Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting StratoCumulus:


Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane category 3 also calls Emily with almost the same track as this new storm


Yes, but this Emily should track a lot farther west that Emily (1987) did. Emily (1987) storm re-curved after making landfall in Hispaniola, Emily (2011) should continue WNW after that.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do realize it has 2 days before any landfall in Florida. On top of that the waters are very warm in the Bahamas and the islands there would do nothing to hurt the intensity.

A lot can happen in 2 days
NHC has seen it happen often enough. Their cat 1 at FL landfall is quite reasonable and may be an underestimation if Emily slows enough over Bahamian waters. Not the scenario I prefer - I like the dissapate over Hispaniola one, myself - but certainly not out of the realm of possibility...

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Emily loos like it might do a David type track,
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Notice the time stamps for each of the models. They say 8pm.

Also, notice the GFS track on the latest 18Z run. It has shifted back east.


Not sure how much creedence to put into that, since these were originated before Emily was declared a TS and before the data was incorporated into the models.


Those are interpolated, not initialized.
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Quoting stormhank:
Im no expert here but doesnt the forcast track remind everyone of David in 1979?? over hispainola and rides up the east coast of Fla makin landfall in the carolinas?? I know things will change thats why I have alotta crow stored away lol


Yes, that is a very good comparison for track. However, according to Levi, the re-curvature should be a bit more fast, thus saving my area here in Southeastern North Carolina. :D

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Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane Emily (cat.3) with almost the same track as this new storm...
Member Since: November 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
out of the 00Z runs I will go with the CLP5 I tink the storm will be on the southern side of cuba not the northern
you do know that is not a model based on any current conditions, it is purely climatology based for a storm in that position.
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Quoting FallingBarometer:
Looks like we are going to get some nasty weather here in MLB. Local news stations already getting the "run for the hills" message out there.

Interesting trivia for Brevard County during the last 2 hurricanes...... The only 2 fatalities were from evacuees.

I am watching CFNEWS 13 and they are saying get prepared, which is the right message to broadcast, residents should be ready and prepared even if it does not hit. The meteorologist did say the path could change but he can't just say well heres the track it will change and miss Florida because of one model run.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


The (cuba) westward statistic model runs look the most likely to me

All I know is that things can and will change at the drop of a hat and once any tropical system enters the Caribbean we ALL need to watch it closely.
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:
273 and 275: Old model tracks


no those are new model tracks..8pm is the time..
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Quoting lovejessicaa9:
8pm tracks


It says 2 pm on your chart. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Low at this point. It should be crossing over the island in 48 hours or less, and even though conditions will be favorable, it may not have enough time.

Modest strengthening to at least Don's intensity (50 mph) is highly likely at this point however..Probably higher.


Currently, I am not too sure on the track to Hispaniola. I still think she i too far south and stuck in the east to west flow.
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Just so we don't forget, Muifa looks to be successfully completing a EWRC and appears to be strengthening again. Muifa is a massive and very dangerous typhoon to those in it's path. JTWC predicts a direct hit on Okinawa.


Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting lovejessicaa9:
8pm tracks


Seriously, quit making new names. It has been old for 2 years now. I'm sure this girl really likes you using her picture and posing as her. Now to ignore Jason for literally the 20th time.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Im no expert here but doesnt the forcast track remind everyone of David in 1979?? over hispainola and rides up the east coast of Fla makin landfall in the carolinas?? I know things will change thats why I have alotta crow stored away lol
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EMILY Cone.
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Quoting jambev:
 StormwatcherCI
Your graphics on 156 brought back horrific memories, probably more for you than me. 36 hours out Ivan was forecast to go right through Jamaica but would have missed the Caymans.
Instead a late wobble to the west saved us from the worst but I know what happened to you. It shows that it does not take much to change things.
It was terrible. I stayed on the phone with a friend in Jamaica the night of the 11th trying to figure out what to expect. Wasn't long until she lost her entire roof and had to run for cover. I don't think anything could have prepared me for what Ivan did here. Just pray for everyone not to receive any devastation or death this year.
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Quoting ncstorm:


but you have to tend to the sharks there..LOL..I like Carolina Beach better..more family friendly


Its okay, its their home anyway. LOL
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Recon should find a strengthening Emily tonight. She also appears to have slowed down just a tad, tucking herself more underneath the convection. Still on the western edge of the convection though.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting BrandiQ:
What are the chances that Emily could become a hurricane before she gets to the Dominican?


