Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting connie1976:



I didn't mean it like that and I apologized.....you come off as kind of rude sometimes yourself...
I didn't see ur apology until after I typed the comment. I didn't mean it "like that", either.... just thought it kinda strange you said it didn't hit anything, and was teasing at you a bit. I guess I've had too many days of pple saying Emily was going to be a "fish storm" at the time when it was headed for the entire NE Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola, so it came out different from what I meant....

I do admit I have no problem being rude to people, but I usually only do it if they've been rude themselves. I'm sorry if I offended you.
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Well, first time in THE CONE (Tampa Bay Area) for quite a while, not a particularly good feeling. However I realize that the models will do the "windshield wiper" effect this far out. However, for you weather experts out there, what model cycle is generally more accurate (for the GFS and similar that run the intermediate) the 0z and 12z runs or the intermediate 06Z and 18Z?
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One recon flight was canceled tomorrow for some odd reason, probably budgetary.

The NOAA Budget is Secure thru the Fiscal Period

And the AFR HH Budget is culled from the DoD.

The NOAA G-4 Flight was for tomorrow @ 7pm CDT cancelled,,not a penetrating AFR HH TEAL flight.

...if you read the POD,,its very clear.

The G-4 is tasked for later on weds @ 7pm CDT, as the G-4 info collected is sufficient for now


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z

3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z.



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Watching storms for 40 years and the ancecdotal evidence is the storms run more Westerly than predictions until the Apex of the season.
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Quoting Kibkaos:


Houston TX


awesome a fellow houstonian!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is interesting. Notice the coordinates of the TVCN in the ATCF file:

AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 96, 250N, 788W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 108, 263N, 801W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 120, 274N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 132, 278N, 830W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 144, 296N, 826W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

But if you look at the graph posted on Raleigh website, the plot never goes west of 80W:



Anyone know if this website gets a different data input or something?


not liking that...i am at 80, 32....
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
Can someone confirm that HH's are flying into Emily tonight?



FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Take off in 2 hours.
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


Yes mam, i'm from Houston, Texas so i consider myself a GOM resident even though were just a little way from the coast, the traffic just makes it seem far :)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
The models have shifted East!

Looks like Florida may not get this System!!!

Horray! Sorry JFV if you want to experience a Hurricane please go to the Middle of the Ocean!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting BrandiQ:


I did see someone on here earlier saying they were gonna stay up till 5am because they wanted to see the 2(0600Z)AM flight...
That was me, LOL. It's summer for me now, so I stay up late regardless, but this time I'll just be tracking Emily lol.
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555. JRRP
,
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.

also from the FL panhandle destin area...
Member Since: June 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
Quoting stormpetrol:


Blame it on the GOP, not a US citizen , but imo they are down right nasty, sure had the democrats by where the wool is short& the problem with the democrats they only have the wool, nothing else! case closed!!

At least the GOP is trying to do what their constituents voted them to do. Maybe Emily can turn into a SUPERCANE and go take out all those fools so we can start fresh.
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


Houston TX
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


Terra Ceia Bay on the west coast just south of St. Pete.
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


SW FL Here. Keeping one eye on Emily. ;)
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Quoting charlottefl:
Definitely think a lot depends on how strong Emily is when she crosses over Hispanola, the tighter the core is the better chance it has of decoupling in the mountains.


Another thing is how long she spends going across the D.RR.,Faster being better, also be a lot better if her core passed over the east end of the island as the bigger mountains are in the middle of the island.
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you can see Emilys COC on radar it seems to be moving WSW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
If the track jogs east I'm wondering if this storm could pose a threat to the area between the savannah river and kitty hawk.
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546. yoboi
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Can someone confirm that HH's are flying into Emily tonight?
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Can someone confirm that HH's are flying into Emily tonight?


they are flying in at 12 am
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Just LOOK at all that action over Florida today, and not a drop of rain. I was hoping to refill my rain bucket (too small to be a barrel) I water my tomatoes with. Of course, by this time next week I may have grown gills and webbed feet, if the cone holds true. :P
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Haiti and the Dominique Republic are countries.. And they will likely have several dangerous and fatal mudslide and flooding problems should Emily trek over it.


The kid is 12 and very immature; he actually had the nerve to tell people in the path of this to NOT be prepared because it was a waste of money

someone like that should not be allowed to post here
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Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
The G4 flight for tomorrow (actually 0000Z which was 2hrs ago) was canceled.

I hate to ask again but I think the blog might have eaten my question.
Does anyone know if the recon flight will happen at 0600Z or 1200Z??

This is what NHC has:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

TIA


I did see someone on here earlier saying they were gonna stay up till 5am because they wanted to see the 2(0600Z)AM flight...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is interesting. Notice the coordinates of the TVCN in the ATCF file:

AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 96, 250N, 788W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 108, 263N, 801W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 120, 274N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 132, 278N, 830W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 144, 296N, 826W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

But if you look at the graph posted on Raleigh website, the plot never goes west of 80˚W:






Is interesting. Look for a shift eastward tonight from the NHC. However, not quite as far as the models are showing. Somewhere between the TVCN and the FL coast.


This is a dual track system, IMO. From current to landfall then, splash down and beyond.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
Can someone confirm that HH's are flying into Emily tonight?
Wolf Blitzer just said their funds have been cut.

jk
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting weatherjr:
Finally, I give 0.000000000000000000000000001 % probability to Emily for becoming something important to be recorded in the history of any of the countries that bit is supposed to afffect.


Haiti and the Dominique Republic are countries.. And they will likely have several dangerous and fatal mudslide and flooding problems should Emily trek over it.
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Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting robj144:


I believe I heard it called the cone of "unsuredness" on CNN a few years back. I forget by who though.


