Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Should Emily pay me a visit in Miami, I'm definitely gonna be blogging.

Considering the fact that I lost power during the tropical thunderstorm known as Bonnie, I'll probably have to start blogging from my phone as soon as the outer bands start approaching, LOL.


Well we at least have South and Northwest Florida covered!!
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1515. Walshy
Test
Test
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Still learning about tropics... what do this mean?
Emily will want to follow the energy left behind from that trough. Considering the split is in the Gulf, guess where Emily is gonna wanna go?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting scott39:
If Emily was just a little bit farther S, she would be developing alot faster. I think the wind shear to the N is keeping her from taking off.
At the moment, yea the TUTT is probably the biggest inhibitor for development. It is greatly helping convection flourish to the east. However, it is also providing upper level convergence, subsidence, and dry air far to the NW of the system which Emily will have to deal with later. Also, it is providing shear to the north. There is still divergence in the upper levels on the immediate NW side of Emily, but it's not nearly as significant as it is on the east side. This may have also been part of the reason why this system has been so disorganized over the last few days as noted by the mid level circulation staying back to the east.

Later down the road, land interaction should be the biggest inhibitor.
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Until the power goes out right-- unless you have an iphone then you can blog throughout-- sure would be interesting getting blog updates from someone in it.


Have all the experience with the big storms I want...BUT if we get another.....WE are ready...generators, batteries, inverters.....The party would be ON!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


will have to shift to a different blog if volume gets too high...Heck if it hits my place I will start a Hurricane party blog!!
Should Emily pay me a visit in Miami, I'm definitely gonna be blogging.

Considering the fact that I lost power during the tropical thunderstorm known as Bonnie, I'll probably have to start blogging from my phone as soon as the outer bands start approaching, LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
lol
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Quoting emguy:
Rhut-Rho...may be detecting the beginnings of a trough split based on the East CONUS Water vapor loop. Watch over eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and north Georgia. This could be important if it evolves.
Still learning about tropics... what do this mean?
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Quoting TomTaylor:



Will that TUTT be moving out of the way before then or will Emily get its act together before then to better combat that dry air. I personally believe that any intensification is possible, models don't seem to have good enough input data to accurately predict changes in intensification in young systems in my opinion.
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1505. JLPR2
Buoy at: 16.333 N 63.500 W
Is Emily really that close to this buoy?
If the center is really at 63.5W then Emily is not a TS.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
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42060 B 0450 16.33 -63.50 0 0 60 23.3 27.2 7.9 7 5.5 - 29.81 -0.04 82.4 84.2 76.6
Buoy 42060 about 80 miles NE of Emily, winds ENE at 23 gusting 31, 1009MB and falling.Waves 9 feet and increasing.
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1503. emguy
Rhut-Rho...may be detecting the beginnings of a trough split based on the East CONUS Water vapor loop. Watch over eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and north Georgia. This could be important if it evolves.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


will have to shift to a different blog if volume gets too high...Heck if it hits my place I will start a Hurricane party blog!!
Yea! I'm in..
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1163
Quoting texwarhawk:
Don't know if this has been posted but it seems Emily's environment (with regard to sheer and even dry air to some extent) has become less volatile--

Sheer Tendency


Atlantic Wide View Water Vapor

7hrs ago:


45min ago:
Shear has dropped on both sides of the system according to that CIMSS map. I agree upper level conditions will become slightly less favorable as it gets closer to the TUTT axis. The closer it gets to the TUTT axis, the more upper level winds will be pushing toward the system, creating upper level convergence, causing air to sink and dry out in response. This can already be seen to the north of the greater Antilles. This is where the TUTT axis is located and dry air, and upper level convergence can already be seen there now






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Quoting traumaboyy:


will have to shift to a different blog if volume gets too high...Heck if it hits my place I will start a Hurricane party blog!!


Until the power goes out right-- unless you have an iphone then you can blog throughout-- sure would be interesting getting blog updates from someone in it.
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1498. scott39
If Emily was just a little bit farther S, she would be developing alot faster. I think the wind shear to the N is keeping her from taking off.
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Quoting IceCoast:

Ya right about 80knots. Wouldn't put to much faith in it, a long ways out and the models are disagreeing right now.
Yea, I was wondering. I've been seeing models moving alot in past 36 hours or so. I'm waiting until it get over Hispaniola. Since I live in Raleigh, I'm watching this system closely. Haven't been in a hurricane before.
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Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



so the 6z just came out ?


Well 6Z would be run time (in respect to models) -- the time they publish it is later (different for every model) this is a good page for learning publish times
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Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:



so the 6z just came out ?
6z model plots will be coming in about 30-45 minutes.

