Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Could somebody point out the trough that's supposed to turn Emily to the north?
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Quoting GHOSTY1:
whats with the people saying eastern or northeastern turn? what will cause this turn? (i realize this sounded a little rude but no rudeness meant im just a little lazy to go back and erase :))


there is a high that is PREDICTED to come off the east coast around bermuda and it is SUPPOSED to follow it...all timing...this is if they meet up at the right time, that high doesn't flatten out...etc...it will continuously change over the next few days
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League City here...lots of fellow Texans just hoping for some rain...
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Quoting animalrsq:


I'm really hoping NOT!


Just models.... Too far away in time; with 91L and now Emily, Anything can happen...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting texwarhawk:


And another here-- actually just north of Sugar Land but my zip says Houston lol


Same here, i live in the Jersey Village area and were our own city but most of us just put Houston, were surrounded by Houston and our Houstonians sounds better than Jersey Villagites (thats just a weird name) but got the best cops though, they rock!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting Dennis8:
Houston, Texas-Heights-3 miles north downtown-8 tropical storms/hurricanes so far in my 48 years
6 miles north of DT
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Back in the Cone again.....:/
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


I'm from the Gulfport/Biloxi, MS area
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models will continue to shift. Nobody is safe from anything just yet. Although it would be nice if the fake JFV went out into the ocean and stayed there.

Oh wow, you're pretty far north. 25.8N; 80.2W-ish here. :/


The Current NHC Cone has it making a Direct Landfall on my Location.....

Your saying that the models could shift back west in the morning?

So i still need to stay up and watch this?
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


I am on Plash Island in Gulf Shores, AL.
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Bring on da rain!Boca Raton is still in extreme drought and we are in the direct path :)
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BaHaHurricane,

I'm sorry for being offended.... I'm overly sensitive... I need to think about what I post sometimes.... sorry about that!
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Historically, not a whole lot of recurves away from Florida East coast. A lot more traversing into the Gulf when near this position.
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2330 UTC MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND
ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 01/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting RMM34667:


FL west central coast.. (AKA Tampa Bay).. watching intently what might unfold!
Im in Biloxi.
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what would happen if napalm or a nuclear device were detonated inside a hurricane or tropical storm would it tear the systems llc apart and incinerate the water vapor?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Link


I'm really hoping NOT!
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Quoting gbreezegirl:
I am right out side of Pensacola, Gulf Breeze.
Gulf Breeze
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It isn't a weakening trend when you have -80C cloud tops firing off on the eastern side of the system.



See post 589
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


awesome a fellow houstonian!
northside H-Town
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593. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
One recon flight was canceled tomorrow for some odd reason, probably budgetary.

The NOAA Budget is Secure thru the Fiscal Period

And the AFR HH Budget is culled from the DoD.

The NOAA G-4 Flight was for tomorrow @ 7pm CDT cancelled,,not a penetrating AFR HH TEAL flight.

...if you read the POD,,its very clear.

The G-4 is tasked for later on weds @ 7pm CDT, as the G-4 info collected is sufficient for now


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z

3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z.





it cost alot more to fly a jet G4 than a c-130
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whats with the people saying eastern or northeastern turn? what will cause this turn? (i realize this sounded a little rude but no rudeness meant im just a little lazy to go back and erase :))
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Houston, Texas-Heights-3 miles north downtown-8 tropical storms/hurricanes so far in my 48 years
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Quoting Twinkster:



0z and 12z no doubt


Thanks! That's what I thought but couldn't remember. Wonder when all the data from the hurricane hunter planes will be incorporated into the models...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


However, large blowup nearby.


That blow up is about 180 miles east of the area of lowest pressure. Not a good sign for Emily.
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When the models stay consistent for 3 runs or so, then it's fairly safe to assume they have a good handle on things. I am of course referring to anything less than 120 hours.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models will continue to shift. Nobody is safe from anything just yet. Although it would be nice if the fake JFV went out into the ocean and stayed there.

Oh wow, you're pretty far north. 25.8N; 80.2W-ish here. :/


Charleston...but with those plots, it makes it a sweeper, and it would pass right by my house as it went back ene....BLAH
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That was me, LOL. It's summer for me now, so I stay up late regardless, but this time I'll just be tracking Emily lol.


You are in Miami. If this thing hits Miami I wish I was there for the hurricane party lol. I have never been to one but always here about them.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Cloud tops warming just east of the circulation center. Perhaps a combination of the fast forward speed and the not so favourable eastern caribbean.

Could be the start of a weakening trend for now.


It isn't a weakening trend when you have -80C cloud tops firing off on the eastern side of the system. Overall, Emily is still an impressive storm and is liking strengthening right now.