Yeah, usually it means all the same thing. :P
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Quoting cloudburst2011:


im sorry i wasnt speaking about all the florida people just on this blog...most people in fla have common sense...well i wish you luck when it gets to you...


Sorry Cloudburst, didn't mean to jump your "doo doo" like that. You are right, there are those who didn't have to suffer the wrath of the four hurricanes that year that make retarded remarks about wanting a hurricane, but I certainly hope they are the exception and not the rule. We are planning my grandson's 5th birthday party in SeaWorld this weekend and he's going to be heartbroken if we can't go!! Just wanted you to hear from those of us who went through the worst of it, lost alot because of it, and really aren't interested in doing it again anytime soon, actually ever. On a good note, the National Guard and local Fire Department grilled up some Elk once Frances passed and it was much better than the uncrustables we'd been eating for 4 days during and after the storm:)
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This is interesting. Notice the coordinates of the TVCN in the ATCF file:

AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 96, 250N, 788W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 108, 263N, 801W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 120, 274N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 132, 278N, 830W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2011080200, 03, TVCN, 144, 296N, 826W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

But if you look at the graph posted on Raleigh website, the plot never goes west of 80W:



Anyone know if this website gets a different data input or something?
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Can someone confirm that HH's are flying into Emily tonight?
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
I expect the cone to shift a bit to the east, possible leaving some of Florida out, and more of the Bahamas in. Obviously, it's called the cone of uncertainty for a reason. It can change at any time, and I think we should keep in tune to those small shifts to the east or west, as they have an impact.



I believe I heard it called the cone of "unsuredness" on CNN a few years back. I forget by who though.
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Quoting zoomiami:
My brother was at the Walmart in Homestead & it was packed. Called to see if he had missed something! Didn't watch local news at dinner time, don't know if they started talking about it possibly coming to Florida.
Hey, zoo.... sure hope it fizzes... best of all worlds for me. If it doesn't, those eager beavers in the Carolinas can have it... I REALLY don't want to imagine, much less experience, no A/C for days.... lol... and it's cool here compared with places in FL.... They had a spot about it on the local TV channel wx.... I'll bet it's front page news in tomorrow's paper.
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Emily is holding on to this ULAC. The center is there and still on the TFP's IMO.

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Quoting zoomiami:
Nice to see so many people from the islands on tonight -- some haven't been here in a few years. Good luck to all of you, and let us know what happens in your part of the world, we are always interested.
thanks!
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there's no such thing as a guarantee... there a myth like leprechauns
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
The circulation center appears to be near 15.3 N and 63.3 W based upon the shortwave loop.
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Quoting connie1976:
I looked at the models that are on the weather underground page and they show the storm going out to sea and not hitting Florida or anyone at all....so where did the nhc get their info from?
The NHC are the final word on these things. Not WU.
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The local TV weatherwoman said LA/miss are "in the clear". Our prayers and candles are with Fla tonight!
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting BahaHurican:
You mean it didn't even hit those little bitty islands right there????? Waow...




I didn't mean it like that and I apologized.....you come off as kind of rude sometimes yourself...
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The G4 flight for tomorrow (actually 0000Z which was 2hrs ago) was canceled.

I hate to ask again but I think the blog might have eaten my question.
Does anyone know if the recon flight will happen at 0600Z or 1200Z??

This is what NHC has:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

TIA
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Accuweather take on tropical storm Emily..sound like they going with the CMC..LOL

Link

This storm's path is still uncertain. However, we have every reason to believe it will reach at least tropical storm status and could even become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2011 before the week is over, in Caribbean waters.

If, and these are big if's at this point, the storm does become strong enough to turn north and survive the trip through the Greater Antilles gauntlet, it could be drawn in close to Florida, cross Florida reaching the Gulf of Mexico, or it could even make a right turn up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

"Computer models probably will not have a good handle on the system until it gets stronger, hence the uncertainty at this point," Mancuso said.


This graphic shows one possible avenue for the system to follow. However, a track more to the west is still possible.

"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean," Mancuso added.

Initially, heavy rain will be the problem. Strong winds, building seas and more heavy rain will follow as the storm strengthens.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at T3.0.

AL, 91, 201108012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1530N, 6180W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, WB, VI, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 3.0 BO CRVD BND

AL, 91, 201108012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1570N, 6180W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=2.5 FTBO MET

A blend of this data would equate roughly to winds of 45mph.

With Recon going in to investigate this system in a few hours, I doubt they increase the wind speed, but it's something to think about.


Emily does look like she's getting her act together - satellite appearance does show that she is getting bigger and signs of organization are evident.
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Some need to realize that Hispaniola MAY NOT destroy the storm, some on here make it like its a guarantee
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...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 01/2330Z. EMILY IS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

And its still tracking West and just South of the forcasted points as seen in water vapor
This storm will put down some ungodly amounts of water over that whole area in a day or two excpect floods in the low lying areas and mudslides in the mountains then on to Florida?

Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You mean it didn't even hit those little bitty islands right there????? Waow...



I believe it is right over the little bitty islands... lol
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Quoting weatherjr:
Finally, I give 0.000000000000000000000000001 % probability to Emily for becoming something important to be recorded in the history of any of the countries that bit is supposed to afffect.


a decimal point followed by 24 or some odd zeroes that's quite an exact number, imo i would give it about a decimal followed by 32 zeroes :P
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
SAB at T2.5; TAFB at T3.0.

AL, 91, 201108012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1530N, 6180W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, WB, VI, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 3.0 BO CRVD BND

AL, 91, 201108012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1570N, 6180W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=2.5 FTBO MET

A blend of this data would equate roughly to winds of 45mph.

With Recon going in to investigate this system in a few hours, I doubt they increase the wind speed, but it's something to think about.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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