Low at this point. It should be crossing over the island in 48 hours or less, and even though conditions will be favorable, it may not have enough time.

Modest strengthening to at least Don's intensity (50 mph) is highly likely at this point however..Likely higher. The National Hurricane Center takes it up to 60 mph, which is a good forecast.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Just don't believe the pattern supports too far west into the Gulf.


I am guessing Eastern Gulf
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273 and 275: Old model tracks
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Looks like we are going to get some nasty weather here in MLB. Local news stations already getting the "run for the hills" message out there.

Interesting trivia for Brevard County during the last 2 hurricanes...... The only 2 fatalities were from evacuees.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


I think it has a good chance. You have to keep in mind that the models have wanted to "curve" the storm all week but the track keeps getting further westward. Now it "curves" and turns right into Florida. All it takes is a little bit more of a westward track and the thing turns right up into the Gulf.


Just don't believe the pattern supports too far west into the Gulf.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.33N/62.57W
TRACK
15.8N/64.7W
16.3N/65.3W
16.8N/65.9W
17.1N/66.3W
17.7N/66.8W
18.2N/67.3W



This is over southwest corner of PR
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I would not be laughing if I was in a cone by the NHC. I take it very seriously and those joking about it hitting Florida should do a reality check for a moment as Emily very well could hit there. I am sure the residents on Hispaniola are taking it seriously.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Which is why my family and I go to Topsail Beach.


but you have to tend to the sharks there..LOL..I like Carolina Beach better..more family friendly
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Statistical




Dynamic


The (cuba) westward statistic model runs look the most likely to me
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What are the chances that Emily could become a hurricane before she gets to the Dominican?
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Ridge over Texas continues to build southwest:

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 StormwatcherCI
Your graphics on 156 brought back horrific memories, probably more for you than me. 36 hours out Ivan was forecast to go right through Jamaica but would have missed the Caymans.
Instead a late wobble to the west saved us from the worst but I know what happened to you. It shows that it does not take much to change things.
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Quoting lovejessicaa9:
new modeles moving back to the east and going out to sea


Isn't that the old tracks?
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Quoting Barbados:
do we have another potential system at 10N 37W??


It is not a system at this time, but we will need to watch this area very closely as it is a strong tropical wave, and some models have developed it periodically.

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Quoting Barbados:
do we have another potential system at 10N 37W??


I am looking at that and also the feature right behind it which looks even better to me.
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Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island rain totals..36-42 hours

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Quoting lovejessicaa9:
new modeles moving back to the east and going out to sea
This is from 2pm and before it was declared TS Emily.
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Quoting ncstorm:


might be Carolina Beach that they venture to..Wrightsville Beach parking fees are crazy..


Which is why my family and I go to Topsail Beach.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Extreme Eastern GOM is possible, but even that's a stretch unless something changes.


I think it has a good chance. You have to keep in mind that the models have wanted to "curve" the storm all week but the track keeps getting further westward. Now it "curves" and turns right into Florida. All it takes is a little bit more of a westward track and the thing turns right up into the Gulf.
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Statistical




Dynamic
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just a consensus of all the 0z plots, not a model. You can check it out here.


Ok, that looked crazy from any of the consensus models from NHC.
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7 days out..according to the HPC

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do we have another potential system at 10N 37W??
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I see Emily appears to be taking aim on the US. However, just to remind everyone, there are large errors at longer ranges. In any event, Emily should be a vivid reminder that hurricane season is here.
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Quoting Relix:
Local media is saying this could pull a possible Hortense. Any takers for this?


Doubtful.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.