Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Wish casting the north-east turn does not happen and the whole south-east gets good rains deep into the Carolinas. Forget Texas, it would vaporize Emily to toast..
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting Detrina:
Holy cow! don't let anyone know if you are from Florida, you are automatically a westcaster, or wishcaster or floridacaster...sheesh, I have been on this blog for a number of years and the same old florida bashing gets a bit old. Florida IS in the official forecast track at the moment. Will it change? probably... but no one wished it there, it was placed there by people who are supposed to know these things... rant off.


The NHC is wish-casting it to them.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:




I'm trying to hold it in but I can't. I just can't stop laughing at where the red line is LOL
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Quoting RMM34667:
Might be a dumb question, but: If Emily trends more west than predicted, is it possible she will pass over DR/Haiti where it is less mountainous (that don't look right but you know what I mean) or even miss it?
Haiti and Eastern Cuba are pretty mountainous, so I think that would be the worst for its growth, but bad for Haiti, anyway you slice it this storm is going to be bad for someone. Your best hope is for wind shear and dry air to increase and tear this storm apart.
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Quoting caneswatch:
I leave to watch a movie, and I see Emily has formed and she's gonna be a hurricane off where I live.

Great........


Hang on canes...we are not at that point yet. Let's see what Emily does in a few days. Listen to some Rick :)
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Emily took Her time and missed the trough. I think She will continue on Her westerly track and make Her first "port of call" in Kingston as a strong tropical storm.

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I like the graphic showing the consensus, which is basically the smoothing of the model lines.

But it can't be said too often or too early: the warning area is in a cone for a reason. Anything within that cone, which is usually about 100 miles is an accurate prediction. Here in Miami, the difference between a 100 miles can be South Beach to West Palm Beach. That's a lot of area.

So, if we truly are in a five day cone, there is no need to panic or hype. make sure you have your plans in place, get your extra batteries, etc., and watch to see where it may go.

Intensity is the one part of the forecast that has a very low accuracy. So if it could possibly go to a Cat 1, you would be very smart to be prepared for a Cat 2.
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the surfers are going to love emily..and I dont care if there is a category 4 bearing down, there will be someone out catching a wave..it never fails.


Wilmington, NC NWS..Saturday
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE EARLY WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
OF SIX FEET WITH A TWO FOOT/TEN SECOND SWELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIVE
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SCALING BACK THROUGH SATURDAY.
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Holy cow! don't let anyone know if you are from Florida, you are automatically a westcaster, or wishcaster or floridacaster...sheesh, I have been on this blog for a number of years and the same old florida bashing gets a bit old. Florida IS in the official forecast track at the moment. Will it change? probably... but no one wished it there, it was placed there by people who are supposed to know these things... rant off.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Tropical Storm Emily is moving at 275 degrees.
West is 270 degrees.

Just a tad N of due west, even up to 280 , they'll call west, but really it just N of due west
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm guessing you're implying that it could take an Ivan-like track, but anything west of 85W is out of the equation. I can say that with confidence because the death ridge isn't going to move much for a while. The only way we get anything west of 85W is if it goes south of 25N.
No, that is not what I was implying. Just showing how the cones shift. Ivan was supposed to move east and north of the Cayman Islands according to the track and actually moved south and west.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:


What's the strength at landfall ?
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203. angelafritz (Admin)
Yes that "cyclone" should be a "storm." I will fix soon. My apologies.

But yes, "tropical cyclone" spans everything from TD to HR.
Quoting bradbarry27:


From other blog. Storms do survive crossing Hispanola. One of the worst examples is Frederic. The most expensive hurricane in the US until Hugo in '89.

could name others; David 79; Georges 98; Jeanne 04 [though Jeanne was severely impacted]; Noel 07; Faye '08.... basically if the low level structure is intact on the north side, the waters in the Bahamas provide sufficient fuel to rebuild a system. Plus there's the Gulf Stream on any NW track after that point...
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Quoting ElConando:



Seems to me the stronger this gets the more disrupted the storm shall be. At the moment the NHC believes that it won't be too strong and its core will recover quickly enough.


