Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting NoVaForecaster:
New to posting here, longtime reader and lurker so I know how this site works (so don't worry, I'm not a troll, wishcaster, clone account or some creepo who posts personal information). Looking forward to many good conversations with you all and will be on a lot for my latest news on here!
glad I'm not the only one new to posting :) I'm looking forward to conversations also.
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New GFDL

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1464. twooks
Quoting NoVaForecaster:
New to posting here, longtime reader and lurker so I know how this site works (so don't worry, I'm not a troll, wishcaster, clone account or some creepo who posts personal information). Looking forward to many good conversations with you all and will be on a lot for my latest news on here!


Welcome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1463. Seawall
Quoting MississippiWx:
Right now would not be the best time for recon to scrub a mission considering that we might be having a center reformation and a quick jump in intensity.


I think they are getting close to passing the new debt deal; Park Services, everything getting a good whacking. I think they cut the NHC, and didn't tell anyone about it until tonight... probably cut their fuel back....

j/k but it could be true.
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1461. scott39
Looks like from the maps that Emily is ingesting dry air, and it also looks like it is getting sheared from W to E over the top of the LLC.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Ok.. I suggested a similiar point last night..how storms can sort of "point", if you will, to where they are headed and was "shamed" into lurk mode..hahaha..oh well..maybe I'm not so crazy...Whew!


In a sheared atmosphere the convection is always attracted to the main low center. In this case, being relatively close, it will pulse towards the center then shear pushes it back, then again.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Ok.. I suggested a similiar point last night..how storms can sort of "point", if you will, to where they are headed and was "shamed" into lurk mode..hahaha..oh well..maybe I'm not so crazy...Whew!


lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
is everyone in agreement that the trof will be strong enough to lift emily northwardish?
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Quoting IceCoast:
New HWRF
Wow... 80 knots offshore of Carolinas? Am I reading it correctly?
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Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:

Thank you Stormchaser! That's exactly where I was looking. So, the center isn't fully closed at the surface? I've been watching that loop for some time now, and it looks like it is beginning to fill in. Would that assumption be correct?


It would appear to be closed. I'm not sure how defined it is since radar can only tell so much.

Would be great to have recon in there.
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Right now would not be the best time for recon to scrub a mission considering that we might be having a center reformation and a quick jump in intensity.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I personally think it is the action of a single person.


That is probably a very accurate assessment lol!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
5:15

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Thank you Stormchaser! That's exactly where I was looking. So, the center isn't fully closed at the surface? I've been watching that loop for some time now, and it looks like it is beginning to fill in. Would that assumption be correct?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Convection continues to build to the devoid center. The convection is pointing out where it's headed.

Ok.. I suggested a similiar point last night..how storms can sort of "point", if you will, to where they are headed and was "shamed" into lurk mode..hahaha..oh well..maybe I'm not so crazy...Whew!
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Right now would not be the best time for recon to scrub a mission considering that we might be having a center reformation and a quick jump in intensity.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting midgulfmom:
Just lurkimg now but indeed more civility... nice. :)


Nights are good....some great people in this blog but hard to notice them during day. Especially if you have a severe allergy to drama as I am told I have!!

I can not imagine how crazy this blog will be with a landfalling bubbacane!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Will be interesting what TS Emily will do as this is one strange system. As for now, it's the best to get some shut eyes and get ready for crazy day tomorrow.

BTW, how do you get profile picture?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Night shift much better.....less drama!!!


I personally think it is the action of a single person.
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Quoting Seawall:


I live in Louisiana, and Monroe is a great town, and that's a good school. Congrats to ya.


Thank you, can't wait to be back- I love Houston, but Monroe is my little spot for relaxation (amazing to think if your going to school there lol)
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 020537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND
IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceCoast:
New HWRF


ohhh thats fun...
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I know it's really hard to tell but is it possible/probably the LLC has repositioned underneath the convection where it seems to be on Martinique radar?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


canceled?
Either that or they're having trouble communicating.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1441. Seawall
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well not to do any recruiting or anything, well I guess I do lol, I would look into University of Louisiana at Monroe, where I go. It's a nice little university (~10,000 students), and a lot cheaper to go to then the major meteorology/atmospheric science schools (that offer undergrad) such as Penn and OU. I know of many out of state students- such as myself from Texas, and people from Maryland and Pennsylvania- who are paying a lot less. ULM offers in-state tuition to out-of-state students and the the requirements for such are not very hard. There are about 20 undergrad students per year so you will have a good relationship with your professors who are very knowledgeable and fun to be around. I didn't find out about it until my senior year and am very glad I went to school there and am having the best time of my life there. Just a place to add to your list.


