Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting FrankZapper:
I think the panhandle should be OK unless things change drastically. Unfortunately you will be on the dry side and you may not get much drought relief.


We been getting plenty of rain for weeks now...so we in good shape there.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Oh yeah.....hope it went well for you. Looks like we finally have a serious storm building with what may be close to 100% chance hitting CONUS.
I think the panhandle should be OK unless things change drastically. Unfortunately you will be on the dry side and you may not get much drought relief.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You know, I'm not too sure that the center ever relocated.

I think the NHC just had this moving way too fast. To be honest, I don't think Emily was ever moving at 17mph like the NHC is indicating.


Well, I think it moved around some. It was a speed demon earlier today, but was slowed by the blowup of convection. However, I think you're on to something about the current speed. They even mentioned on the first advisory how unsure they were of speed/direction.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
TAFB has Emily parked over northern Andros island as a considerable tropical cyclone in a little less than 4 days (very, very compact system):

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Since the models are split, I'm going with climatology. August storms in this area are four times more likely to wind up in the GOM than they are to head north. I think you'll see more models trend west tomorrow.
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1610. crunja

Any chance it can hit D.C. ?
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1609. 34chip
Quoting texwarhawk:


That has got to be one of the biggest model spreads I've ever seen.
Untill we have a strong T-Storm. I think it will be like that. Also, as it gets closer we will know more. I think its going to move more west and come over florida as a T-Storm. IMO!!
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Quoting 34chip:
They do have back up tanks here on the island. As far as I know they have only used them during Andrew in 1992, but not much since then. I think Emily is going to be moving closer to Florida and the keys, but not as a strong hurricane. What do you think?


I no longer speculate lol. I've decided with this storm it's time to stop and only focus on the NHC forecast track. Anything I would tell you would be nothing but a guess and I definitely don't want people making decisions on my stupid guesses lol.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.
You know, I'm not too sure that the center ever relocated.

I think the NHC just had this moving way too fast. To be honest, I don't think Emily was ever moving at 17mph like the NHC is indicating.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting FrankZapper:
I had my outpatient ankle arthroscopy this AM. They removed torn cartilage and drilled holes in my ankle. You must be preparing for the dress thing?


Oh yeah.....hope it went well for you. Looks like we finally have a serious storm building with what may be close to 100% chance hitting CONUS.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.


That has got to be one of the biggest model spreads I've ever seen.
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1604. 34chip
Quoting texwarhawk:


That could be a very dangerous situation if a strong one comes close. But then again I'm sure y'all have holding tanks for such situations. And if the pipes were to break the bridge would also probably be out.
They do have back up tanks here on the island. As far as I know they have only used them during Andrew in 1992, but not much since then. I think Emily is going to be moving closer to Florida and the keys, but not as a strong hurricane. What do you think?
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Quoting texwarhawk:


That would be directly under the convection right?


Indeed.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:


The coordinates are what stick out to me. They are going with my thinking. Of course, it is a satellite estimate...


That would be directly under the convection right?
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Could you decode that for me-- I have no idea what it is saying.
Where's Nrt when you need him? Lol, he has a link that shows you what everything stands for. Unfortunately, I don't have it bookmarked. What I highlighted are the T-numbers though, and that's the important thing.

Quoting MississippiWx:


The coordinates are what stick out to me. They are going with my thinking. Of course, it is a satellite estimate...
Yup, I made an edit right after I posted it because I noticed how much further east the coordinates were juxtaposed against the latest ATCF update.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 34chip:
There are pipes under water that run down from the mainland Florida City. When a storm does come they shut the water off incase there is a break in the pipes.That is only if it was to be a strong storm. But dont get to excited about storms here like they do in Miami and other places. We deal with whatever may happen.


That could be a very dangerous situation if a strong one comes close. But then again I'm sure y'all have holding tanks for such situations. And if the pipes were to break the bridge would also probably be out.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at 3.0. Now I strongly believe that the NHC should increase the wind speed at 5a.m. because Emily is looking pretty darn good on satellite imagery.