45 mph at 11PM, or will they wait until recon is out to up the intensity?

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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
The models have shifted East!

Looks like Florida may not get this System!!!

Horray! Sorry JFV if you want to experience a Hurricane please go to the Middle of the Ocean!!!!!!!!


You do realize that the system wont even be near the Bahamas/Florida area till the end of this week, if even there. Models are bound to move around greatly. Some models aren't even in agreement still.
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Quoting ncstorm:


the gulf was a hot tub for Don and we saw what happen there..but I agree..everyone should watch this storm..


in all fairness "Don was a weak storm when he got into the gulf" which is exactly why he didn't respond to the water temp. The 10-15 kt wind shear was able to knock him around. A much stronger system such as CAT 1 Hurricane Emily is going to respond a lot better. Weak wind shear is not going to bully a hurricane like it does a weak TS like "Don"
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T.C.F.W.
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.35N/62.60W
TRACK
15.8N/64.7W
16.3N/65.3W
16.8N/65.9W
17.1N/66.3W
17.7N/66.8W
18.2N/67.3W


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Quoting tiggeriffic:


not liking that...i am at 80, 32....


Sucks for you!!!!

But Florida is Spared!
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Quoting kmanislander:
Cloud tops warming just east of the circulation center. Perhaps a combination of the fast forward speed and the not so favourable eastern caribbean.

Could be the start of a weakening trend for now.


However, large blowup nearby.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


awesome a fellow houstonian!


And another here-- actually just north of Sugar Land but my zip says Houston lol
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


FL west central coast.. (AKA Tampa Bay).. watching intently what might unfold!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
Long time lurker here.

Just wanted to say you're all doing a great job keeping track of these storms. Personally I don't speculate, I'm not that good at it and can't read models.

The best thing for Emily? Moderate tropical storm into Texas but that doesn't look like it's going to happen. (I was just there. It's worse than the dust bowl throughout Texas and Oklahoma.)

It's a race against time though. I think that trough is passing through here today or tomorrow as it slides south. (Pittsburgh area.)

I'll keep reading but just wanted to say I enjoy everyone's analysis!
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Well, first time in THE CONE (Tampa Bay Area) for quite a while, not a particularly good feeling. However I realize that the models will do the "windshield wiper" effect this far out. However, for you weather experts out there, what model cycle is generally more accurate (for the GFS and similar that run the intermediate) the 0z and 12z runs or the intermediate 06Z and 18Z?



0z and 12z no doubt
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
The models have shifted East!

Looks like Florida may not get this System!!!

Horray! Sorry JFV if you want to experience a Hurricane please go to the Middle of the Ocean!!!!!!!!
Models will continue to shift. Nobody is safe from anything just yet. Although it would be nice if the fake JFV went out into the ocean and stayed there.

Quoting tiggeriffic:


not liking that...i am at 80, 32....
Oh wow, you're pretty far north. 25.8N; 80.2W-ish here. :/
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That was me, LOL. It's summer for me now, so I stay up late regardless, but this time I'll just be tracking Emily lol.


If I didn't have to work tomorrow morning I would stay up for it. I would like to see if they fine that she is intensifying. It looks that way but it's always nice to see streaming data...
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572. txjac
Houston here too!
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Quoting gorillasurfmonkey:

At least the GOP is trying to do what their constituents voted them to do. Maybe Emily can turn into a SUPERCANE and go take out all those fools so we can start fresh.


I was wondering when hypercane was going to come up lol j/k
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Quoting zoomiami:
Nice to see so many people from the islands on tonight -- some haven't been here in a few years. Good luck to all of you, and let us know what happens in your part of the world, we are always interested.


From P.R. south coast 2 the world
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Quoting Chrisnif:
If the track jogs east I'm wondering if this storm could pose a threat to the area between the savannah river and kitty hawk.


Far too early to say anything. NHC has said the track prediction is very difficult for this storm. Just keep watching it over the next few days.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


Yes mam, i'm from Houston, Texas so i consider myself a GOM resident even though were just a little way from the coast, the traffic just makes it seem far :)
I am right out side of Pensacola, Gulf Breeze.
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Quoting connie1976:



I didn't mean it like that and I apologized.....you come off as kind of rude sometimes yourself...
I didn't see ur apology until after I typed the comment. I didn't mean it "like that", either.... just thought it kinda strange you said it didn't hit anything, and was teasing at you a bit. I guess I've had too many days of pple saying Emily was going to be a "fish storm" at the time when it was headed for the entire NE Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola, so it came out different from what I meant....

I do admit I have no problem being rude to people, but I usually only do it if they've been rude themselves. I'm sorry if I offended you.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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