Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting Relix:
Local media is saying this could pull a possible Hortense. Any takers for this?


Doubtful.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right? I posted mainly to get some laughs from the responses LOL.


That's just too funny where the red line is LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It doesn't give an intensity consensus, just says 108 hours.

Everything is in the 65-90mph range though.
Checked Tropical Atlantic site and found OFCI track at 67 knts in 120 hrs just N of Miami.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
You did and I agree... Why would it curve drastically back to sea? Maybe there is a good reason but I don't see it. I am just a watcher tho...


Well the further west it gets the bigger the threat to the US.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Where do you get that?
Post #248.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
260. Relix
Local media is saying this could pull a possible Hortense. Any takers for this?
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Quoting CothranRoss:


Wrightsville Beach is going to go bonkers.


might be Carolina Beach that they venture to..Wrightsville Beach parking fees are crazy..
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Quoting Tazmanian:


not 91L any more


Tks Taz!
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Quoting violet312s:


Zoo - you still maintain that GE map of all our locations? Yup, I'm a way back person too. Been away too long.


Haven't updated it in two seasons -- but if there is enough interest I can work on it this year.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:




Where do you get that?
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Quoting stormhank:
Is it possible Emily could still make it into the GOM??


Extreme Eastern GOM is possible, but even that's a stretch unless something changes.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting IKE:
Good luck to all of the folks in the islands....big rainmaker + wind event.....




+100
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Quoting GTcooliebai:
you got one of Cuba?




Even if it misses Haiti to the west and hits Eastern cuba it's got tall mountains to deal with.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Baha:

You definitely are the keeper of the history around here. Funny how I've forgotten some of those names.


Zoo - you still maintain that GE map of all our locations? Yup, I'm a way back person too. Been away too long.
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251. IKE
Good luck to all of the folks in the islands....big rainmaker + wind event.....


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
out of the 00Z runs I will go with the CLP5 I tink the storm will be on the southern side of cuba not the northern


The CLP5 is not an actual model, it is where a storm should track based on its current location and climatology.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This map should be important later on in 91L's life.

Look at the TCHP off the coast of Haiti, maybe will rapidly restrengthen once she goes into warm waters
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Which consensus model is the red line?
Just a consensus of all the 0z plots, not a model. You can check it out here.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
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HPC extended discussion on Emily

THE MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
55-60W LONGITUDE. OPERATIONAL MODEL TRACKS RANGE FROM THE CNTRL
GULF IN THE 00Z UKMET TO E OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. SLIGHT WWD TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE PAST 12 HRS AND
EWD ADJUSTMENT IN THE 12Z UKMET OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CONVERGENCE IN SOLNS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS QUITE SUPPRESSED WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDS A TRACK JUST
TO THE E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


The NHC is wish-casting it to them.



LOL!:)
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Mean Emily LOL, I've just been used to saying 91L for 3 days. I was here when Emily was named *facepalm*
That's ok we're all having our moments, I just posted an intensity model map for Eugene and thought it was Emily.
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Is it possible Emily could still make it into the GOM??
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Angela, are there rules against posting false (including entirely made-up) model data as if it were real?
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out of the 00Z runs I will go with the CLP5 I tink the storm will be on the southern side of cuba not the northern
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If the center fix is the co-ordinates of the coc now that means she moved a little south of west. That is how the steering looks to me in the short term.


You hit the nail on the head for now, thats what I'm trying to get across, I'm not saying it won't go where they predict or chart, but as for now i still see Emily moving south of Haiti/DR.
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Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hang on canes...we are not at that point yet. Let's see what Emily does in a few days. Listen to some Rick :)


True, she can be a TS or she can be a decent hurricane.

Rick has never gave up on her however ;) That's why he created this.
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Quoting ncstorm:
the surfers are going to love emily..and I dont care if there is a category 4 bearing down, there will be someone out catching a wave..it never fails.


Wilmington, NC NWS..Saturday
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE EARLY WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
OF SIX FEET WITH A TWO FOOT/TEN SECOND SWELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIVE
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SCALING BACK THROUGH SATURDAY.