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 6220W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 6290W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,


The coordinates are what stick out to me. They are going with my thinking. Of course, it is a satellite estimate...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1596. 34chip
Quoting texwarhawk:


You know I've never really thought of it but where do y'all get your drinking water from? Is there a aquifer or desalination plant or pipeline from mainland?
There are pipes under water that run down from the mainland Florida City. When a storm does come they shut the water off incase there is a break in the pipes.That is only if it was to be a strong storm. But dont get to excited about storms here like they do in Miami and other places. We deal with whatever may happen.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at 3.0. Now I strongly believe that the NHC should increase the wind speed at 5p.m. because Emily is looking pretty good on satellite imagery.

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 6220W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT
AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 6290W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,


Could you decode that for me-- I have no idea what it is saying.
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SAB at T2.5; TAFB at 3.0. Now I strongly believe that the NHC should increase the wind speed at 5a.m. because Emily is looking pretty darn good on satellite imagery.

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 6220W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT

AL, 05, 201108020545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 6290W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

Edit: Notice the coordinates that SAB has for Emily, almost right in the center of the CDO, and TAFB is just a little more to the west.

So in other words, the NHC is pretty much alone in their thinking that Emily's circulation is all the way at 63.6W.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hiya Frank....in and out...depending on how buzy we are here at work. You having a good morning??
I had my outpatient ankle arthroscopy this AM. They removed torn cartilage and drilled holes in my ankle. You must be preparing for the dress thing?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
If the actual center is where the last ATCF coordinates are located, I will eat dirt instead of crow. Each passing frame convinces me that it's farther east. The Martinique radar confirms my thinking as well.

Newest frame from 645UTC:



Can not wait to see what that looks like when the sun hits it. Hate we don't have recon!!
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Quoting 34chip:
I live in Key West not to worried about this storm. Think we might get some rain, but we need it.


You know I've never really thought of it but where do y'all get your drinking water from? Is there a aquifer or desalination plant or pipeline from mainland?
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If the actual center is where the last ATCF coordinates are located, I will eat dirt instead of crow. Each passing frame convinces me that it's farther east. The Martinique radar confirms my thinking as well.

Newest frame from 645UTC:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting FrankZapper:
Morning all. I see some new faces. Welcome! Hope none are JFV impostor. :)
Trauma, you still here. Read some of your earlier posts.


Hiya Frank....in and out...depending on how buzy we are here at work. You having a good morning??
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1586. 34chip
I live in Key West not to worried about this storm. Think we might get some rain, but we need it.
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1585. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, it would most likely turn in a more northerly direction farther east...possibly closer to you. You should definitely pay attention.


The HHs better have technical difficulties or I'll cause them... LOL! :\ I really wanted them to check Emily out to know what to expect for tomorrow, but eh...
I'll be watching closely.

Good night everyone!
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Morning all. I see some new faces. Welcome! Hope none are JFV impostor. :)
Trauma, you still here. Read some of your earlier posts.
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Couple friends of mine were part of hailSTONE which found the largest documented Hailstone to fall on Oklahoma earlier this year

Link
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well my brain cant take this uncertainty so I'm turning off the computer and not looking at Emily anymore. LOL!

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

But every new picture in the Martinique radar convinces me more and more that the center has reformed under the convection with bands coming from the south and clearly spinning; unless that's the mother of the mid-level circulations. xD



Also, before I go, does anyone know if the track in the short term(48hrs) would change if the center did reform?


Yeah, it would most likely turn in a more northerly direction farther east...possibly closer to you. You should definitely pay attention.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
remmember what levi told us we have seen many storms look like this neer damx but once the sun comes up rip
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Quoting TomTaylor:
The TUTT will actually back off...sorry if I mislead anyone here saying that the TUTT's negative side effects should increase slightly. The reason I said that is Emily is moving slightly north of west so it should get closer to the TUTT axis presently to the north. The TUTT, however, will be backing off to the East as a trough comes off the east coast of the US.

