Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

Share this Blog
13
+

Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 466 - 416

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting KoritheMan:


I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.


Its gonna take the avenue between High Pressure over the Western/Cen. GOM and the Azores High. Now where exactly that Avenue sets up is the million dollar question and where you see the models trying to sort that out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Florida and also the rest of the East Coast will have a good idea by Weds whether they will be affected by Emily. If Emily starts making the turn and cross the Eastern D.R then you guys are out of the woods. If you see this storm moving South of the D.R and making the turn between Haiti and Cuba then you may have a storm on your hands.


Thanks weatherguy, I will certainly keep an eye on it here in VA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


It could still enter the Gulf of Mexico. It's not as if some of the models aren't predicting such. There's still a lot up in the air though, including how much troughing we actually get over the western Atlantic, and how strong Emily becomes.


Thanks. I will continue to watch and wait. Don really had us hopeful for some serious rain. We did get some rain in spots, but no where near what is needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where's the psychic from last year? Has she been back this year? It was sure fun to mess with her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:


I'm gonna get nailed for saying this but..

Emily is putting on a little weight!
But if she asks if those clouds make her look fat PLEASE say no... LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
461. 7544
does anyone know what time is the next flight est plz tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.


Plausible, but that is a number of days away. Much can change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:


Just remember that steering pattern is always evolving and changing.


I agree with you 03... If it was to get into the GOM, it would be no further than the e. GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.


agree with comment of central panhandle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RescueAFR:
Interesting how the NHC has South Fla in the "cone" at 1900 hrs, yet when you look at the latest model runs and ensemble models all at 1900 hrs EST as well..none are bringing the cyclone to FLA at all?

The TC experts at the NHC know too well what some here often forget: computer models are just one aid to forecasting; they aren't the end all, be all of weather predicting. The people there have hundreds of years combined hurricane tracking experience, and they use that experience in making calls as to direction and speed. It doesn't mean they're always right, nor does it mean the models are always wrong. But it does mean at least this much: if the professionals don't live and die by models, neither should any of us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


What about rainfall potential? Could it stretch as far north in Greensboro, NC?


Unless it moves inland, no. In the event of a recurvature (which I find more likely if the system makes it to North Carolina's latitude), you guys would be on the weaker (left) side of the storm, so any significant rains would be confined to coastal and offshore areas.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
I looked at the models that are on the weather underground page and they show the storm going out to sea and not hitting Florida or anyone at all....so where did the nhc get their info from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




00Z Emily Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL!

+1


+2 LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:


Its basically impossible to get this too far into the GOM because High Pressure will be parked over the Western and Central GOM.


I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting Ryuujin:


I'm gonna get nailed for saying this but..

Emily is putting on a little weight!


Wow, the Antillies sure are getting pounded tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I doubt it makes it that far, but do keep in mind that there are sizable track errors at five days and beyond.


What about rainfall potential? Could it stretch as far north in Greensboro, NC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:






The blocking high to the north of Hispaniola is clearly visible on the above WV loop. I would not be surprised if Emily remains on the more westerly track, and passes south of Hispaiola, and just north of Jamaica.
Yep the map is pretty telling at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Trying to lighten things up a bit since the tension is so high in here...how about if everyone from Florida to N. Carolina all get out our fans...face them all east and turn them on high...it may cause enough shear to tear it up or enuf wind to turn it back out to sea...with all the other things going on in here, lets face it...its right on track!


LOL! Pointing my fans to the East here in NC. Darn, does that mean I have to open the window? Too hot here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well not every storm is killed by Hispaniola. It may die, but a lot of them regenerate as well. The models are also not in agreement on Hispaniola destroying Emily. Many of them keep her intact, not that they're particularly good at predicting the behavior of storms that move over that island.


True, but the forecast shows a diagonal crossing over high terrain which implies a significant amount of time over hostile territory. If that track verifies I would not expect much of the system to emerge off the North Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


Steering Layer 400-850mb

Even if Emily was to rapidly strengthen into a minimal hurricane, it would be under a very similar steering pattern.


Just remember that steering pattern is always evolving and changing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Emily's track will be NEAR or WEST of Barahona haiti. I don't think the storm is going to make landfall any further east than that. So if the storm makes landfall before reaching Cuba it will be on the western end near Barahona haiti
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Florida and also the rest of the East Coast will have a good idea by Weds whether they will be affected by Emily. If Emily starts making the turn and cross the Eastern D.R then you guys are out of the woods. If you see this storm moving South of the D.R and making the turn between Haiti and Cuba then you may have a storm on your hands.

i think you're right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm in tampa bay area, and i have my fingers crossed that if the cone is correct(i know thats rare lol) that it's nothing stronger than a cat 1 or 2. seen a few of those, and no real damage to speak of, so i kinda enjoyed them' :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Emily looks like she might have what it takes to develop on her own terms, rather than be inhibited by wind shear and dry air when she's slowly seperating from the hostile environment.

I find storms like this - the ones that take so long to spin up because of certain environmental factors, as well as persist nthrough it all - wind up stronger for it in the long run. If she looks relatively impressive under high wind shear (she kind of looks like a fetus O_o), then she just might prove to be more dangerous than we think.

