Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting Kibkaos:
Okay I have been looking at Emily. I don't see this one going up toward the Carolinas. I know I am probably doing a little hopeful thinking over here in Brazoria County South East Texas. My question is who thinks this storm may come into the GOM? Looking forward to your answers.


It could still enter the Gulf of Mexico. It's not as if some of the models aren't predicting such. There's still a lot up in the air though, including how much troughing we actually get over the western Atlantic, and how strong Emily becomes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20357
Quoting Matt74:
Gee I wonder why?


LOL
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Maybe Emily will recurve out to sea if Floridians sacrifice Governor Skeletor to the storm god.
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Quoting wakd3Xn04:
was planning to help my daughter move to Daytona this weekend. Might have to delay a week. No way I'm towing a U-Haul trailer behind my Rodeo up I-4 in a storm. It's bad enough when the weather is good. Will have to keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to the weekend to see where this is really headed. A lot can change between now and then.


If you have mobile capabilities (wifi, etc), check into the Wundermap feature. One of the "overlays" is the Road Trip feature, allowing you to use the Google route feature, and display weather along the route.

Can give you a little "heads-up" as to where you may want to lay-over for awhile.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yes, storm surges and flooding are major (potentially catastrophic) killers, not posting a map on a weather blog.


we all can remember TS Allison 1995. Weak storms can cause serious problems. Also TS Jeanne killed 1000 people as a weak storm.
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Just for accuracy.. The Model data that Jessica posted did say 91L, but the same are posted as Emily. And time stampsed 7pm Jessica did not post inaccurate information. It's right here on WU if anyone wanted to check: and they are WAY EAST of previous models

Link
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Quoting hahaguy:
Emily loos like it might do a David type track,


Oh NO--not another one.  I remember David on Labor Day weekend 1979, was it?  Already been the BULLSEYE for Frances and Jeanne here at the St. Lucie inlet, and Wilma came in our back door 13 months later.  We have had enough.  Could use a little rain from a tropical storm, tho.
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The GFDL shows more west movement, and the cones always move. I'd be wary in any costal area at this point. But hopefully, Emily will turn out to sea
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Quoting Levi32:


Well it can really depend. There is no actual decoupling going on when the storm passes over 10000-ft mountains. The surface circulation simply disappears, and is forced to redevelop on the other side. That can sometimes be underneath the mid-level center or somewhere else. Also, weak storms have no major inner core to disrupt, and the amount of energy in the storm as a whole is small compared to a hurricane, so if it survives the passage at all, it has more potential to strengthen on the other side than if a hurricane had made the crossing.


6 of one and half a dozen of the other as we say in the Caribbean. Highly unlikely it remains intact as a TS crossing over Haiti which is what the guidance shows
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nope shes still moving west no WNW movement yet I don't think it will for a while maybe in about 36/48 hours


agreed! My "Red Alert" would highlight Eastern Cuba and the, Jamaica area. Any further east and it would only be a moderate risk to me. I keep thinking the most westward track of NOAA's cone is most likely.
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Okay I have been looking at Emily. I don't see this one going up toward the Carolinas. I know I am probably doing a little hopeful thinking over here in Brazoria County South East Texas. My question is who thinks this storm may come into the GOM? Looking forward to your answers.
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Quoting trutxn:
Has anyone noticed and/or commented on the significant convection at Long. 29 Lat. 11?


--

Good point, I think that one of the models was developing a system after Emily very agressively, this week.

I think GFS.

Looks like it may be coming. Depends too on what Emily does, whether it leaves a nice moist environment and stays far enough ahead.
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Quoting dolphin13:


Wow, HUGE generalization!! Those of us who lost homes in Frances and Jeanne, worked around the clock caring for other people while our possessions sat damaged and/or destroyed would beg to differ!! I'm sick being in the bullseye, but don't want anyone else to suffer!! There weren't many parties on the Treasure Coast in 2004-2005, at least not in my circles!! Please don't lump Floridians in one big group!! I witnessed first hand the suffering in our community. I'll take what mother nature hands out because I'm a survivor, but it doesn't mean I have to like it!! Please reconsider your thoughts.



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Out for a while...too much clutter on here for now. Be back for the night shift. Hope to see my fellow night-shifters here when I return.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10200
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I've said this a lot with this system, but, Aww man!


Yeah, there are going to be a lot of flooding issues down there...Unfortunately.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Could be even higher in areas of mountainous terrain.


Yeah, there are going to be a lot of mudslides as well.

Quoting kmanislander:


The problem I have with the NHC forecast for strength is that the track takes the system over very high mountainous terrain in Western Haiti. They show it as a TS South of haiti and emerging as a TS off the N coast. I would expect a weak TS to completely decouple over the high terrain and emerge to the N of Haiti as a remnant low or at best a TD. I am not convinced by the present guidance.


Well, the weaker the system, the less impact that Hispaniola/Dominican Republic will have on it. We will have to see how things play out.

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yes, storm surges and flooding are major (potentially catastrophic) killers, not posting a map on a weather blog.


wow you really don't get it.

Sad.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The problem I have with the NHC forecast for strength is that the track takes the system over very high mountainous terrain in Western Haiti. They show it as a TS South of haiti and emerging as a TS off the N coast. I would expect a weak TS to completely decouple over the high terrain and emerge to the N of Haiti as a remnant low or at best a TD. I am not convinced by the present guidance.