Global models take much longer however.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Emily appears to be racing W still.

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Quoting midgulfmom:
I know what you mean. I really don't care for mean-spirited attacks, bashing others or put-downs,etc. So totally un-called for. Any you are right, many great people on here, esp. at night... Oh! and a landfalling cane..NO WORDS MY FRIEND...LOL


will have to shift to a different blog if volume gets too high...Heck if it hits my place I will start a Hurricane party blog!!
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I might be too late but night Progressive.. Look forward to your insightful posts...tks
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1163
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
can any1 quickyl explain all thoose 12000z times and 0000z times


Z time is Zulu time Or GMT time (in 24hr clock) EDT is -4hrs therefore if it is 2 am Eastern Daylight savings time (like it is now) it is 6AM GMT time or 0600Z
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
0z is 8p.m EDT.
6z is 2a.m EDT.
12z is 8a.m EDT.
18z is 2p.m EDT.



so the 6z just came out ?
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1487. Seawall
Good night all, and thanks for the great images and comments. It was much better than last night's front row seating for the melt down...
Don't ban me, please.. LOL
On topic, Emily looks better on the IR.
And I have a dog named Emmee... I call her Willie, don't ask me why.
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1486. scott39
Quoting texwarhawk:
Don't know if this has been posted but it seems Emily's environment (with regard to sheer and even dry air to some extent) has become less volatile--

Sheer Tendency


Atlantic Wide View Water Vapor

7hrs ago:


45min ago:
Convection looks to be going around the center now.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


In a sheared atmosphere the convection is always attracted to the main low center. In this case, being relatively close, it will pulse towards the center then shear pushes it back, then again.
OK..I think I sort of get it...Just points to me tho..LOL but really thanks!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1163
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
can any1 quickyl explain all thoose 12000z times and 0000z times
0z is 8p.m EDT.
6z is 2a.m EDT.
12z is 8a.m EDT.
18z is 2p.m EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
CAN SOMEOne plz tell me were i can find all the latest up to date models


More Technical


Wunderground's page

(Click on storm then computer models)
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1482. emguy
GFDL looks like it initialized too far to the north. Maybe by about 100 miles or so if you trust the Martinique radar.
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can any1 quickyl explain all thoose 12000z times and 0000z times
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Don't know if this has been posted but it seems Emily's environment (with regard to sheer and even dry air to some extent) has become less volatile--

Sheer Tendency


Atlantic Wide View Water Vapor

7hrs ago:


45min ago:
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Nights are good....some great people in this blog but hard to notice them during day. Especially if you have a severe allergy to drama as I am told I have!!

I can not imagine how crazy this blog will be with a landfalling bubbacane!!
I know what you mean. I really don't care for mean-spirited attacks, bashing others or put-downs,etc. So totally un-called for. Any you are right, many great people on here, esp. at night... Oh! and a landfalling cane..NO WORDS MY FRIEND...LOL
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1163
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Might head out soon if recon is truly scrubbed.



1st mission had com issues. I doubt they would scrub it being this close to land.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
1477. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's only right that the GFDL does a 180˚ turn from the last run and now develops Emily into a hurricane.

Makes sooo much sense! LOL
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow... 80 knots offshore of Carolinas? Am I reading it correctly?

Ya right about 80knots. Wouldn't put to much faith in it, a long ways out and the models are disagreeing right now.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Might head out soon if recon is truly scrubbed.

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Quoting Seawall:


I think they are getting close to passing the new debt deal; Park Services, everything getting a good whacking. I think they cut the NHC, and didn't tell anyone about it until tonight... probably cut their fuel back....

j/k but it could be true.


+1
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Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
CAN SOMEOne plz tell me were i can find all the latest up to date models


Every link you will ever need...
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1472. cwf1069
The center appear to come into view now on Puerto Rico's radar on the se side.
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It's only right that the GFDL does a 180˚ turn from the last run and now develops Emily into a hurricane.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good morning all.
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Push sleep for recon, no recon data. Win some, lose some. Night all.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
CAN SOMEOne plz tell me were i can find all the latest up to date models
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1467. Seawall
Quoting NoVaForecaster:
New to posting here, longtime reader and lurker so I know how this site works (so don't worry, I'm not a troll, wishcaster, clone account or some creepo who posts personal information). Looking forward to many good conversations with you all and will be on a lot for my latest news on here!


Welcome aboard, looking forward to your blogging.
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:
New to posting here, longtime reader and lurker so I know how this site works (so don't worry, I'm not a troll, wishcaster, clone account or some creepo who posts personal information). Looking forward to many good conversations with you all and will be on a lot for my latest news on here!
glad I'm not the only one new to posting :) I'm looking forward to conversations also.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.