Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting Levi32:


Correct, because both a tropical storm and a hurricane are tropical cyclones, just of different intensities.


I just find it strange that the blog updater doesn't understand the difference... the same mistake was made on the previous blog.
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I am expecting a West and south shift with the track between now and 2/8/11/18Z
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I doubt that the cyclone will dissipate over the mountains of Hispañola like the GFDL indicates, but some modest weakening seems likely.


I have seen MUCH stronger, and better organized storms than Emily bite the proverbial dust over the mountains of Hispañola...... so I would not be so sure about your prediction..... The GFDL is certainly a "reasonable" solution...... one of many.....
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61. wpb
Quoting ncstorm:
So the GFS is back on the east side again..this is really a wait and see situation..
link
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The only people to really listen to on this blog are the ones who tell you to OBEY and HEED all warnings from National Hurricane Center and your local NWS Offices after they have given give their opinions


Well I understand your point and its well taken and the majority of time accurate, but if we in Grand Cayman in 2004 had heeded and followed the official track of Ivan from our local officials as directed ( I guess) by the NHC" cone", alot more would have probably lost their lives, instead the vast majority followed their common sense and judgment by watching and observing , knowing it would just not make that sudden turn, just saying, not criticizing your comment because its accurate for the most part, just noting there are exceptions.
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So the GFS is back on the east side again..this is really a wait and see situation..
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Quoting robj144:


I guess that's what I meant. So in the latest blog update for the intensity forecast - it's anywhere between a tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane... not between a tropical cyclone and a moderate 1 category hurricane.


Correct, because both a tropical storm and a hurricane are tropical cyclones, just of different intensities.
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55. wpb
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks for the update.

18z GFDL kills it over Hispañola.


hispanols has a history of doing just that

hurricane debbie tr 2000
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UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 AUG 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 15:12:36 N Lon : 62:03:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1011.8mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : -61.1C Cloud Region Temp : -48.6C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.2 degrees
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Complete Update

The one following it is going to be interesting also :)


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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T.C.F.W.
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.23N/62.08W
TRACK
15.8N/64.7W
16.3N/65.3W
16.8N/65.9W
17.1N/66.3W
17.7N/66.8W
18.2N/67.3W


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Quoting smuldy:
that is for eugene just in case anyone else was having a huh moment thinking it was emily
Wow! I didn't notice that until after I posted it and checked twice. IKE where is that coffee?!? Sorry for the confusion folks.
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Quoting Levi32:
Thanks Angela.

Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season. It is very fragile with a lot of details involved. Very slight tweaks in intensity and track in the short-term could result in much larger ramifications down the line. Expect things to fluctuate in the forecasts during the coming days. Everyone in the areas threatened by this storm should be prepared, even if the track doesn't point directly to you right now.



Does this include the western GOM?
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Westward!
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Quoting Levi32:


A tropical cyclone can be a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a hurricane. These three are subcategories of the category of "tropical cyclone."


I guess that's what I meant. So in the latest blog update for the intensity forecast - it's anywhere between a tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane... not between a tropical cyclone and a moderate 1 category hurricane.
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I know everyone wants to talk about Emily but is the system at 10 & 37 our next strom?
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Quoting robj144:
Isn't a tropical cyclone the same as a hurricane?


No. A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone.
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Quoting robj144:
Isn't a tropical cyclone the same as a hurricane?

All hurricanes are tropical cyclones, but not all tropical cyclones are hurricanes, It depends on both how strong the storm is, and where it is.
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Quoting robj144:
Isn't a tropical cyclone the same as a hurricane?


A tropical cyclone can be a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a hurricane. These three are subcategories of the category of "tropical cyclone."
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Quoting scott39:
Dont you think the Eastern Caribbean ,and land interaction will keep Emily tame?
Mid-level dry air is currently the only major problem that Emily is facing. Once it reaches Hispañola then that will be another problem in itself.

I doubt that the cyclone will dissipate over the mountains of Hispañola like the GFDL indicates, but some modest weakening seems likely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MississippiWx:


Do you just sit on the blog page and press refresh until a new blog post comes up? You seem to be the one who notifies the rest of us of a new one each time. :-D

You are the man.

I get lucky, mostly. Though I do web application development at times, so I have a few tricks at my disposal... ;-)
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Isn't a tropical cyclone the same as a hurricane?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see some things never change when it comes to DOOM-Casting Chips ensemble blows it up to a 130 knot Category 4 Hurricane in 12 hrs. what's next 2012?
that is for eugene just in case anyone else was having a huh moment thinking it was emily
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Quoting Levi32:
Thanks Angela.

Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season. It is very fragile with a lot of details involved. Very slight tweaks in intensity and track in the short-term could result in much larger ramifications down the line. Expect things to fluctuate in the forecasts during the coming days. Everyone in the areas threatened by this storm should be prepared, even if the track doesn't point directly to you right now.


Levi...this is the most profound and grown up thing i think i have ever read on this blog in response to something that anyone in Admin has posted...thank you for that...it shows a true understanding of what ALL forecasters go thru...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The only people to really listen to on this blog are the ones who tell you to OBEY and HEED all warnings from National Hurricane Center and your local NWS Offices after they have given give their opinions



Amen! Amen! and Amen!
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Never been impressed with Martinique radar...... but here it is anyway! LOL

Martinique radar

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Quoting Patrap:
Now and tomorrow iz a good time to review ones family Emg Plan,,and supplies.
yup...I have a meeting tomorrow on that very subject regarding the Diocese of Charleston (which includes the whole state) and we're using print outs of your blog as a resource
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Quoting jasonlovetropicals:
Good job Angela I LOVE YOU


O_o
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-
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks for the update.

18z GFDL kills it over Hispañola.
Dont you think the Eastern Caribbean ,and land interaction will keep Emily tame?
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Thanks Angela.

Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season. It is very fragile with a lot of details involved. Very slight tweaks in intensity and track in the short-term could result in much larger ramifications down the line. Expect things to fluctuate in the forecasts during the coming days. Everyone in the areas threatened by this storm should be prepared, even if the track doesn't point directly to you right now.
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The only people to really listen to on this blog are the ones who tell you to OBEY and HEED all warnings from National Hurricane Center and your local NWS Offices after they have given give their opinions
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23. bwat
Thank you Dr. Masters.....oops, I'm sorry, thank you Angela!
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Now and tomorrow iz a good time to review ones family Emg Plan,,and supplies.
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20. IKE

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Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Preparation 2011




Thanks Patrap
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Tough slog for a mere TS to make it over Hispanola with enough juice to keep going. Still, look to SC on Monday afternoon
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Meh I actually wanted a minor TS over PR. Boo. XD!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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