Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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I just made a new blog entry on Emily, check it out.
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Quoting ElConando:
Is current movement North of Due West? (I don't mean WNW).


Tropical Storm Emily is moving at 275 degrees.
West is 270 degrees.
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164. IKE

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By the way a friend keeps on telling me there are 3 areas to watch. I know it Emily and that wave that came off of Africa but where's the 3rd?
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:05:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°58'N 61°15'W (14.9667N 61.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the SSE (158°) from Roseau, Dominica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 208° at 26kts (From the SSW at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 312m (1,024ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Was a bust day for them.
Job well done!!!!



You mean it was a busy day for them Lol! Funny how the word bust actually sort of worked in that sentence and context.
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160. bwat
Levi, I hate to bother you, but I know that you made your own tropical forecast videos in the past. Do you still do that? If you do can I please get the link? I have got a new laptop recently because my screen went out and I lost all my bookmarks. Thanks.
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PcolaDan:

Thanks for the heads up about the new blog, sorry about that. I got distracted, apparently there were 3 pit bulls on the loose - hopefully that means she is NOT coming to Tampa. (they did scare all the ants away however)
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Quoting robj144:


Quoting from the blog:

"General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast."


there's no inconsistency in that post....it can be a tropical cyclone without being a hurricane...further...you might wanna check out her credentials before you mouth off about what she 'knows'.....although I'll concede she DID attend Georgia Tech...which is certainly a stain on her record....
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Hmm... i think the EPAC season will be all hurricane and no tropical storm and depressions
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Actually passed very near the south coast of Grand Cayman.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:


where are you from let me guess florida lol


No, I'm from Southeastern North Carolina.

And if you are implying that I'm wishcasting for RI to take place, you're mistaken.
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so is the blog discounting the GFS..did something happen because this isnt west..this is going back east?

Link

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Quoting ncstorm:
well this just narrows it down..



Yes, that settles it! LOL
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Is current movement North of Due West? (I don't mean WNW).
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey Taz, the entire Peninsula of FL. is in the cone or uncertainty, *cough* ack I mean cone of DOOM.


ok
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Quoting ncstorm:
well this just narrows it down..



Looks like Emily has a history of becoming a major hurricane. Let's hope this streak does not continue, for the USA's sake.
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Quoting violet312s:
I feel bad for any legitimate poster named Jason who manages to wander in here.

And yes I prefer the cone without the line too. Makes people either a) panic or b) think they are fine.


Its pretty easy to IP ban the person even if he's using different routers and proxies if you're a site admin. Just need to contact the admins. By the way anyone know where that feature is? (reporting on people button)
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Quoting scott39:
Power out FOR 2 WEEKS!!!
Exactly and we lost everything in that Storm.I have never seen my dad cry,but when he saw what had happened to our home he just weeped beyond control.Very sad indeed.
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Link
kinda looks like hurricane dennis huh?
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
i really hope it misses haiti they cant deal with something like this right now...hoping it makes its turn so florida can take the full brunt of emily ...by that time she could be approaching cat 3...you guys will get what you want...so everyone can be happy campers...


Wrong. I don't feel like spending the weekend setting up RedCross shelters up and down the NE Fla coastine.
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Quoting Tazmanian:


wish means FL is DOOM?
Hey Taz, the entire Peninsula of FL. is in the cone or uncertainty, *cough* ack I mean cone of DOOM.
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That ridge above Emily keeps getting stronger and stronger which should keep her on a more westerly path. I am predicting a turn north on the very eastern tip of Hispaniola or the western tip of Cuba, being more of a threat to the Keys and southern tip of Florida. Thoughts anyone?

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Quoting Levi32:


I like the idea of a gradually strengthening tropical storm until landfall somewhere on Hispaniola as it gradually curves northwest. Thereafter, it's very hard to predict how well Emily will survive the crossing. This will be crucial to track and intensity afterwards. Weaker storms have more potential to strengthen after crossing Hispaniola, if they survive. Hurricanes generally don't strengthen again after such an ordeal, unless they move into the Gulf of Mexico or out to sea where they have a lot of time over water.


I know western Cuba isn't the same as DR, but Gustav was pretty darn vigorous after he moved over Cuba.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nahhh. Still got time to monitor the situation and watch models change.


oh ok
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Quoting presslord:


What the hell are you talkin' about?


Quoting from the blog:

"General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast."
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Q: How strong will Tropical Storm reach before interacting with Hispaniola/Dominican Republic?