Who knows, I can't say I do - I'm moreso a lurker than anything else. Emily is the first storm to actually impress me this year... although Cindy did somewhat: I still think she may have briefly become a minimal hurricane, and the NHC missed it because she was too far north and east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Steering Layer 400-850mb

Even if Emily was to rapidly strengthen into a minimal hurricane, it would be under a very similar steering pattern. IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting weatherguy03:
Florida and also the rest of the East Coast will have a good idea by Weds whether they will be affected by Emily. If Emily starts making the turn and cross the Eastern D.R then you guys are out of the woods. If you see this storm moving South of the D.R and making the turn between Haiti and Cuba then you may have a storm on your hands.
I agree---I always keep my eyes on the ones that sneak up thru Cuba!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I'm gonna get nailed for saying this but..

Emily is putting on a little weight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting how the NHC has South Fla in the "cone" at 1900 hrs, yet when you look at the latest model runs and ensemble models all at 1900 hrs EST as well..none are bringing the cyclone to FLA at all?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Trying to lighten things up a bit since the tension is so high in here...how about if everyone from Florida to N. Carolina all get out our fans...face them all east and turn them on high...it may cause enough shear to tear it up or enuf wind to turn it back out to sea...with all the other things going on in here, lets face it...its right on track!


I like that idea!!! I am a fan freak and have 7 of them, not counting the ceiling fans:)Extra Shear power!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:
So far none of the models have taken this entity( for lack of a better word) anywhere near Texas and they are the ones who would benefit from the rains


Its basically impossible to get this too far into the GOM because High Pressure will be parked over the Western and Central GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Trying to lighten things up a bit since the tension is so high in here...how about if everyone from Florida to N. Carolina all get out our fans...face them all east and turn them on high...it may cause enough shear to tear it up or enuf wind to turn it back out to sea...with all the other things going on in here, lets face it...its right on track!


LOL!

+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So... is Emily still tracking more west than WNW? Because if that's the case these models will flip flop back to the west once again by morning time...

Mobile, AL to North Carolina is probably where I'd say the "bullseye" is now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
273 and 275: Old model tracks


Jason doesn't like the new tracks, because they don't go out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
I know Greensboro, NC is well inland. Should I be concerned since I am heading over there on Aug 8 2011?


I doubt it makes it that far, but do keep in mind that there are sizable track errors at five days and beyond.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
From Dominica via StormCarib site:

....Amazingly the power held throughout the worst of it, which lasted a couple of hours at most, and�apart from a few flicks there were no surges either in the�current. Compliments to the electricity company -Domlec!
However, throughout the capital there was minor-moderate street flooding, but this has since subsided as the rains have mostly tapered off though at present a�light shower is now falling. Thankfully there were no strong wind gusts with these intense lines of thunderstorms/ thundershowers in Roseau, however, other parts of the island might be able to report differently.

*UPDATE - AS OF 7:30P.M. Tropical storm Emily has formed since the well defined circulation center finally formed near Dominica. We are MOST THANKFUL TO GOD for this LATE FORMATION OF EMILY since it meant we got the most weak 'version' of the storm so to speak. We may get some more moderate -heavy rain later but as for now its light rain in the south with no strong winds...no one is complaining! Most likely it may get a bit gusty later tonight but for now Emily has been a most proper Lady. May she�be ever so gentle to all in her future path...�
Let us all keep safe and sound during this Hurricane season!

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.sh tml


Amen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lesser Antilles Radar Link


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trying to lighten things up a bit since the tension is so high in here...how about if everyone from Florida to N. Carolina all get out our fans...face them all east and turn them on high...it may cause enough shear to tear it up or enuf wind to turn it back out to sea...with all the other things going on in here, lets face it...its right on track!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida and also the rest of the East Coast will have a good idea by Weds whether they will be affected by Emily. If Emily starts making the turn and cross the Eastern D.R then you guys are out of the woods. If you see this storm moving South of the D.R and making the turn between Haiti and Cuba then you may have a storm on your hands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:






The blocking high to the north of Hispaniola is clearly visible on the above WV loop. I would not be surprised if Emily remains on the more westerly track, and passes south of Hispaiola, and just north of Jamaica.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So far none of the models have taken this entity( for lack of a better word) anywhere near Texas and they are the ones who would benefit from the rains
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
420. j2008
Quoting SETexas74:
The GFDL shows more west movement, and the cones always move. I'd be wary in any costal area at this point. But hopefully, Emily will turn out to sea

At this time I think it is nearly impossible for Emily to go out to sea without hitting land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kibkaos:
Okay I have been looking at Emily. I don't see this one going up toward the Carolinas. I know I am probably doing a little hopeful thinking over here in Brazoria County South East Texas. My question is who thinks this storm may come into the GOM? Looking forward to your answers.


Even if it did somehow make it into the SE GOM, there is no way it's busting through that stubborn texas ridge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know Greensboro, NC is well inland. Should I be concerned since I am heading over there on Aug 8 2011?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


6 of one and half a dozen of the other as we say in the Caribbean. Highly unlikely it remains intact as a TS crossing over Haiti which is what the guidance shows


Well not every storm is killed by Hispaniola. It may die, but a lot of them regenerate as well. The models are also not in agreement on Hispaniola destroying Emily. Many of them keep her intact, not that they're particularly good at predicting the behavior of storms that move over that island.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Kibkaos:
Okay I have been looking at Emily. I don't see this one going up toward the Carolinas. I know I am probably doing a little hopeful thinking over here in Brazoria County South East Texas. My question is who thinks this storm may come into the GOM? Looking forward to your answers.


It could still enter the Gulf of Mexico. It's not as if some of the models aren't predicting such. There's still a lot up in the air though, including how much troughing we actually get over the western Atlantic, and how strong Emily becomes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877

Viewing: 466 - 416

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
57 °F
Overcast