Hard to say ATM, last I checked it still had some organizing to do and conditions are not the greatest at the moment. Those should act to keep Emily in check up to landfall.


Hopefully the erroneous armchair forecasters realize the complexity of this forecast and leave it to the highly experienced and professionals. There is a lot of people and property in the way of the current forecast.
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Quoting angiest:


Hah, somehow I have always missed the historical link.


I like the historical...goes to show that at this point it can go anywhere. Far too soon.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:


Get your Zanax filled people! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Sorry Zoo! re posted the question before I saw your response... Sorry Blog!
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Quoting angiest:


Also known as may-as-well-be-west.


Yup, lol.
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I leave to watch a movie, and I see Emily has formed and she's gonna be a hurricane off where I live.

Great........
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Might be a dumb question, but: If Emily trends more west than predicted, is it possible she will pass over DR/Haiti where it is less mountainous (that don't look right but you know what I mean) or even miss it?
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Quoting trey33:
PcolaDan:

Thanks for the heads up about the new blog, sorry about that. I got distracted, apparently there were 3 pit bulls on the loose - hopefully that means she is NOT coming to Tampa. (they did scare all the ants away however)


If that works on fire ants. Send them my way. (haven't done the sugar and borax trick yet)
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Quoting ncstorm:


Its on WU tropical weather side
Link


Hah, somehow I have always missed the historical link.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:05:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°58'N 61°15'W (14.9667N 61.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the SSE (158°) from Roseau, Dominica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 208° at 26kts (From the SSW at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 312m (1,024ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
If the center fix is the co-ordinates of the coc now that means she moved a little south of west. That is how the steering looks to me in the short term.
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00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
188. xcool
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Tropical Storm Emily is moving at 275 degrees.
West is 270 degrees.


Also known as may-as-well-be-west.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


I'm guessing you're implying that it could take an Ivan-like track, but anything west of 85W is out of the equation. I can say that with confidence because the death ridge isn't going to move much for a while. The only way we get anything west of 85W is if it goes south of 25N.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting angiest:


Where do you go to generate that?


Its on WU tropical weather side
Link
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Quoting presslord:


there's no inconsistency in that post....it can be a tropical cyclone without being a hurricane...further...you might wanna check out her credentials before you mouth off about what she 'knows'.....although I'll concede she DID attend Georgia Tech...which is certainly a stain on her record....


The more I think about, it is correct, but extremely weird way of saying that. A cyclone can also be a hurricane. A tropical storm would have been a better way to say it.
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WTNT01 KNGU 012331
WARNING ATCN MIL 05L NAT 110801234731

2011080118 05L EMILY 001 01 275 15 SATL 030
T000 151N 0605W 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 156N 0635W 040 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 165N 0660W 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 174N 0685W 050 R050 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 184N 0705W 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 210N 0740W 040 R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 240N 0775W 050
T120 260N 0795W 065
AMP
NNNN
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/010400Z AUG 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM EMILY (05L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY (05L) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 60.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 60.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.6N 63.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.5N 66.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4N 68.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.4N 70.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.0N 74.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.0N 77.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.0N 79.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012330Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 61.3W OR APPROX 889NM EAST
OF GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA. THERE ARE NO 12FT SEAS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, FLEWEACEN
NORFOLK VA. 010400Z AUG 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020301Z, 020901Z, 021501Z
AND 022101Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0511072800 77N 339W 20
0511072806 79N 352W 20
0511072812 81N 365W 20
0511072818 84N 378W 20
0511072900 87N 391W 20
0511072906 91N 403W 25
0511072912 90N 420W 25
0511072918 94N 436W 25
0511073000 101N 446W 30
0511073006 114N 455W 30
0511073012 120N 468W 30
0511073018 125N 486W 30
0511073100 127N 500W 30
0511073106 129N 513W 30
0511073112 131N 528W 30
0511073118 133N 540W 30
0511080100 135N 551W 25
0511080106 143N 567W 25
0511080112 150N 585W 30
0511080118 151N 605W 35