A. Weak: 40-45 mph
B. Stronger: 50-60 mph
C. Strong: 65-70 mph
D. Hurricane: 75-80 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

Q: How much will Hispaniola/Dominican Republic affect Tropical Storm Emily's intensity?

A. It will strengthen a lot over land
B. It will strengthen a little over land
C. It will weak rapidly over land
D. It will weaken some over land

Q: Will Tropical Storm Emily eventually make landfall in Florida, or any other state in the USA?

A. Yes
B. Too early to tell
C. No

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well this just narrows it down..

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Quoting Tazmanian:


wish means FL is DOOM?
Nahhh. Still got time to monitor the situation and watch models change.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting charlottefl:
Definitely think a lot depends on how strong Emily is when she crosses over Hispanola, the tighter the core is the better chance it has of decoupling in the mountains.

Also it depend where she decide to go and how long it takes.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Actually the stronger storm would be more disrupted than a weaker one would

Remember Fay? she formed over Hispaniola and survived the mountains


Good example, but I wouldn't use it as a rule of thumb. Hispaniola can have just as big of negative effect on a weak system then a strong one. Different factors are at play such as the speed of the system.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


it exits Hispaniola on Thursday morning, gets close to Florida on Saturday afternoon

Last I checked that is 2 days


Got it. Sorry I was reading too fast. I thought you meant 2 days from now.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening all, NHC right on the TVCN as expected. Pay attention to where the consensus model goes over the next few days because the NHC won't stray to far from it. We'll see what she looks like on the other side of DR and Hispaniola, they have been quite successful in the past at destroying a storm.




Seems to me the stronger this gets the more disrupted the storm shall be. At the moment the NHC believes that it won't be too strong and its core will recover quickly enough.
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Quoting Levi32:
Thanks Angela.

Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season.

I'm sure the NHC will do a good job.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
With the exception of the BAM suite now calling for a recurvature, all 00z model plots have basically shifted in tandem with the 5p.m cone.


wish means FL is DOOM?
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129. wpb
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening all, NHC right on the TVCN as expected. Pay attention to where the consensus model goes over the next few days because the NHC won't stray to far from it. We'll see what she looks like on the other side of DR and Hispaniola, they have been quite successful in the past at destroying a storm.

v good post
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Quoting robj144:


Thanks, I know, but the person updating the blog does not.


What the hell are you talkin' about?
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With the exception of the BAM suite now calling for a recurvature, all 00z model plots have basically shifted in tandem with the 5p.m cone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I know everyone wants to talk about Emily but is the system at 10 & 37 our next strom?


I live in Antigua and was wondering the same thing. We seem to have dodged the worst of Emily, but this system seems to me the next potential area of interest for us.
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Regardless of what happens over Hispanola, she will have plenty of time warm warm water so everyone should keep an eye on it!
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Quoting robj144:


2 days? On the official cone, they have around Saturday making landfall.


it exits Hispaniola on Thursday morning, gets close to Florida on Saturday afternoon

Last I checked that is 2 days
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Was a bust day for them.
Job well done!!!!

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I feel bad for any legitimate poster named Jason who manages to wander in here.

And yes I prefer the cone without the line too. Makes people either a) panic or b) think they are fine.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Stop making accounts! You're filling up my ignore list.


If you don't tell him you're ignoring him, he doesn't know to make a new handle. (hint hint)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Repost from last page since the blog is moving so fast...

18z NAM has a track through 54 hours that is very believable to me. The current speed at which Emily is moving will keep her on a more westerly course for the next day or so. Laugh if you must, but the NAM has done fairly well with tropical systems this year. It's ability to see smaller scale systems really helped with Bret and Don. Anyway, Emily is much larger than those two ever were, but the NAM still has the right idea.

54hr NAM:



18z GFS is already wrong in my opinion. At the same time frame (54hr), it has Emily close to landfall in the DR. The GFS seems to be underestimating the current speed of Emily, which is fairly quick to the west.



I agree, I think it will go a little farther west than most people think it will with its current forward motion.
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Evening all, NHC right on the TVCN as expected. Pay attention to where the consensus model goes over the next few days because the NHC won't stray to far from it. We'll see what she looks like on the other side of DR and Hispaniola, they have been quite successful in the past at destroying a storm.

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We'll be watching Emily makes it's way forward.
I wonder how much of a shift to the West we'll be looking at on tonight's 0z.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's ridiculous, and the Admins are just like "Oh ok, no problem, we'll just let him post."

4th time I ignored him today. I agree. Admins do need to do something with him. It's extremely annoying.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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