Wrightsville Beach is going to go bonkers.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL:




Which consensus model is the red line?
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Quoting Detrina:
Holy cow! don't let anyone know if you are from Florida, you are automatically a westcaster, or wishcaster or floridacaster...sheesh, I have been on this blog for a number of years and the same old florida bashing gets a bit old. Florida IS in the official forecast track at the moment. Will it change? probably... but no one wished it there, it was placed there by people who are supposed to know these things... rant off.


lol apparently you dont read the posts here are you are not a regular...thats all these guys talk about a hurricane hitting fla...well i hoping its a cat 4 and it sits over fla for 2 days then maybe if they go through that they wont talk like that anymore...they just dont know how serious it is...all they talk about is having hurricane parties ..its sick..
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This map should be important later on in 91L's life.
you got one of Cuba?
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Quoting Tazmanian:


not 91L any more


Meant Emily LOL, I've just been used to saying 91L for so many days. I was here when Emily was named *facepalm*
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T.C.F.W.
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.33N/62.57W
TRACK
15.8N/64.7W
16.3N/65.3W
16.8N/65.9W
17.1N/66.3W
17.7N/66.8W
18.2N/67.3W


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Quoting caneswatch:


I'm trying to hold it in but I can't. I just can't stop laughing at where the red line is LOL
Right? I posted it mainly to get some laughs from the responses LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
was planning to help my daughter move to Daytona this weekend. Might have to delay a week. No way I'm towing a U-Haul trailer behind my Rodeo up I-4 in a storm. It's bad enough when the weather is good. Will have to keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to the weekend to see where this is really headed. A lot can change between now and then.
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Quoting angelafritz:
Yes that "cyclone" should be a "storm." I will fix soon. My apologies.

But yes, "tropical cyclone" spans everything from TD to HR.


No worries. Busy day. :)
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226. amd
Quoting BahaHurican:
could name others; David 79; Georges 98; Jeanne 04 [though Jeanne was severely impacted]; Noel 07; Faye '08.... basically if the low level structure is intact on the north side, the waters in the Bahamas provide sufficient fuel to rebuild a system. Plus there's the Gulf Stream on any NW track after that point...


I've noticed when it comes to Hispaniola that storms which track from the southeast or east has a much better chance of recovery than storms that make landfall from the North, or track very close to Hispaniola from the north. Of course, this is not an absolute by any means, as Ernesto in 2006 never regained Hurricane status after hitting Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
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Wow, I leave for four days and Don 'hits' Texas and Emily forms. Did have fun in Arkansas though.
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Quoting scooster67:
Emily took Her time and missed the trough. I think She will continue on Her westerly track and make Her first "port of call" in Kingston as a strong tropical storm.



It would be concerning if she pushed that far south and west. I think she'd be stronger than a strong TS at that point..
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This map should be important later on in 91L's life.


not 91L any more
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Does it all come down to how far west Emily goes and where the "break is" between highs? or might she go so far west that she won't go through the split/break?
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting lottotexas:
What's the strength at landfall ?
It doesn't give an intensity consensus, just says 108 hours.

Everything is in the 65-90mph range though.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BahaHurican:
could name others; David 79; Georges 98; Jeanne 04 [though Jeanne was severely impacted]; Noel 07; Faye '08.... basically if the low level structure is intact on the north side, the waters in the Bahamas provide sufficient fuel to rebuild a system. Plus there's the Gulf Stream on any NW track after that point...

In my mind, the most infamous example:



*NOTE* I do not expect Emily to do this by any means. I'm just pointing out a storm that has survived a crossing of Hispaniola.
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This map should be important later on in Emily's life.
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Hi Baha:

You definitely are the keeper of the history around here. Funny how I've forgotten some of those names.
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Well, my five year old, Emily, just got a kick out of seeing her name on here.
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Wish casting the north-east turn does not happen and the whole south-east gets good rains deep into the Carolinas. Forget Texas, it would vaporize Emily to toast..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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