Therefore, the negative effects of this TUTT (dry, sinking air in response to upper level convergence far to the NW of the system - also keep in mind this TUTT also has many positive effects for Emily) shouldn't necessarily increase. Instead it should, just remain a bit of an issue over the next day.

Whether or not the upper level anticyclone will be allowed to truly balloon northward (it's currently having trouble due to the TUTT to the north) is hard to say. The trough to the north could either act to help take winds out of the top of the system, or it could work with the ridge over the US to provide northerly winds aloft pushing air toward the system, limiting the upper level anticyclone. It will all depend on the strength and positioning of the trough coming off the US and the ridge over the US. Currently the GFS and ECMWF are both displaying these upper level features, but they disagree quite significantly on the location/timing, and the strength of these features. This has a big impact on what upper level winds and conditions will be like over Emily so it will be important to keep on eye on this.


Wouldn't Emily being on the edge of the TUTT (far enough away to not be sheered) be beneficial due to stronger instability and greater ventilation?
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Emily is probably getting a boost in energy/moisture from that ITCZ disturbance that was south of her earlier today. It kind of fizzled, but its remnants are being pulled into Emily. Impressive banding is now very evident on her SE/E/NE sides:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1577. JLPR2
Well my brain cant take this uncertainty so I'm turning off the computer and not looking at Emily anymore. LOL!

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

But every new picture in the Martinique radar convinces me more and more that the center has reformed under the convection with bands coming from the south and clearly spinning; unless that's the mother of the mid-level circulations. xD



Also, before I go, does anyone know if the track in the short term(48hrs) would change if the center did reform?
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I'd give a toe to have the sun over Emily right not-- Not really but you get the point.
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Will that TUTT be moving out of the way before then or will Emily get its act together before then to better combat that dry air. I personally believe that any intensification is possible, models don't seem to have good enough input data to accurately predict changes in intensification in young systems in my opinion.
The TUTT will actually back off...sorry if I mislead anyone here saying that the TUTT's negative side effects should increase slightly. The reason I said that is Emily is moving slightly north of west so it should get closer to the TUTT axis presently to the north. The TUTT, however, will be backing off to the East as a trough comes off the east coast of the US.

Therefore, the negative effects of this TUTT (dry, sinking air in response to upper level convergence far to the NW of the system - also keep in mind this TUTT also has many positive effects for Emily) shouldn't necessarily increase. Instead it should, just remain a bit of an issue over the next day.

Whether or not the upper level anticyclone will be allowed to truly balloon northward (it's currently having trouble due to the TUTT to the north) is hard to say. The trough to the north could either act to help take winds out of the top of the system, or it could work with the ridge over the US to provide northerly winds aloft pushing air toward the system, limiting the upper level anticyclone. It will all depend on the strength and positioning of the trough coming off the US and the ridge over the US. Currently the GFS and ECMWF are both displaying these upper level features, but they disagree quite significantly on the location/timing, and the strength of these features. This has a big impact on what upper level winds and conditions will be like over Emily so it will be important to keep on eye on this.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If that LLC is under that convection-- that thing is looking good (IMO)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You couldn't stand it, could you? Lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Dynamic 6z

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Quoting texwarhawk:
I find it really interesting that Recon didn't go out- They won't have recon info before the next update now. Very very very interesting-- Now they wont have recon in there till right when they issue the intermediate advisory.


Frustrating as hell is the better term...lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
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I find it really interesting that Recon didn't go out- They won't have recon info before the next update now. Very very very interesting-- Now they wont have recon in there till right when they issue the intermediate advisory.
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Quoting texwarhawk:


At regular (not intermediate) advisories at 5 and 11


Thank you.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Ah, I've never really gotten into the whole recon thing. Everyone else does such a good job with it that I see no reason why I should look into the details. I can read the hdobs and that's all I care to know.


I understand I'm just using context clues looking at the plans and what actually happens-- I've depended on Google Earth Recon Updates for almost a year not- not as quick but much easier to see in relation to things without having to have a LATLON grid in your head lol
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Quoting nolacane2009:
When does the NHC update their tracks?


At regular (not intermediate) advisories at 5 and 11
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.