Well it can really depend. There is no actual decoupling going on when the storm passes over 10000-ft mountains. The surface circulation simply disappears, and is forced to redevelop on the other side. That can sometimes be underneath the mid-level center or somewhere else. Also, weak storms have no major inner core to disrupt, and the amount of energy in the storm as a whole is small compared to a hurricane, so if it survives the passage at all, it has more potential to strengthen on the other side than if a hurricane had made the crossing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
393. srada
Quoting FLdewey:
Guys you can handle your Jason obsession via WU Mail - just mail the admins and they will handle the problem without clogging the blog. :-)

Deep breathing... still a week to go for Emily.


well great Dewey, lets just clog up admin's email even more. I'm sure they have enough to do explaining to bloggers why jason is now jessica.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Guys you can handle your Jason obsession via WU Mail - just mail the admins and they will handle the problem without clogging the blog. :-)

Deep breathing... still a week to go for Emily.


LMFAO!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Quoting Ryuujin:


Now I'm 1000% positive that you're Jason. Those are from Invest91, not from Emily. Stop putting out false and potentially dangerous information!

POOF!


I'm actually pretty sure it's not Jason.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
She already moving more WNW than W. I don't see her backing around and staying very far south of the NHC forecast points.

nope shes still moving west no WNW movement yet I don't think it will for a while maybe in about 36/48 hours
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



the set up now the only place emily can go in the gom is mexico...
With the high, and ridge, thats what I was thinking unless it stalls or something and the timing changes.
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Quoting emcf30:


Well said Dolphin.


I think Dolphin's statement falls true to anyone who has survived a hurricane...but I agree...well said
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386. 7544
does anyone know what time does the next hh go thanks sehhhhh
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6750
i told you so,,,Emily will be a playmaker and will hit USA
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as I thought they would, the National Hurricane Center based the intensity off the LGEM model, which can be considered reliable for intensity forecasts. It is the model the National Hurricane Center favors, and it is quite accurate. Brings Emily up to hurricane status at the end of the period.



The problem I have with the NHC forecast for strength is that the track takes the system over very high mountainous terrain in Western Haiti. They show it as a TS South of haiti and emerging as a TS off the N coast. I would expect a weak TS to completely decouple over the high terrain and emerge to the N of Haiti as a remnant low or at best a TD. I am not convinced by the present guidance.
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Quoting FLdewey:
I have to go to Publix tomorrow for regular groceries before the crazies get going. Local mets are going to go off the chain tonight... may see rolled up sleeves by Wednesday.

Hey Dewey, were you around for David. I was in Cocoa Beach and it was interesting to say the least.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh, it's SOOOOO dangerous. Chill out.


I'm sorry, but lying and telling people that a Tropical Cyclone will turn out to sea IS dangerous. If you don't see that then I feel sorry for you. Landslides + Flooding are the real killers of Hurricanes, not the wind, and even the weakest of Tropical Systems can still bring catastrophic rainfall to areas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Expect A LOT of rainfall and some gusty winds.

You'll probably see at least 4" of rain from Emily.


Could be even higher in areas of mountainous terrain.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh, it's SOOOOO dangerous. Chill out.


Really no reason for you to be like that...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10200
Press, Levi...ya'll still here?
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Quoting dolphin13:


Wow, HUGE generalization!! Those of us who lost homes in Frances and Jeanne, worked around the clock caring for other people while our possessions sat damaged and/or destroyed would beg to differ!! I'm sick being in the bullseye, but don't want anyone else to suffer!! There weren't many parties on the Treasure Coast in 2004-2005, at least not in my circles!! Please don't lump Floridians in one big group!! I witnessed first hand the suffering in our community. I'll take what mother nature hands out because I'm a survivor, but it doesn't mean I have to like it!! Please reconsider your thoughts.


Well said Dolphin.
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BREAKING NEWS!!! THIS JUST IN!!!

I can tell you that there is a 100% chance that Emily is going to HIT SOMETHING!!!

lmao!

Think we all can agree this will NOT be a "Fish Storm"
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Quoting kmanislander:
The image below shows the weakness over S Fla with the high from the East and the high to the West and the trough digging South between the two. The two highs will attempt to bridge.

Emily's forward speed and relative weak condition will determine how far West it gets to before feeling the pull of the trough. The NHC forecast track is predicated on the system pulling up in response to the trough. My own view, FWIW, is that unless Emily slows down and deepens some more it will likely push to a position close to the gap between Jamaica and Western Haiti.

In other words, more West than presently forecast. The forward motion is too fast now for any significant deepening as the area of lowest pressure is out to the West of the deep convection.

Thank you kman.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Expect A LOT of rainfall and some gusty winds.

You'll probably see at least 4" of rain from Emily.

I've said this a lot with this system, but, Aww man!
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Thanks for the clarification Cloudburst, Mossyhead, and Kman.
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Quoting dolphin13:


Wow, HUGE generalization!! Those of us who lost homes in Frances and Jeanne, worked around the clock caring for other people while our possessions sat damaged and/or destroyed would beg to differ!! I'm sick being in the bullseye, but don't want anyone else to suffer!! There weren't many parties on the Treasure Coast in 2004-2005, at least not in my circles!! Please don't lump Floridians in one big group!! I witnessed first hand the suffering in our community. I'll take what mother nature hands out because I'm a survivor, but it doesn't mean I have to like it!! Please reconsider your thoughts.
cant agree more Charley destroyed port Charlotte in 2004 as well as my whole house her comment as a whole was not warranted
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Hurricane Preparation 2011




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Just as I thought they would, the National Hurricane Center based the intensity off the LGEM model, which can be considered reliable for intensity forecasts. It is the model the National Hurricane Center favors, and it is quite accurate. Brings Emily up to hurricane status at the end of the period.

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Quoting lovejessicaa9:


Now I'm 1000% positive that you're Jason. Those are from Invest91, not from Emily. Stop putting out false and potentially dangerous information!

POOF!
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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