Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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SAB at T2.5; TAFB at T3.0.

AL, 91, 201108012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1530N, 6180W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, WB, VI, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 3.0 BO CRVD BND

AL, 91, 201108012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1570N, 6180W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=2.5 FTBO MET

A blend of this data would equate roughly to winds of 45mph.

With Recon going in to investigate this system in a few hours, I doubt they increase the wind speed, but it's something to think about.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Ryuujin:


I'm sorry, but lying and telling people that a Tropical Cyclone will turn out to sea IS dangerous. If you don't see that then I feel sorry for you. Landslides Flooding are the real killers of Hurricanes, not the wind, and even the weakest of Tropical Systems can still bring catastrophic rainfall to areas.
Totally agree. Hurricane Mitch is a great example of this.
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We do not need a GOM storm, question will be when it turns northward. Hispaniola will spare south florida at this point.
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Nice to see so many people from the islands on tonight -- some haven't been here in a few years. Good luck to all of you, and let us know what happens in your part of the world, we are always interested.
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Quoting yoboi:


i have noticed crawfish migrating north this eve....


where are u?
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Taz you there?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Is there any chance Emily turns into an Andrew? I say slim.


Slim to none at this point.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
Tropical Atlantic Link
Link

It Looks like things are getting kicked off in the Atlantic.
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Quoting lucreto:
One recon flight was canceled tomorrow for some odd reason, probably budgetary.


Blame it on the GOP, not a US citizen , but imo they are down right nasty, sure had the democrats by where the wool is short& the problem with the democrats they only have the wool, nothing else! case closed!!
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504. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.


i have noticed crawfish migrating north this eve....
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Quoting NOSinger:
I'm sure I'll get crucified for stating my opinion...but here goes....this storm is moving west...My opinion is if this keeps moving the way it seems to be..ALL the gulf coast better keep a good eye on this one...The gulf is a HOT TUB right now!!


the gulf was a hot tub for Don and we saw what happen there..but I agree..everyone should watch this storm..
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I expect the cone to shift a bit to the east, possible leaving some of Florida out, and more of the Bahamas in. Obviously, it's called the cone of uncertainty for a reason. It can change at any time, and I think we should keep in tune to those small shifts to the east or west, as they have an impact.

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Quoting klew136:

Is not the Mona passage between the two islands, and this area can encourage a storm??


The Mona passage is between PR and Hispaniola. Emily is not likely to track near or through there IMO.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
I'm sure I'll get crucified for stating my opinion...but here goes....this storm is moving west...My opinion is if this keeps moving the way it seems to be..ALL the gulf coast better keep a good eye on this one...The gulf is a HOT TUB right now!!
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Emily still not organised. there are still a number of vortices within the system. there is a vigorous one at 15n 57w,and another at 15n 59.5w. the one at 15n 57 w has a lot of low clouds converging to the area.E mily will take some time to strenghen
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Quoting SLU:
According to the radar, it seems that the center of EMILY could be reforming near Martinique near the deepest convection. The old center WSW of Dominica seems to be weakening as well as the convection associated with it.

Link



I thought we were done with this!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Unless it moves inland, no. In the event of a recurvature (which I find more likely if the system makes it to North Carolina's latitude), you guys would be on the weaker (left) side of the storm, so any significant rains would be confined to coastal and offshore areas.


I hope a miracle happens and it makes it inland. By the way when you mean inland? What state specifically should it make landfall in order for us to get beneficial rains in NC? Also if we were on the left side of the storm would be more prone to tornadoes from the outerbands of future hurricane Emily?
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so what will be causing the curve to the northwest? Is there a high in the gulf, or is there just steering currents? and i know this way off topic and i may receive some flak but is it worth creating a facebook account or is it just hype? (sorry if anyone is offended for me being off topic)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
492. xcool
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491. JLPR2
Quoting SLU:
According to the radar, it seems that the center of EMILY could be reforming near Martinique near the deepest convection. The old center WSW of Dominica seems to be weakening as well as the convection associated with it.

Link



That would mean throw the 00z models to the trash and wait for the 06z models. Ahh! I will end up buying head-on because of Emily. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
Is there any chance Emily turns into an Andrew? I say slim.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
489. HCW
Quoting connie1976:
I feel bad....I posted a comment earlier and I said not hitting anybody....which I meant not anybody in the US....I'm very sorry...I didn't mean it...


How about the 4 million who live in P.R a US Territory ?
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Quoting zoomiami:
Hey Tigger! Great to see you around again.

Seems like old times -- trying to figure out what these silly storms are going to do. No naked swirls to watch though.


Poppin in and out...been trying to get the stuff done that I have been meaning to do just in case Emily decides to be an East Coast Sweeper.....
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
These sre the true Computer Models for Emily at 8PM
Not from 91L earlier in the day. Just to clarify they have definitely moved East and North

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at2 01105_model.html

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Gosh the models shifting in each run is making my head dizzy!
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Quoting connie1976:
I feel bad....I posted a comment earlier and I said not hitting anybody....which I meant not anybody in the US....I'm very sorry...I didn't mean it...


very adult of you connie...no crow for you...i threw it away :)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Hey Tigger! Great to see you around again.

Seems like old times -- trying to figure out what these silly storms are going to do. No naked swirls to watch though.
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Quoting kmanislander:


True, but the forecast shows a diagonal crossing over high terrain which implies a significant amount of time over hostile territory. If that track verifies I would not expect much of the system to emerge off the North Coast.

Is not the Mona passage between the two islands, and this area can encourage a storm??
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Quoting zoomiami:
My brother was at the Walmart in Homestead & it was packed. Called to see if he had missed something! Didn't watch local news at dinner time, don't know if they started talking about it possibly coming to Florida.


ZOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
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The NHC has Emily trucking right along. From the Leewards to Florida in 5 days. I don't recall a cyclone moving that fast, but if it does I would think that would diminish any lingering over any of the DR or Cuba and also not give it as much time on the other side. Unless it gets into the GOM.
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Quoting 7544:
does anyone know what time is the next flight est plz tia


I believe 2am but others are more knowledgeable than me.
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I feel bad....I posted a comment earlier and I said not hitting anybody....which I meant not anybody in the US....I'm very sorry...I didn't mean it...
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College Station, TX, tied a 13 year old record high today, it reached 106.
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472. LBAR
Looks like the LLC is further East?

Also, last night accuweather was talking about an upper-level low hanging around over NW Flordia as Emily approaches. Any future runs of models still show this?
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471. SLU
According to the radar, it seems that the center of EMILY could be reforming near Martinique near the deepest convection. The old center WSW of Dominica seems to be weakening as well as the convection associated with it.

Martinique radar

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Is recon going back out at 0600Z or 1200Z, or both for that matter? TIA

Also with recon do they have differing shifts or are the same people who flew out into Emily when she was 91L this morning the same that have been in the air pretty much all day?
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My brother was at the Walmart in Homestead & it was packed. Called to see if he had missed something! Didn't watch local news at dinner time, don't know if they started talking about it possibly coming to Florida.
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Hah, the ants returned to my house.
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It's early... still interested in the models after we get a good COC going.

If it does make it to Florida I'll be live streaming - will post a link in my blog.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.


Its gonna take the avenue between High Pressure over the Western/Cen. GOM and the Azores High. Now where exactly that Avenue sets up is the million dollar question and where you see the models trying to sort that out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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