Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's ridiculous, and the Admins are just like "Oh ok, no problem, we'll just let him post."

4th time I ignored him today. I agree. Admins do need to do something with him. It's extremely annoying.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Well "Emily" has decided to come out of hiding. Problem is that most have no clue what she is going to do? I have consistently said that I expected her to go further west than the earlier models which were saying the storm was going to re-curve. Right now I bet we are going to get the storm further west and into the gulf.

The wave at 10N 36W is also looking better!
You did and I agree... Why would it curve drastically back to sea? Maybe there is a good reason but I don't see it. I am just a watcher tho...
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Repost from last page since the blog is moving so fast...

18z NAM has a track through 54 hours that is very believable to me. The current speed at which Emily is moving will keep her on a more westerly course for the next day or so. Laugh if you must, but the NAM has done fairly well with tropical systems this year. It's ability to see smaller scale systems really helped with Bret and Don. Anyway, Emily is much larger than those two ever were, but the NAM still has the right idea.

54hr NAM:



18z GFS is already wrong in my opinion. At the same time frame (54hr), it has Emily close to landfall in the DR. The GFS seems to be underestimating the current speed of Emily, which is fairly quick to the west.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting BahaHurican:
No... but a hurricane is the same as a TC.... confused? A hurricane is only one type of tropical cyclone. The wiki article on tropical cyclone is actually quite informative and largely accurate...


Thanks, I know, but the person updating the blog does not.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@Levi32: What are your thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily, intensity and track wise?

Thanks.


I like the idea of a gradually strengthening tropical storm until landfall somewhere on Hispaniola as it gradually curves northwest. Thereafter, it's very hard to predict how well Emily will survive the crossing. This will be crucial to track and intensity afterwards. Weaker storms have more potential to strengthen after crossing Hispaniola, if they survive. Hurricanes generally don't strengthen again after such an ordeal, unless they move into the Gulf of Mexico or out to sea where they have a lot of time over water.
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Does everyone have to announce when they ignore someone? Like the rest of the blog really cares who you ignore. Hit the stupid button and move on.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do realize it has 2 days before any landfall in Florida. On top of that the waters are very warm in the Bahamas and the islands there would do nothing to hurt the intensity.

A lot can happen in 2 days


2 days? On the official cone, they have around Saturday making landfall.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
How well I remember Fredrick.Hope to never see another storm like that again.
Power out FOR 2 WEEKS!!!
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Definitely think a lot depends on how strong Emily is when she crosses over Hispanola, the tighter the core is the better chance it has of decoupling in the mountains.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do realize it has 2 days before any landfall in Florida. On top of that the waters are very warm in the Bahamas and the islands there would do nothing to hurt the intensity.

A lot can happen in 2 days


i.e. Rapid Intensification.

I think there is a good chance that it does once it gets there. Dry air is the only problem it may have to deal with, with RH values as low as 50% and below.
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Quoting robj144:
Isn't a tropical cyclone the same as a hurricane?
No... but a hurricane is the same as a TC.... confused? A hurricane is only one type of tropical cyclone. The wiki article on tropical cyclone is actually quite informative and largely accurate...
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Contact an admin to IP ban him then >_>
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's ridiculous, and the Admins are just like "Oh ok, no problem, we'll just let him post."



am up too 17 of his little names
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Actually the stronger storm would be more disrupted than a weaker one would

Remember Fay? she formed over Hispaniola and survived the mountains
That's a really good example.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
all I can say if going by the models they sure have a "stiff" for Florida!
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Quoting twooks:
TBH I don't see it reaching it hurricane strength after crossing hisponla. That doesn't make any sense. BUT as the NHC, they do have low-confidence in the intensity atm lol.


you do realize it has 2 days before any landfall in Florida. On top of that the waters are very warm in the Bahamas and the islands there would do nothing to hurt the intensity.

A lot can happen in 2 days
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Quoting bradbarry27:


From other blog. Storms do survive crossing Hispanola. One of the worst examples is Frederic. The most expensive hurricane in the US until Hugo in '89.

How well I remember Fredrick.Hope to never see another storm like that again.
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000
URNT12 KNHC 020026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912011
A. 01/23:05:50Z
B. 14 deg 58 min N
061 deg 15 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 094 deg 9 nm
F. 208 deg 26 kt
G. 095 deg 11 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 24 C / 310 m
J. 25 C / 312 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 04EEA INVEST OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 23:39:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
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Quoting Ameister12:

Stop making accounts! You're filling up my ignore list.


It's ridiculous, and the Admins are just like "Oh ok, no problem, we'll just let him post."
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:


hurricane ike is a prime example in how tracks can change, ike changed drastically, from threatening the miami area as a cat 4 to only causing waves.


Floyd is the scariest miss to me... a monster 155 mph storm the size of Texas barreling toward Palm Beach County, then turns and runs parallel to FLA. I remember only getting some showers at its closest approach.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Mid-level dry air is currently the only major problem that Emily is facing. Once it reaches Hispañola then that will be another problem in itself.

I doubt that the cyclone will dissipate over the mountains of Hispañola like the GFDL indicates, but some modest weakening seems likely.


GFDL likely dissipates because it hit's Hispaniola as a very weak storm on that run.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The only people to really listen to on this blog are the ones who tell you to OBEY and HEED all warnings from National Hurricane Center and your local NWS Offices after they have given give their opinions


Yes! ++++ a billion. These aren't anything to play with.
Please be prepared and aware. Don't forget to check on any neighbors who may not be able to help themselves. Now's a good a time as any to introduce yourself if you haven't met them already. Just read this. So please listen to all warnings!

