Quoting sailingallover:

thanks for the loops. I can't get them on my iphone.
Maybe we should have a Storm party n Salinas tomorrow
Hi,I am in Canada, and my boat is in Salinas, just hoping the anchors hold,,Good luck.
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1390. scott39
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Holding for the 4:45. My input is that the COC is right on track. Devoid of much convection however, life is growing.

Starting to burst a little around the center.
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For sure, With that rain falling, we will have a good sleep...
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Are we going to get intermediate advisories due to the close proximity of the islands?


Intermediate advisory at 2am.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Are we going to get intermediate advisories due to the close proximity of the islands?
Yes.
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Quoting 7544:
who thinks emily will be stronger on the next 2 am update


If the LLC is just to the west of the islands under that blob of convection, I would say pressures will have dropped- now whether that translates to a increase in wind speed I will not speculate because I truly don't know.
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Quoting txjac:


Dont you get scared being on the water when storms are in the area? That has to be some kind of life. Never have really been on a boat so its hard for me to imagine

we tuck into small protected bays and mangrove creeks for storms..
We call them hurricane holes. The one here in Bahia de hobos in PR are some of the best. I have 20' tall mangroves on three sides the front is only open a few hundred feet to more mangroves, the boat is aground in soft mud. Not very dangerous unless the storm surge goes over 12'
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Quoting texwarhawk:


If you don't mind me asking- what is the annual fee for GREarth. I've been looking into it to go along with the 60 I shelled out for GRLevel3 (well worth the cost)



$180/yr

Unfortunately the process of purchasing it has stopped.

Won't be available for some time.
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1383. msphar
Running to Jobos seems a bit extreme at this point. I wonder why Sailingallover did that ? Being further West on Puerto Rico brings you closer to the track.

Thoughts ?
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Are we going to get intermediate advisories due to the close proximity of the islands?
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1380. j2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I'd guess the center is just west of the islands.


Yup it is, I'm 100% sure. I'm gonna say it will be 45MPH at the next update.
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I'm not too impressed, yet. Big storm, yes. But more organized...no. The next TWO will show same wind speed.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


why would we want that?!


You want a stronger system to move into Hispaniola because the mountains will really disrupt the system. It will get really disorganized, and it will have a tough time organizing again once it emerges back into the Atlantic.

If it stays rather weak, the mountains won't destroy the system completely (inner core won't be impacted as much). If this happens, it could emerge back into the Atlantic and strengthen into a decent cyclone afterwards and possibly impact the United States.

A lot of what if scenarios.
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Since I'm about to leave, I'll post my blog one more time.

Kyle, I might not make it on AIM tonight, but I probably will tomorrow.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I'd guess the center is just west of the islands.



That would confirm what some of us have been thinking...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Holding for the 4:45. My input is that the COC is right on track. Devoid of much convection however, life is growing.

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Quoting Levi32:
Notice the long barrier of 200mb vorticity just north of Emily and the Caribbean. This is what is keeping her outflow from expanding northwestward and somewhat shearing her, keeping the thunderstorm activity east of the center. Now notice the area of strong vorticity off of the Carolinas. That is the trough coming into the western Atlantic to try to pick up Emily. As this trough digs in, the trough north of the Caribbean will get kicked out. With a new, more divergent upper flow situated northwest of Emily associated with the new trough, she will find herself under a more favorable upper-level environment for strengthening in a couple days.

That's a good point. The negative effect of this TUTT should become more significant the more the system moves to the WNW as it will get closer to the TUTT axis.




Although, I would argue that this TUTT is helping the system more than hurting it at the moment. Most of the upper level convergence and sinking, drying, air associated with the TUTT is pretty far from the system. Also, it is clearly allowing convection to take off on the east side of the system as it is pulling air strongly out of the top of the system.
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1373. 7544
who thinks emily will be stronger on the next 2 am update
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
Quoting texwarhawk:


Don't you wish every little spit of land had level 3 radar? America seems to be the most interested in atmospheric research imo. Well maybe not most interested but most easily accessible.


Yeah. lol
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Kori! You online?


Actually, I was about to step out to do my nightly workouts. :/
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If you don't mind me asking- what is the annual fee for GREarth. I've been looking into it to go along with the 60 I shelled out for GRLevel3 (well worth the cost)

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I'd guess the center is just west of the islands.

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Kori! You online?
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1367. 3211976
We just had a very strong feeder band going through San Juan, PR
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
whens recon supposed to go wheels up?
fifty minutes ago....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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