Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

Share this Blog
13
+

Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 366 - 316

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting lovejessicaa9:


Now I'm 1000% positive that you're Jason. Those are from Invest91, not from Emily. Stop putting out false and potentially dangerous information!

POOF!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angelafritz:


It probably falls into one of the categories. Ill talk with our other admins to resolve.


Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Umm, how significantly will Emily affect PR?


Expect A LOT of rainfall and some gusty winds.

You'll probably see at least 4" of rain from Emily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
362. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting angiest:
Angela, are there rules against posting false (including entirely made-up) model data as if it were real?


It probably falls into one of the categories. Ill talk with our other admins to resolve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FIM rides it up the FL coast

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Thank you. Don't see much of a right turn at this point either.


Yep I am on your band wagon. This appears to be the best forecast I agree with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Umm, how significantly will Emily affect PR?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has anyone noticed and/or commented on the significant convection at Long. 29 Lat. 11?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Those are interpolated, not initialized.
actually, they are both, BUT, how do you initialize something at 8 pm if the time stamp is 2 pm ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
354. Relix
Quoting PRweathercenter:
yes the local news said it's only going to pass 50 miles off shore, that's too close for comfort


Nah I say about 150 miles. I don't buy the NHC track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
353. 7544
what time is the next plane
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Lots of dry air positioned just to her north. The 18Z SHIPS run shows RH readings at the mid-levels only in the low to mid 50's. She'll be struggling with dry air for a while, which is primarily the reason I don't see her having much of a chance at reaching hurricane strength before either Hispaniola or Cuba.


She shouldn't have a problem with it since she will likely stay south of the dry air on a westward track. Yet, if the dry air intrudes on her and keeps her weak then we are going to have a bigger problem (Weak storm=GOM storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
The image below shows the weakness over S Fla with the high from the East and the high to the West and the trough digging South between the two. The two highs will attempt to bridge.

Emily's forward speed and relative weak condition will determine how far West it gets to before feeling the pull of the trough. The NHC forecast track is predicated on the system pulling up in response to the trough. My own view, FWIW, is that unless Emily slows down and deepens some more it will likely push to a position close to the gap between Jamaica and Western Haiti.

In other words, more West than presently forecast. The forward motion is too fast now for any significant deepening as the area of lowest pressure is out to the West of the deep convection.



Thank you. Don't see much of a right turn at this point either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
350. skook
Notable Hispaniola Mountain Peaks
• Pico Duarte[1] PB Dominican Republic Island of Hispaniola 3098 m
10,164 feet 3098 m
10,164 feet 941 km
584 miles

• Loma Alto de la Bandera PB Dominican Republic Island of Hispaniola 2842 m
9,324 feet 1502 m
4,928 feet 45 km
28 miles


• Pic la Selle[2] PB Haiti Island of Hispaniola 2680 m
8,793 feet 2650 m
8,694 feet 127 km
79 miles

• Pic Macaya PB Haiti Island of Hispaniola 2347 m
7,700 feet 2087 m
6,847 feet 216 km
134 miles


• Loma Gajo en Medio PB Dominican Republic Island of Hispaniola 2279 m
7,477 feet 1779 m
5,837 feet 57 km
36 miles


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Dominica via StormCarib site:

....Amazingly the power held throughout the worst of it, which lasted a couple of hours at most, andapart from a few flicks there were no surges either in thecurrent. Compliments to the electricity company -Domlec!
However, throughout the capital there was minor-moderate street flooding, but this has since subsided as the rains have mostly tapered off though at present alight shower is now falling. Thankfully there were no strong wind gusts with these intense lines of thunderstorms/ thundershowers in Roseau, however, other parts of the island might be able to report differently.

*UPDATE - AS OF 7:30P.M. Tropical storm Emily has formed since the well defined circulation center finally formed near Dominica. We are MOST THANKFUL TO GOD for this LATE FORMATION OF EMILY since it meant we got the most weak 'version' of the storm so to speak. We may get some more moderate -heavy rain later but as for now its light rain in the south with no strong winds...no one is complaining! Most likely it may get a bit gusty later tonight but for now Emily has been a most proper Lady. May shebe ever so gentle to all in her future path...
Let us all keep safe and sound during this Hurricane season!

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.sh tml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
Slowing down a bit and growing.
yes the local news said it's only going to pass 50 miles off shore, that's too close for comfort
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Think about it. A system that covers most of the Antilles simultaneously, that is a large system. Even when it consolidates, it will be a reasonable sized cane.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FallingBarometer:
Looks like we are going to get some nasty weather here in MLB. Local news stations already getting the "run for the hills" message out there.

Interesting trivia for Brevard County during the last 2 hurricanes...... The only 2 fatalities were from evacuees.

The only hills I am running for are the ones that could form in the Atlantic if this thing takes the eastern track. My wishcast would be for it to recurve soon and spare most everyone but the shipping lanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


might be Carolina Beach that they venture to..Wrightsville Beach parking fees are crazy..