I live in Louisiana, and Monroe is a great town, and that's a good school. Congrats to ya.
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New HWRF
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Night shift much better.....less drama!!!
Just lurkimg now but indeed more civility... nice. :)
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Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
Someone please help me with that Martinique radar! I think I may be looking for the wrong thing. I'm just not seeing a clearly defined center of circulation... There's deff a broad rotation, but where I'm looking for the center to be is basically thunderstorm free. Am I misinterpreting the radar data??


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Convection continues to build to the devoid center. The convection is pointing out where it's headed.

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Lack of recon is quite disappointing.
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1435. scott39
I think Emily is going to stay a weak tropical storm while its in the E Caribbean, and the trough is going to miss it.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No recon. Bleh.



Yeah, lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No recon. Bleh.


canceled?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone please help me with that Martinique radar! I think I may be looking for the wrong thing. I'm just not seeing a clearly defined center of circulation... There's deff a broad rotation, but where I'm looking for the center to be is basically thunderstorm free. Am I misinterpreting the radar data??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaTigers:
I think its because all the trolls and kids are asleep, but this blog truly shines in the late evening/early morning hours. Kudos to you all.


Night shift much better.....less drama!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Quoting Bluestorm5:
On topic: I'm wondering why HH datas isn't showing on their site or on Google Earth? Thought it's supposed to take off at 12:30 am?


Im not sure what happened.

Would be a shame if it was scrubbed. Next one isn't for six more hours.
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1429. Titoxd
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND
IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not really sure right now... lot of choices :\


Well not to do any recruiting or anything, well I guess I do lol, I would look into University of Louisiana at Monroe, where I go. It's a nice little university (~10,000 students), and a lot cheaper to go to then the major meteorology/atmospheric science schools (that offer undergrad) such as Penn and OU. I know of many out of state students- such as myself from Texas, and people from Maryland and Pennsylvania- who are paying a lot less. ULM offers in-state tuition to out-of-state students and the the requirements for such are not very hard. There are about 20 undergrad students per year so you will have a good relationship with your professors who are very knowledgeable and fun to be around. I didn't find out about it until my senior year and am very glad I went to school there and am having the best time of my life there. Just a place to add to your list.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No recon. Bleh.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2:00 AM AST Tue Aug 2
Location: 15.5°N 63.5°W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1425. scott39
Ive been fooled more than once when a TC is in the developing phase, and there is a big blob of convection turning thinking its a new LLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1424. msphar
Interesting, I'm just sitting at Rosey Roads, waiting it out. This one just didn;t seem that big a concern.
Good Luck, I like Jobos, thats where my icon picture was taken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
On topic: I'm wondering why HH datas isn't showing on their site or on Google Earth? Thought it's supposed to take off at 12:30 am?


It was, but its not on the nhc site either, might not have taken off yet due to a technical difficulty, seem we have been having a lot this year, need to get them revamped.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1422. Ryuujin
I've got to head off as well, but I must say that Emily is looking far better now than she ever has.

Of course, having said that, she'll completely fall apart by morning, knowing my prognosticating skills.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND
IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 259
Quoting scott39:
So the true LLC is where the NHC has it and it continues to move W?
Honestly, it's impossible to say as the LLC is covered under intense convection at the moment and visible satellite loops are unavailable since it is nighttime. Additionally, recon hasn't been out in a while. I heard some were saying recon is going out tonight...not really sure if that's still true or not.

If it is then we can get a better idea of where the LLC is, but for now we will just have to trust the NHC's positioning as there is no other evidence to use and, after all, they're the experts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1419. 7544
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Emily has a healthy burst of convection to the south of the proposed center. Emily has good chance of strengthening through the next 12-24 hours! My prediction is 50 mph or even 55 mph in the next 12 hours!


might be already there shes popping now and dmax in 20 min
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On topic: I'm wondering why HH datas isn't showing on their site or on Google Earth? Thought it's supposed to take off at 12:30 am?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think its because all the trolls and kids are asleep, but this blog truly shines in the late evening/early morning hours. Kudos to you all.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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