DNA testing ID's body of final unidentified Ike victim
Comments 2
July 31, 2011 10:12 AM
Scott Lawrence

CRYSTAL BEACH - DNA testing has identified a Crystal Beach woman who had remained the last unidentified victim of Hurricane Ike, according to the Houston Chronicle.

Susan Shealy died in the storm that made landfall September 13, 2008. A volunteer at the Laura Recovery Center said Shealy's niece told her Saturday that a lab made a positive analysis by comparing Shealy's DNA with that of a relative in South Carolina.

Shealy's body was found about on Pelican Island about two weeks after Hurricane Ike hit Southeast Texas.

Two other women remain unaccounted for.

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18z NAM has a track through 54 hours that is very believable to me. The current speed at which Emily is moving will keep her on a more westerly course for the next day or so. Laugh if you must, but the NAM has done fairly well with tropical systems this year. It's ability to see smaller scale systems really helped with Bret and Don. Anyway, Emily is much larger than those two ever were, but the NAM still has the right idea.

54hr NAM:



18z GFS is already wrong in my opinion. At the same time frame (54hr), it has Emily close to landfall in the DR. The GFS seems to be underestimating the current speed of Emily, which is fairly quick to the west.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting bradbarry27:


From other blog. Storms do survive crossing Hispanola. One of the worst examples is Frederic. The most expensive hurricane in the US until Hugo in '89.

Didnt know that about Frederic. I was in the middle of that one.
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I'm expecting a 10-20 mph drop in intensity once it crosses over Hispaniola. Will have to see how strong it is once it gets there...
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TBH I don't see it reaching it hurricane strength after crossing hisponla. That doesn't make any sense. BUT as the NHC, they do have low-confidence in the intensity atm lol.
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Quoting thelmores:


I have seen MUCH stronger, and better organized storms than Emily bite the proverbial dust over the mountains of Hispañola...... so I would not be so sure about your prediction..... The GFDL is certainly a "reasonable" solution...... one of many.....
Strength isn't much of a player...actually a weaker system tends to survive mountains better than an intense one would.

I don't know why for sure, but it is a trend I've noticed.

Quoting afj3:

Is the GFDL a good model for intensity? Doesn't it tend to overshoot or undershoot strength despite it being reliable (and timely) for track forecasts?
The GFDL is a decent model. Not really the best out there. It does barrow some information from the GFS as well.

As far as intensity on the model, it does tend to either blow up the system, or just kill it. Not really a median with it most of the time lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting jasoniscoolman2013:
Tropical Storm Emily is looking good new update at 11pm maybe her winds will go up

Stop making accounts! You're filling up my ignore list.
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This is getting annoying. 10 of the last 15 ppl I've ignored have the jason handle.
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When is the next recon flight? 2AM?
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Quoting scott39:
If it goes over those mountains....it will kill it!


From other blog. Storms do survive crossing Hispanola. One of the worst examples is Frederic. The most expensive hurricane in the US until Hugo in '89.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't like this...



But the "cone" will change over the next five days...

img src="Hurricane Ike">


You figure the amount that it changes from day to day would go down over the years though since, supposedly, the models errors are being reduced every year as they are refined.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't like this...



But the "cone" will change over the next five days...

img src="Hurricane Ike">


Kinda why I prefer the cone with no line.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't like this...



But the "cone" will change over the next five days...

img src="Hurricane Ike">


hurricane ike is a prime example in how tracks can change, ike changed drastically, from threatening the miami area as a cat 4 to only causing waves.
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Ridge eroding around 66W 24N?

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Well "Emily" has decided to come out of hiding. Problem is that most have no clue what she is going to do? I have consistently said that I expected her to go further west than the earlier models which were saying the storm was going to re-curve. Right now I bet we are going to get the storm further west and into the gulf.

The wave at 10N 36W is also looking better!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@Levi32: What are your thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily, intensity and track wise?

Thanks.
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I see S Florida is under the 5 day forecast. That's good because we "know" it won't hit us now.
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What do you guys think of the chance that it'll shoot the gap between Hispanola and Cuba, and if it does what will that do to the intensity models? This is going to be fascinating and slightly worrisome to watch.
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Don't like this...



But the "cone" will change over the next five days...

img src="Hurricane Ike">
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T Y Angela!
Question, Had the models enough time to digest the upgrade? Were they not processing this, as an invest?
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Quoting thelmores:


I have seen MUCH stronger, and better organized storms than Emily bite the proverbial dust over the mountains of Hispañola...... so I would not be so sure about your prediction..... The GFDL is certainly a "reasonable" solution...... one of many.....


Actually the stronger storm would be more disrupted than a weaker one would

Remember Fay? she formed over Hispaniola and survived the mountains
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Emily's ATCF file has been fixed/updated:

AL, 05, 2011080200, , BEST, 0, 153N, 622W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60,
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67. afj3
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Mid-level dry air is currently the only major problem that Emily is facing. Once it reaches Hispañola then that will be another problem in itself.

I doubt that the cyclone will dissipate over the mountains of Hispañola like the GFDL indicates, but some modest weakening seems likely.

Is the GFDL a good model for intensity? Doesn't it tend to overshoot or undershoot strength despite it being reliable (and timely) for track forecasts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.