Not if you bike there!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The image below shows the weakness over S Fla with the high from the East and the high to the West and the trough digging South between the two. The two highs will attempt to bridge.

Emily's forward speed and relative weak condition will determine how far West it gets to before feeling the pull of the trough. The NHC forecast track is predicated on the system pulling up in response to the trough. My own view, FWIW, is that unless Emily slows down and deepens some more it will likely push to a position close to the gap between Jamaica and Western Haiti.

In other words, more West than presently forecast. The forward motion is too fast now for any significant deepening as the area of lowest pressure is out to the West of the deep convection.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:

4th time I ignored him today. I agree. Admins do need to do something with him. It's extremely annoying.


Do ya'll realize that if jason had stuck with one name, he'd have more posts than Taz?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
out of the 00Z runs I will go with the CLP5 I tink the storm will be on the southern side of cuba not the northern
Gee I wonder why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Humbly, every so, I think that the track will be more west than expected, possibly into the Gulf as well as the system becoming much stronger than originally expected.

We shall see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed:


And if you look at the total list (handle names) you'll find about 12 "jason" names. And each blog is probably active.
not for much longer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I try to post real time info and images, not what might be or have been( take back the have been part) used as a guide to explain, I really can't understand why so many are hung up on models( while used for guidance one must draw their own skill and conclusions) or for that matter we all could call ourselves meteorologists ! Ck back back in the morning to see what Emily is up to, never know I might need the rest!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Emily has organized a lot since earlier today. It has finally fixed that competing centers problem that had been haunting it for most of its life. In addition, the storm is stacked in all levels, something that Don was never ever to do. To further add to the difference between Don and Emily, the latter will be in a lot better environment for strengthening, and thus, Emily should get a lot stronger than Don ever was. The only problem that both of the systems will share is dry air, which will plague Emily throughout most, if not all, of her life.

Water Vapor:



Rainbow:



I expect Emily will strengthen to 60-65 mph before it makes landfall in Hispaniola/Dominican Republic, and then weaken down to 45-50 mph or slightly less as it crosses the island. After that, it is anyone's guess, although I believe it will become at least a weak Category 1 hurricane at some point in that area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well climo shos a storm in that area at this time would do this plus I think that the rest of the models will soon follow as I said I am expecting the models and the track to shift south and west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Glad to hear there is a ridge over Texas and a High over the Gulf... How far west will she go however and what about a "stall" possiblity? That would change things. Do models ever predict a stall or do they move the system constantly at a certain pace? Just wondering because there have been storms that changed direction more than once and circled around, etc. Do models ever predict such things?
Yes they have as the models have gotten more accurate in the last few years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


It says 2 pm on your chart. :)

Did somebody say chart?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
331. 7544
hmm lloks like emily is blowing up at this hour what time is recon going in again est tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
Quoting cloudburst2011:


lol apparently you dont read the posts here are you are not a regular...thats all these guys talk about a hurricane hitting fla...well i hoping its a cat 4 and it sits over fla for 2 days then maybe if they go through that they wont talk like that anymore...they just dont know how serious it is...all they talk about is having hurricane parties ..its sick..


Wow, HUGE generalization!! Those of us who lost homes in Frances and Jeanne, worked around the clock caring for other people while our possessions sat damaged and/or destroyed would beg to differ!! I'm sick being in the bullseye, but don't want anyone else to suffer!! There weren't many parties on the Treasure Coast in 2004-2005, at least not in my circles!! Please don't lump Floridians in one big group!! I witnessed first hand the suffering in our community. I'll take what mother nature hands out because I'm a survivor, but it doesn't mean I have to like it!! Please reconsider your thoughts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z Emily Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is moving rigth to Puerto Rico? i don't like the way that the low level spiral bands ara moving :(.....more than Hortence look like Jeanne..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:
This is getting annoying. 10 of the last 15 ppl I've ignored have the jason handle.


And if you look at the total list (handle names) you'll find about 12 "jason" names. And each blog is probably active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You buying the curve out to sea? What are your thoughts on where she might head?


I still think a tad further west. How far west? Of that I am unsure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
323. Relix
Slowing down a bit and growing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StratoCumulus:


Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane category 3 also calls Emily with almost the same track as this new storm


And history never repeats itself exactly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


There seemed to be some nice blow up there for a little while...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

A wet, sticky day on Grand Cayman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Glad to hear there is a ridge over Texas and a High over the Gulf... How far west will she go however and what about a "stall" possiblity? That would change things. Do models ever predict a stall or do they move the system constantly at a certain pace? Just wondering because there have been storms that changed direction more than once and circled around, etc. Do models ever predict such things?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest91 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StratoCumulus:


Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane category 3 also calls Emily with almost the same track as this new storm


Yes, but this Emily should track a lot farther west that Emily (1987) did. Emily (1987) storm re-curved after making landfall in Hispaniola, Emily (2011) should continue WNW after that.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 366 - 316

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
71 °F
Mostly Cloudy