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A question. When was 91L upgraded? What time Did the current models initialize? Are we seeing Model runs based on Emily, or 91L?? And does that make a difference?
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well I witnessed the fully fiery of Fredrick.And I guess yall forrgot about George .It went over DR and every othrr island.If this goe south of DR then Fredrick/Ivan Dennis track is kind of what I sense.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
pensecola dan have ozz on stanby and ready to go...i have a feeling fla is in for a good lick if it misses haiti...


He lives in New Mexico now. :|
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012336Z AUG 11
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/AUG
OVLY/ATL STORM 05L/011800Z0/AUG/1OF1/TROP STORM EMILY(05L)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/150600N2/0603000W9/S
TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0660000W2/S
TEXT/12//G/182400N5/0703000W0/S
TEXT/12//G/210000N3/0740000W1/S
TEXT/12//G/240000N6/0773000W7/S
TEXT/12//G/260000N8/0793000W9/H
LINE/6//G/150600N2/0603000W9/163000N0/0660000W2/1 82400N5/0703000W0
/210000N3/0740000W1/240000N6/0773000W7/260000N8/0 793000W9
ARC/0/G///150600N2/0603000W9/060NM/060NM
ARC/0/G///163000N0/0660000W2/060NM/060NM
ARC/0/G///182400N5/0703000W0/060NM/060NM
ARC/0/G///210000N3/0740000W1/060NM/060NM
TEXT/12//G/130600N0/0580000W3/TROP STORM EMILY
TEXT/12//G/120600N9/0580000W3/01 AUG 1800Z
TEXT/12//G/110600N8/0580000W3/MAX 35 KT
TEXT/12//G/100600N7/0580000W3/275 AT 15 KT
TEXT/12//G/090600N5/0580000W3/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0620000W8/0218Z MAX 45
TEXT/12//G/182400N5/0663000W5/0318Z MAX 50
TEXT/12//G/210000N3/0700000W7/0418Z MAX 40
TEXT/12//G/240000N6/0733000W3/0518Z MAX 50
TEXT/12//G/260000N8/0753000W5/0618Z MAX 65
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually passed very near the south coast of Grand Cayman.


Thank you for posting that, That is one time we all samed to see light and prepared accordindly!
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177. amd
Even though the small LLC of Emily is still about 100 miles away, buoy 42060 had 1-min sustained winds max out at 31 mph, with max gusts to 36 mph. I suspect that if Emily begins to gain latitude, that this buoy will have some tropical storm force sustained winds tonight.
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Quoting ncstorm:
well this just narrows it down..



Where do you go to generate that?
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Quoting midgulfmom:
139. ncstorm...LOL.. something for everyone!
LOL..and then some..
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Quoting seafarer459:
T Y Angela!
Question, Had the models enough time to digest the upgrade? Were they not processing this, as an invest?


The information fed into the models during the formation period is not very accurate, once the low is closed, and the air surrounding the storm is sampled and fed into the models, the results are more accurate.
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Emily still looks big on the Dorvack Sat.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
139. ncstorm...LOL.. something for everyone!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1122
Quoting sdswwwe:
That ridge above Emily keeps getting stronger and stronger which should keep her on a more westerly path. I am predicting a turn north on the very eastern tip of Hispaniola or the western tip of Cuba, being more of a threat to the Keys and southern tip of Florida. Thoughts anyone?

If the A/B high is indeed getting stronger on recent model runs then the more west it will go to include the spine of the state & then the west coast of FL. I think models are forecasting a weakness in the ridge at some point.
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I just made a new blog entry on Emily, check it out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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